Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
With a league-leading 21 wins, the Devils are the No. 1 ranked team for the second week in a row, joining the Bruins and Avs to be the only teams to hold down the top spot for multiple weeks.
It’s become a three-headed race at the top with the Knights joining the fray, who moved into the second spot this week thanks to a shootout win in Boston.
The Leafs are the only team to drop out of last week’s top five, but not necessarily through any fault of their own. The Jets had more convincing wins and Toronto’s overtime loss to the Lightning certainly knocked them down a peg, but they bounced back and shut out the Stars thanks to Matt Murray’s 44 saves.
The biggest drops this week include the injury-riddled Avs, the very inconsistent Caps and the Blues, who thankfully just ended a four-game losing streak but have lost six of their past eight. I for one, however, would like to see what Jordan Binnington is like in a full-scale meltdown.
(All fancy stats are 5v5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage and xGF% represents Expected Goals For Percentage.)
1. New Jersey Devils (21-4-1, +39. CF% league rank: 2, xGF% league rank: 1)
The competition was not stiff (Flyers, Hawks), but no one can deny that their season so far has been mighty impressive, and all the stats back up the notion that they’re legitimately good. Their cap situation also ensures that they can be competitive for the next few years. With six pending UFAs, they have more than $35 million in projected cap space next season.
2. Vegas Golden Knights (19-7-1, +23. CF%: 23, xGF%: 10)
Reilly Smith’s shootout winner ended the Bruins’ unbeaten streak at home in an emotional return for the normally stoic Bruce Cassidy, so the Knights slip into second place this week.
3. Boston Bruins (20-3-1, +43. CF%: 7, xGF%: 4)
A revenge game is in the works on Sunday when the Bruins visit Las Vegas, and they can conserve their energy despite playing on the road Wednesday in Colorado and Friday in Arizona.
4. Winnipeg Jets (16-7-1, +18. CF%: 21, xGF%: 22)
Excellent goalie? Check. Strong defense by committee? Check. Low-scoring offense? Check. Gets outshot by their opponents? Check. Wins a lot of games anyway? Check. Yup, it’s a Rick Bowness team alright!
5. Tampa Bay Lightning (15-9-1, +7. CF%: 12, xGF%: 6)
They just won’t go away. An overtime win against the Leafs was yet another dagger into their hearts, and the return of Anthony Cirelli should give them a huge boost. The Lightning are not in the elite tier this season – too much depth lost and Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t been Vezina-caliber – but no one would dare cross them off as a contender.
6. Toronto Maple Leafs (16-5-6, +17. CF%: 17, xGF%: 14)
It’s one of those things where a significant loss ends up bringing everyone together. An overtime loss to the Lightning aside, the Leafs have actually been excellent, and all things considered, they’ve managed their goalie situation very well.
7. Carolina Hurricanes (14-6-6, +4. CF%: 1, xGF%: 2)
The Hurricanes are scoring again, which is great because it’s about time. Their analytics – both possession and expected goals – are top-notch, and once again, they’ve found excellent goaltending from the unlikeliest of sources.
8. Dallas Stars (14-7-5, +22. CF%: 10, xGF%: 16)
There’s no denying the Stars are an excellent team, and the Peter DeBoer bump is real, but they had two uncharacteristic losses this past week. Jake Oettinger got a rare pull in a 6-5 shootout loss, and then the team failed to capitalize on any of their 44 shots against the Leafs. Jason Robertson has been dynamite, but little brother Nick gets the last laugh in that one.
9. New York Islanders (16-11-0, +13. CF%: 19, xGF%: 24)
It’s hard to tell if the Isles are a dark horse or a real contender. After reeling off four wins in a row, they’ve lost three of their past four with their only win coming against the awful Hawks. There have only been two seasons in the cap era where the Isles have had two centers who scored at a near point-per-game pace: 2017-18 with Mathew Barzal (1.04 P/GP) and John Tavares (1.02), and this year with Barzal (1.04) and Brock Nelson (0.96).
10. Florida Panthers (12-10-4, +2. CF%: 3, xGF%: 3)
Like the Leafs, they’re getting results despite missing a top player. Their depth is still somewhat concerning – Eric and Marc Staal were serviceable players last decade, not this one – but that Matthew Tkachuk trade looks like a pretty good win right now with the way he’s been playing.
11. Seattle Kraken (15-7-3, +11. CF%: 9, xGF%: 8)
Too low? Perhaps, but watch the Kraken play and it’s a bit of a wonder how they’ve managed to rattle off so many wins. Their team shooting percentage has come down after scoring just three goals in their past two games, both losses.
12. Detroit Red Wings (13-7-5, +3. CF%: 26, xGF%: 25)
The middle of the pack feels right for the Wings, even though their record seems pretty impressive. Who would’ve guessed their best defenseman this season would be Filip Hronek?
13. Colorado Avalanche (13-9-1, +12. CF%: 15, xGF%: 19)
Oof. Their injury list reads like an all-star team with three forwards from their top six missing from the lineup at the beginning of the season, and that’s not including captain Gabriel Landeskog. The early prognosis is that Nathan MacKinnon will miss about four weeks. One name that’s intriguing: 2021 first-round pick Oskar Olausson, who played only 7:02 in his NHL debut but may get another crack at it now. Also, we’ll see just how good Mikko Rantanen is having to carry this team.
14. Pittsburgh Penguins (14-8-4, +14. CF%: 13, xGF%: 5)
The Pens are hot again with three straight wins despite having one of the worst power plays in the league and with Kasperi Kapanen – of all people – scoring a hat trick. Sidney Crosby is aging like fine wine, and Kris Letang is already skating days after suffering a stroke.
15. Minnesota Wild (13-9-2, +4. CF%: 14, xGF%: 13)
That’s four straight wins for the Wild, which also happens to describe how they did it: a minor scare against the Coyotes, a comeback win against the Oilers and then back-to-back shootout wins despite having travel in between.
16. Calgary Flames (12-10-3, even. CF%: 4, xGF%: 7)
Dan Vladar has won two straight games and started five of their seven games. Is this how the Flames’ season is saved? Or will they have to get another player from the Canucks again?!
17. Edmonton Oilers (14-12-0, -4. CF%: 20, xGF%: 21)
Has any other team squandered more talent than the Oilers? In the post-Gretzky era, the Oilers rank a paltry 28th in points percentage even though they’ve had 16 top-10 picks, including four No. 1 picks.
18. Los Angeles Kings (14-10-4, -2. CF%: 11, xGF%: 9)
The Kings should be a lot better than their record suggests. Their .880 team save percentage is the lowest in the league, according to hockey-reference.com, which is tied with the Kraken last season and the Flyers the season before that. It’s historically bad.
19. Buffalo Sabers (11-13-1, +4. CF%: 6, xGF%: 15)
You get the feeling the Sabers are one hot streak away from making the playoffs. It’s going to have to happen at the right time, but it’s interesting that they have to win more than three games in a row this season, which they’ve only done once (!) since the 2019-20 season. The Peterka-Cozens-Quinn line has also been low-key excellent lately.
20. Nashville Predators (12-9-2, -7. CF%: 18, xGF%: 18)
They’re going to sneak into the playoffs again, aren’t they? The Preds practically created sports purgatory.
21. Vancouver Canucks (11-12-3, -10. CF%: 25, xGF%: 28)
The Canucks remain one of the most fascinating clubs in the league, and their dysfunction has gone from Bluth-level comedy to something more akin to Waystar Royco, where it’s become self-destructive and hard to watch.
22. Montreal Canadiens (13-11-2, -12. CF%: 22, xGF%: 26)
We should’ve seen that Shane Wright revenge game coming a mile away. First, the Habs blow a 4-0 lead after one period, and then Wright gets called up after scoring four goals in five games with Coachella Valley.
23. New York Rangers (12-10-5, +2. CF%: 5, xGF%: 11)
The Rangers have all the pieces but many times look absolutely listless. Gerard Gallant has never lasted more than three full seasons as the head coach with any club.
24. Ottawa Senators (10-14-1, -6. CF%: 8, xGF%: 12)
Just when you think the Sens are turning the corner, they score just two goals against a team with bad goaltending and watch their own starter implode. It’s always one step forward and then two steps back with the Sens.
25. St. Louis Blues (12-14-0, -20. CF%: 28, xGF%: 23)
Losing six of your past seven will certainly drop you down the power rankings like a rock, and Binnington hasn’t won a game in two weeks. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Blues turned to Thomas Greiss for an extended period, literally putting Binnington’s childish antics in a timeout.
26. Washington Capitals (11-12-4, -11. CF%: 16, xGF%: 20)
This feels like a lost season for the Caps, who elected not to make any significant changes to their roster aside from signing Darcy Kuemper, who is now taking a backseat to Charlie Lindgren. With “only” 13 goals and a minus-14 rating in 27 games, this is shaping up to be one of Alex Ovechkin’s worst seasons.
27. Philadelphia Flyers (9-12-5, -21. CF%: 27, xGF%: 29)
Give credit to the Flyers; they play hard but don’t win many games. John Tortorella must’ve known this coming in, and so should everyone else except GM Chuck Fletcher with one glance at their roster, but kudos for not rolling over for the defending champs.
28. Columbus Blue Jackets (8-14-2, -29. CF%: 29, xGF%: 27)
Whether it’s Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo in net, it doesn’t matter. They can’t score consistently, they don’t defend particularly well and their special teams are certainly special in the most derogatory sense of the word.
29. Arizona Coyotes (7-12-4, -20. CF%: 31, xGF%: 32)
The Coyotes have not ranked in the bottom three for seven weeks in a row. This is the part of the program where we start passing out participation medals.
30. Anaheim Ducks (7-17-3, -45. CF%: 30, xGF%: 31)
The most interesting story to come out of Anaheim this year is that they made the rookies carry around Settlers of Catan. They certainly play like hockey comes second.
31. Chicago Blackhawks (7-14-4, -30. CF%: 32, xGF%: 30)
Things perked up for a little while, but there’s no doubt this team is bound for the lottery.
32. San Jose Sharks (8-16-4, -21. CF%: 24, xGF%: 17)
The Sharks are the only team to lose all of their games over the past week, and all in regulation. I think they took the nickname of playing in the ‘Shark Tank’ a little too literally.
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