We’re halfway into the 2022-23 NHL season, and lately, the New York Rangers have looked a lot like the 2021-22 iteration of the team.
The Blueshirts are winning games at an impressive clip, but there are some concerns about how they are achieving those results. New York’s 5-on-5 numbers look pedestrian, but the team continues to rack up points. The Rangers are 11-3-3 since the beginning of December.
The Rangers host another team in good form, the Minnesota Wild, on Tuesday night.
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Rangers vs. Wild prediction (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+)
As we saw last season, the Rangers are built to be able to win games in which they don’t necessarily control the tempo. The Blueshirts were pedestrian at best at 5-on-5 last season, but they were in the hunt to win the division and got within two wins of making it to the Stanley Cup Final.
At the same time, it’s fair to be skeptical about how far this team can go without improving its play at 5-on-5. The Rangers may be 11-3-3 with a +17 goal differential since the beginning of December, but they rank 23rd in expected goals rate and high-danger scoring chance percentage in that span. Additionally, only Chicago is creating fewer xG per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than the Rangers, who rank 28th in high-danger chances generated since Dec. 1.
But the Blueshirts keep chugging along thanks to a power play that is clipping at 28.5% over the last 17 games, goaltenders who have posted a .912 save percentage in that span and a team-wide 11.9% shooting percentage.
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The Wild have also enjoyed a surge since the beginning of December, stringing together a 12-5-1 stretch with a +14 goal differential. But unlike the Rangers, Minnesota is getting the job done with its play at 5-on-5. The Wild have skated to a 52.4% expected goals rate and 54.2% high-danger scoring chance rate since the beginning of December and they’re doing it in typical Wild fashion. The Wild lead the NHL in high-danger chances allowed in that span and boast the third-best xGA/60, as well.
Minnesota is dealing with a couple of lineup issues for Tuesday night. Mats Zuccarello is day-to-day, while Marc-Andre Fleury is away from the team for personal reasons. Even with Zuccarello and Fleury’s status in doubt, the Wild look like a good bet as an underdog on Tuesday night against a team that will likely be overvalued based on its recent results.
Minnesota Wild +115 (BetMGM)
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