The NHL has scheduled 13 games on Thursday, and with just one game scheduled on Friday, bettors will feel a certain obligation to exhaust themselves looking for the best NHL bets today. I know I do. There’s a lot to cover (injuries, starting goaltenders etc.) so let’s get into NHL predictions and bets for today.
Today’s NHL schedule:
|
REST |
AWAY |
HOME |
REST |
|
4/6 |
PHI |
BOS |
3 |
|
3 |
NYR |
SEA |
3 |
|
1 |
ANA |
WPG |
3 |
|
2 |
COL |
CAR |
2 |
|
3 |
ARI |
VGK |
1 |
|
2 |
CGY |
TBL |
1 |
|
2 |
NYI |
NSH |
1 |
|
1 |
DAL |
FLA |
1 |
|
1 |
MTL |
CBJ |
1 |
|
1 |
NJD |
TOR |
1 |
|
1 |
PIT |
MIN |
1 |
|
1 |
DET |
SJS |
1 |
|
1 |
WSH |
STL |
0 |
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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, November 17th
With all the marquee matchups on Thursday, it’s a bit sickening that I had to immediately direct my attention towards a game that has little to no meaning.
Monday’s Bets: Winnipeg Jets -210, Winnipeg Jets -1.5, +120 and Montreal Canadiens -115
Wins: 27 Losses: 28 Units Won: -0.44 units ROI: -0.9 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Anaheim Ducks (+190) at Winnipeg Jets (-210)
Bets: Winnipeg Jets (-210) to win one unit and Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (+120) to win 1.2 units
Winnipeg legends Teemu Selanne and Teppo Numminen will be inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame prior to the Jets’ game against the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday. It should fire up both teams, but the Jets have played excellent on home ice. Starter Connor Hellebuyck has played every home game so far and given the special occasion, and the fact he hasn’t played since November 12th, it’s likely that head coach Rick Bowness will start him on Thursday. Anaheim has been dominated on the road this season, winning just two games against the San Jose Sharks. In games outside of California, the Ducks have been outscored 36-14. Anaheim is the worst team in the league by expected goals, and arguably the worst team on defense, as no team allows more shots. The Jets have been off for three days, and my NHL betting model estimates that they will win the game approximately 73 percent of the time. That converts to fair odds of around -270, and that means I can justify betting the home team at -210 to win one unit. I’m also going to bet one unit on the Jets to cover the puck line (1.5 goals) at +120.
Starting goaltenders: Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson are expected to start in goal for their respective clubs.
Notes: Winnipeg Jets’ forward Nikolaj Ehlers has yet to return from injury, but the team has gone 9-4-1 without him.
Montreal Canadiens (-115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-105)
Bet: Montreal Canadiens (-115) to win one unit
Even at full strength, Columbus is one of the worst teams in the league, and now injuries to key players have started to pile up. Patrik Laine is out for at least a month with an ankle injury. Star defenseman Zach Werenski is expected to miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Adam Boqvist, Jakub Voracek, Nick Blankenburg and Justin Danforth are also on injured reserve. Defenseman Jake Bean and starting goaltender Elvis Merzlikins are also injured after leaving Tuesday’s game. Montreal shouldn’t be favored on the road very often, but this is one of those rare occasions. Under normal circumstances, this game would be a coin flip, as the current odds suggest, but my NHL betting model estimates that the Canadiens will win the game roughly 56 percent of the time and, therefore, I can justify betting the road team at – 115, or better, to win one unit.
Shop around: I was able to bet the Canadiens at -109, and I see shops that are offering -110 and -111.
Starting goaltenders: Montreal has confirmed that Samuel Montembeault will start in goal. Merzlikins could not put any weight on his left leg following a goal against in the second period on Tuesday, and Joonas Korpisalo is the expected starter.
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