Before every season, The Athletic ranks the top 100 players in the league, separating them into four tiers. No ranking is ever set in stone and the midseason mark offers a perfect time to reassess and reevaluate.
That’s the nature of the beast as a player’s value is never static; it’s constantly evolving as they break through to new levels or regress below expectations.
We checked in on the preseason list and did some shuffling, introduced fresh faces and removed players who weren’t quite cutting it. The end result is a brand new list of what we think right now, taking into account which players look better and which players look worse after half a season.
Here’s the current list of the NHL’s 100 best skaters as we see it, with a look at which players saw the biggest change from preseason perception along with which players are in and out.
Rising
Jason Robertson (Dom)
Preseason: Tier 3C
Midseason: Tier 2A
We galaxy-brained this one with our original list.
By GSVA, Robertson was already projected to be one of the league’s most valuable players and had more in common with the players in the franchise player tier than the one he was placed in. He stuck out like a sore thumb in the final third of Tier 3. We even said as much at the time, but deferred to those inside the game for Robertson’s placement. Those respected opinions made us question just how real Robertson’s perceived impact was, where we talked ourselves out of a higher placement with excuses about linemate quality and skating.
Any questions about Robertson’s value were shut up quickly as he emerged as a first-half Hart Trophy contender. Robertson ranks fourth in GSVA this year at 3.1 wins thanks to his 29 goals and 60 points in 44 games while doing a lot of his damage at five-on-five. He’s a monster for the Stars and he’s where he should’ve been from the start.
Rasmus Dahlin (Corey)
Preseason: Tier 4C
Midseason: Tier 2C
The Sabers have one of the top offenses in the NHL this season and Dahlin is a big reason why. The no. 1 pick from the 2018 NHL Draft has become what many evaluators hoped he would become. He’s a game-breaking offensive player. His skill level is electric and he can make so many unique plays with the puck with pace. His defense is fine, it will never be his selling point, but when he’s on the ice his team often has the puck and is often getting scoring chances. He has arrived as a true franchise No. 1 defenseman who should be in the Norris conversation often over his career.
Erik Karlsson (Sean)
Preseason: Tier 4C
Midseason: Tier 2C
Karlsson is racking up points at a rate not seen by a defenseman since the late-80s Paul Coffey. What’s more, at even strength, he was untouched by current-day Connor McDavid. Or Sidney Crosby. Or anyone else. Here’s another one: Karlsson’s 2.52 points per 60 was first in the league among D-men and the best among the top 10 in minutes played by a full point. In terms of production, he’s on a different level — enough so to cancel out spotty defensive numbers and make everyone forget about his contract. Maybe.
Jack Hughes (Shayna)
Preseason: Tier 3A
Midseason: Tier 2A
After a slow start to his NHL career, Jack Hughes keeps rising up. There’s been progress each season — play below the surface in Year 2, production in Year 3 while healthy, and now star-caliber play in Year 4. Not only is he elite in transition and at setting his teammates up, but he’s become more assertive. with his shot creation. With a boost in shot and scoring chance generation, his scoring rate’s bumped up to a high of 3.75 points per 60, which is top 15 in the league. That’s helped fuel the league’s biggest jump in GSVA from the season’s start through now — 2.0 wins up to 4.3.
Falling
Aaron Ekblad (Corey)
Preseason: Tier 2C
Midseason: Tier 4A
Florida has seen its fair share of struggles this season. It’s no surprise that one of their best players in Ekblad has not performed at the level we’ve seen in the past. He’s a very intelligent puck-mover, but I would never describe him as a dynamic offensive player, and thus as it’s been this season, his offense has been inconsistent over his career. This player should have more to give at both ends of the rink, guys with his size, mobility and hockey IQ should play like stars, but it remains to be seen whether he can be that player on a regular basis. His defensive impact has plummeted this season without MacKenzie Weegar next to him.
Jonathan Huberdeau (Dom)
Preseason: Tier 3A
Midseason: Tier 4A
Stylistically it felt like Jonathan Huberdeau would be a nearly seamless fit to fill Johnny Gaudreau’s shoes in Calgary. We held Gaudreau to a higher esteem at the time, but the Flames were still getting a high-end playmaking left winger who was lethal off the rush and made players around him much better with his passing. A more flawed version, but still an elite player. Tier 3A probably felt like a slight at the time to some, but our caution after Huberdeau’s productive 2021-22 season was not only warranted, it wasn’t cautious enough.
We had questions about Huberdeau’s defensive game and while those have been answered well, it’s come at the cost of his sublime offense. Huberdeau’s best asset has taken a major step back this season where he’s pacing at just 62 points. He’s better than that and there’s still plenty of belief in his skill set which is why he still lands at the top of Tier 4, but having him anywhere in Tier 3 is impossible to justify at the midseason mark.
Johnny Gaudreau (Sean)
Preseason: Tier 2B
Midseason: Tier 3B
What we’ve got here is another tough, self-inflicted break for Gaudreau. Expecting a follow-up of his remarkable 2021-22 season, regardless of where he played, would’ve been unfair, and he’s still a point-per-game player — but he’s also declined across the board at even strength, going from 1.3 goals/60 to 0.85; 1.85 primary assists to 0.95; and 3.59 points to 2.46. He’s not making up for it on the power play either. Columbus’ unit is one of the worst in the league. That’s life when you move from Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm to Boone Jenner and Gustav Nyquist.
Aleksander Barkov (Shayna)
Preseason: Tier 1C
Midseason: Tier 2B
Like Ekblad, Barkov’s game has trended in the wrong direction this season. When accounting for minutes played, the center’s production has dipped by about a full point per 60 minutes from last year. And his five-on-five impacts have dropped, too. Florida’s not tilting the ice to the same degree with their best two-way pivot deployed; Weaknesses on both ends are contributing to that. While there have been changes to his surroundings and that may be playing a major influence here, he’s not as strong relative to his teammates, either — and a player ranked in 1C should be able to remain a difference-maker despite their environment.
On the list
Tage Thompson (Sean)
Midseason: Tier 2C
For Thompson, we needed to see a follow-up to last season’s breakout. What we got was must-see TV. There may not be a more singular player in the league; if you’ve got another 6-foot-6 center with a diversified toolkit on par with his, please share with the class. He’s not just one of the best stories in the league anymore. He’s one of the best players, period; a dynamic power-finesse combo with the ninth-most goals in the league since the start of the 2021-22 season and one of the biggest reasons to believe in the Sabers moving forward. We’ve seen players go from off the list to just under the franchise tier — Kirill Kaprizov and Jack Hughes both debuted at Tier 3A. Thompson, though, is the first midseason addition to Tier 2. Aggressive as it may seem, it took about 10 seconds for us to agree.
Tage Thompson. (Mark Konezny / USA Today)
Hampus Lindholm (Shayna)
Midseason: Tier 3A
A change in scenery has worked wonders for Lindholm’s game. At a certain point in the Ducks’ decline, it started to drag down the defender’s game. But it was tricky to isolate how much his surroundings were to blame, and what part of his dip was due to individual decline. Well, a move to Boston shows just how influential team systems and quality of teammates can be. The new locale has revived his career, and not to a minor degree. It started last spring, and really has shown this season — even while Lindholm was asked to take on a bigger role with Charlie McAvoy sidelined. The 28-year-old legitimately looks like a Norris contender this season thanks to his shutdown defense and offensive influence.
Josh Morrissey (Dom)
Midseason: Tier 3B
At the start of the 2021-22 season, Morrissey’s career felt like it was at a crossroads. He looked lost without his usual partner Jacob Trouba and was struggling to live up to his billing as a No. 1 defender. He vowed to make changes to his game and we saw the start of that last year with Morrissey regaining his form as a true top-pair option. This year he’s upped the ante with a Norris-caliber season, unlocking some serious offensive potential that places him among the game’s truly elite defenders. Before the 2021-22 season, Morrissey was projected to be worth zero wins. He’s at 2.4 wins now and is a major reason the Jets are back at the top of the West.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (Corey)
Midseason: Tier 3C
Dubois is a player whom evaluators rave about as a big, powerful center with excellent offensive touch. He’s having a career year scoring-wise, which is exciting to see, as whether or not he would be an elite scorer was always a minor debate in his game in scouting circles. I think what excites you is the offense he’s showing, plus the excellent power game he has down the middle makes for a great overall player, even if the scoring takes a minor step backwards in the coming years.
IN: Matty Beniers, Brent Burns, Jakob Chychrun, Bo Horvat, Zach Hyman, Martin Necas, Tim Stützle, Mats Zuccarello.
Off the list
Seth Jones (Dom)
Preseason: 4A
Jones’ place in the top 100 was always a battleground for the old and new school. We reserved some reverence for the legion of traditionalists who went to bat for Jones despite an off first year with the Blackhawks. It’s hard to continue doing that with the season he’s having this year. Jones might still be a top 100 player on talent, but he’s sinking hard on one of the worst teams of all time where his results are so far off top-100 level that it becomes difficult to justify his place. Reputation can only get a player so far and maybe he’ll be back next season. Right now there are many other defenders out there simply making a bigger impact.
JT Miller (Sean)
Preseason: 4B
Extending Miller for seven years at an $8 million AAV through his age-37 season, as the Canucks did in the summer, was never likely to end well; his 99-point 2021-22 was the best showing of his 10-year NHL career by a mile, and it was fueled in part by his linemates. The thought, though, was that the Canucks would regret it in a couple years — not a couple months. Miller’s assist numbers have plummeted along with his defensive play, and he’s become the on-ice face of one of the most dysfunctional teams in recent history. Whoops.
Ryan O’Reilly (Shayna)
Preseason: 4B
Before being sidelined with injury, O’Reilly’s scoring rate dropped to the third-worst pace of his career at 1.41 points per 60. The team’s had some poor results while he’s on the ice, and while it’s not solely on him when goaltending falters or his teammates can’t finish his chances, he’s not putting up the Selke-caliber play that’s expected of him, either. Can he get back to that in St. Louis when he returns from injury? Does he have it in his game to play at that level even if he doesn’t have support around him? That’s the big question, and why he slides out of the top 100 at this time.
Trevor Zegras (Corey)
Preseason: 4B
Zegras’ pure skill and offensive IQ would rank among the very best in the NHL right now. That said, he still has room for growth in his game. The Ducks have struggled mightily this season and Zegras, as one of their go-to players, hasn’t taken a big step forward in his game. There’s no doubting the elite and unique plays he can make with the puck on his stick, but his game can lack pace, his effort at times is average and he’s not strong without the puck. Eventually, he should be an impact guy, but he’s not there yet.
OUT: Sean Couturier, Noah Hanifin, Jordan Kyrou, Andrew Mangiapane, Colton Parayko, Ryan Pulock, Sam Reinhart, Teuvo Teravainen
(Top photo of Jason Robertson: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
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