The Buffalo Sabers are becoming the feel-good story of the NHL this season. Buffalo is just four points out of a playoff spot entering play on Monday and has games in hand on every team chasing it. At the halfway point of the campaign, the Sabers have a legitimate chance to make the postseason for the first time since 2011.
After dropping eight games in a row in the middle of November, Buffalo is on a 13-4-2 run with a +26 goal difference in that span. And perhaps most surprisingly, it’s the Sabers that pace the NHL in goals per game — and it’s not all that close. Buffalo is averaging 4.0 scores per contest, 0.23 goals per game better than the second-best team (Boston).
The Sabers are a great story and are on a roll, but seasoned bettors will know that there’s no better time to sell on a team than when the hockey world begins to get carried away.
Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS
New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.
First bet up to $1,250 on Caesars
New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000
21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply
Flyers vs. Sabers prediction (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+)
The Sabers have won eight of their last 10 games, but three of those wins came in overtime and their last three victories required some dramatic comebacks. That’s not a huge deal in a small sample, but it does go to show that a few bounces here or there and the story here would be very different.
Additionally, Buffalo’s statistical profile isn’t all that encouraging of late. The Sabers are averaging 2.85 goals for and 2.11 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games, but their expected goals data paints a different picture. Buffalo is generating 2.33 xGF per 60 minutes and conceding 2.84 xGA/60 in that same span. Buffalo also ranks 29th in the NHL in high-danger scoring chance rate over their last 10 games.
Ohio sports betting is live! Check it out – the best Ohio betting sites & apps.
What’s keeping the Sabers rolling despite those poor 5-on-5 metrics is a 13.2 shooting percentage and a .926 save percentage.
Buffalo does have some serious offensive talent, so maybe the team will continue to finish its chances at a robust clip, but it’s hard to imagine the goaltending will be this good for the second half. Craig Anderson has been terrific in 14 games, but he’s the oldest player in the league, so it’s fair to expect some regression.
Betting on the NHL?
All of this makes the Sabers a tough team to come back as a big favorite. Buffalo is a much better team than Philadelphia and deserves to be a short price, but if you look under the hood, there’s not much difference in the numbers these two teams are posting at 5-on-5 right now. Buffalo has the rate of a slightly better-expected goal over its last 10, but the Flyers have the better high-danger scoring chance rate.
In other words, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Buffalo is just going to tilt the ice and play the Flyers out of the building on Monday night.
Flyers vs. Sabers pick
Flyers ML (+198, FanDuel)
.