Skip to content

NHL best bets today (Expect goals in battle of backup goalies)

Just because there are NFL Playoffs today, doesn’t mean I’m going to stop betting on the NHL, especially with how hot I’ve been betting on this sport over the past few weeks.

We have five games to wager on today, including an afternoon Metropolitan Division matchup between the New Jersey Devils and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

I have three best bets for tonight. Let’s dive into them.

NHL best bets record-to-date

NHL best bets today (Sunday, January 22)

  • Penguins/Devils OVER 6.5 (-106)
  • Sharks +290 vs. Bruins
  • Jets/Flyers OVER 6.5 (+100)

Penguins/Devils OVER 6.5 (-106)

Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils | Odds by BetMGM

BetMGM

Pittsburgh Penguins
New Jersey Devils

Something has happened to the New Jersey Devils since the calendar flipped to 2023. After starting the season as one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, they have recently become all offense and no defense.

Over their last 10 games, they rank fourth in expected goals for per game (3.6), but 29th in expected goals against (3.54).

Let’s also throw in the fact that the Penguins are fifth in expected goals over the same stretch and New Jersey ranks third in shooting percentage, and this game sounds like a recipe for an OVER.

Sharks +290 vs. Bruins

San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins | Odds by BetMGM

BetMGM

San Jose Sharks
Boston Bruins

I’m taking a shot at a massive underdog today, but hear me out. I’m aware I’ve lost recent bets trying to fade the Bruins, but they’re a curious case.

Boston has some huge discrepancies between their expected goals and actual goals. Over the Bruins last 10 games, they’re scoring 0.9 more goals per game than their “expected” metric, and their actual goals against is 0.9 less than their expected goals against.

Is extremely hot shooting and goaltending sustainable night in and night out? I don’t think so.

Over the same stretch of games, the Sharks outrank the Bruins in CORSI% and expected goals percentage.

Should the Bruins be favored? Sure, but I think this game is mispriced. +290 odds gives the Sharks an implied chance of winning of around 25%. I think their odds of winning are closer to 30%, which would be +233 odds. So, inherently, I think there’s some value at the +290 price point.

Let’s take a shot and hope we get lucky.

Jets/Flyers OVER 6.5 (+100)

Winnipeg Jets @ Philadelphia Flyers | Odds by BetMGM

BetMGM

Winnipeg Jets
Philadelphia Flyers

Connor Hellebuyck has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season, sporting a .924 save percentage, and he has played a big role in the Jets being one point back from first place in the Central Division.

But, Hellebuyck played last night against the Ottawa Senators, so backup goaltender David Rittich is expected to start tonight. His save percentage is significantly lower, coming in at .908.

The same is the case for the Flyers, who went with Carter Hart in Saturday’s game against the Red Wings. Now, backup goaltender Felix Sandstrom will likely play today, who has a poor save percentage of .888 on the year.

The two teams, as a whole, are scoring an average combined 3.8 goals per game over their last 10 contests, so with tonight being a battle of backup goaltenders, I think we’re going to see enough goals to cash the OVER for us.

Over 6.5

FanDuel

-106

live

over/under

Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils

01/22 1:00 PM

1-0-0 (100%) on Devils O/U picks this season

1-1-0 (50%) on Penguins O/U picks this season

San Jose Sharks

SJ

DraftKings

+290

live

moneyline

San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins

01/22 6:00 PM

2-2-0 (50%) on SJ moneyline picks this season

Over 6.5

BetMGM

+100

live

over/under

Winnipeg Jets @ Philadelphia Flyers

01/22 6:00 PM

3-2-0 (60%) on Flyers O/U picks this season

2-0-1 (100%) on Jets O/U picks this season

Published on Jan 22, 2023 10:15 AM

Betslip #1674404110140-82bd-561

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.