NFL wild-card playoffs picks against the spread: Vic Tafur’s predictions

It’s time for the playoffs, time to refocus and get serious after not taking the regular season very seriously.

Are we talking about me or Dak Prescott?

I finished a dreary season with a winning week, while Prescott and the Cowboys got blown out by rookie Sam Howell and the Commanders.

There were some correct predictions, such as drafting Jalen Hurts in fantasy, the Seahawks being a sleeper and the Broncos getting way too much hype. And the Cowboys did have that three-game stretch when they outscored the Vikings, Giants and Colts by a combined score of 122-42. That was six weeks ago and the Cowboys have been in cruise control ever since.

Dallas played down to the level of its opponents, but now it’s time for a talented roster to put its best foot forward.

Another thing we got right this season was to fade Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, and they were a league-worst 4-12-1 against the spread.

Thanks to the respect that Brady gets, this Cowboys-Bucs matchup is the marquee one this weekend and gets the “Monday Night Football” slot.

The other matchups feature six quarterbacks who are making their playoff debuts: Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones and Skylar Thompson. Now, we all know that Purdy is the best quarterback in the NFL, but how will the others fare?

Thompson, nothing personal, will go down as the worst QB to ever start a playoff game, so the Bills beating the Dolphins is one of our best bets. The point spread is rising by the minute but can’t go too high. We also like Prescott and the Cowboys to handle the Buccaneers and the Jaguars to run over the Chargers.

Our Super Bowl pick is the Chiefs over the 49ers. Any team that loses Tyreek Hill yet its offense improves, and one that actually practiced a “Ring Around the Rosie” play to troll their division rival is working on a different level.

Last week: We finished strong with a 3-1 record in best bets and 10-6 against the spread overall. So it was a bright, red cherry on top of a poop sundae. 127-139-5 ATS and 26-27-3 on best bets on the season.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Purdy is Kurt Warner. Actually, not quite, as Purdy was the last pick in the draft while Warner went undrafted. But otherwise, it’s been just as stunning as a rise. The 49ers averaged 22.6 points per game in their first 11 games, then 33.5 in the six games since Purdy stepped in. He already handled the Seahawks once this season, and that was in Seattle. (Also: The 49ers are not taking the Seahawks lightly after beating them twice this season.)

Geno Smith, on the other hand, has been struggling of late. He has eight touchdowns and five interceptions in the last five games, after throwing 22 TDs versus six picks in his first 12. By EPA/DB, Smith’s second- and third-worst games of the regular season came against the 49ers.

And Kenneth Walker III is going to have a hard time running against that defense as well. The 49ers defense finished the regular season with the lowest explosive run allowed rate in the NFL (4.1 percent).

Don’t be afraid of the big point spread. The Seahawks barely beat the Rams last week — and Baker Mayfield was horrible in that game. The Seahawks led the league in percentage of snaps (22.9 percent) by rookies on offense, and should be commended for getting this far. Pete Carroll is vindicated. But Nick Bosa and company will turn out the lights Saturday. Since 2000, there have been just eight other wild-card round games with teams favored by 10 or more points — which the Bills are and the 49ers likely will be by game time. The favored team is 7-1 ATS with an 8-0 actual record.

The pick: 49ers -9.5

This one seems like an easy one to me, and a big part of that is I have no faith in Chargers coach Brandon Staley.

Last week, he played his starters way too long in a game that meant nothing and receiver Mike Williams — who has been battling injuries all season — injured his back. Williams didn’t practice this week, but Staley said he thinks he will play (he’s listed as questionable). With Williams this season, Herbert has a 69.2 percent completion rate, 7.11 YPA, and 46.4 percent passing success rate. Without Williams, those numbers drop to a 66.7 percent completion rate, 6.24 YPA and a 45 percent passing success rate.

The Jaguars beat a banged-up Chargers team 38-10 in Week 3, and the biggest takeaway from that game was that they shouldn’t blitz Lawrence as much. He was 13-of-16 for 111 yards and a TD when blitzed. The Jaguars also ran 36 times for 151 yards and should turn Travis Etienne Jr. loose here.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ young defense is getting better and better, and Josh Allen and Arden Key are one of three pairs of teammates to be in the top 20 out of 178 qualified players in pressure rate (Allen 15th, Key 20th).

Yeah, give me the home team against the underachieving team with a bad run defense — 5.4 yards per carry allowed, worst in the NFL — traveling across the country.

The pick: Jaguars +2.5

The Dolphins split their two games with the Bills this season and now face them again on Sunday with a shot-put thrower in Thompson playing quarterback due to injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater.

The Dolphins have no shot. Raheem Mostert is running very well and could give the Bills headaches if they had to worry at all about the passing game. But Thompson looks uncomfortable back there, and to make it worse, Hill may be banged up, as he has not been as explosive over the last month.

The Bills, who have gotten quite a lift from their trade-deadline acquisitions, should be able to build and hold on to a lead thanks to their running game coming on. Since Week 11, James Cook ranks first among running backs with at least 50 carries in yards before contact per carry (3.64). Devin Singletary ranks third (29.4 percent) and Cook fourth (28.6 percent) in the share of their runs that went for first downs.

The Bills can pick any score they want in this game.

The pick: Bills -13

Everyone is going to be on the Giants, given what a cool story they have been and how many bad performances the Vikings have had despite having a 13-4 record. And I would like to be on the Giants too, as I think Brian Daboll is easily the Coach of the Year for the job he has done this season. Last week was a virtuoso performance, as he rested most of his key players and took an Eagles team that was playing for the No. 1 seed down to the wire.

The Vikings, though, do find ways to win and they were in control for most of their 27-24 win over the Giants last month before allowing a touchdown late. Kirk Cousins ​​has seen the Giants’ tricky and frequent blitzes, and he handled them well that day — he was 15-of-23 for 171 yards and two TDs. Fifty percent of his throws came in 2.5 seconds or less, tied for the second highest percentage of quick throws in any game this season for Cousins. And he had an easy time finding Justin Jefferson.

Tight end TJ Hockenson had his best game as a Viking vs. the Giants — 13 catches for 109 yards on 16 targets — and the Giants rank 31st in pass defense DVOA vs. tight ends. Plus, Irv Smith Jr. returned last week for the Vikings.

Minnesota’s defense is not good (and the Giants offense put up some big numbers in the first meeting), but the Vikings should score enough points at home to win and cover the spread.

The pick: Vikings -3

You don’t often see a pick hinge on the status of a right guard, but Alex Cappa being out this week for the Bengals has me taking the points with the Ravens. Cappa has allowed the second-fewest pressures (19) among the Bengals’ starting offensive linemen this season, trailing only Ted Karras (16). Right tackle La’el Collins tore his ACL last month and Joe Burrow could be in for a long day.

The Ravens’ feisty defense, led by Roquan Smith and his new contract, should take advantage. But it’s playing the Bengals for the third time this season and for the second straight week. In that first meeting, the Bengals ran 21 times for 101 yards, with 2.43 yards before contact per carry, and they ran into loaded boxes 14.3 percent of the time. Last week, the Bengals ran 20 times for 55 yards, with 0.15 yards before contact per carry, and they ran into loaded boxes 45 percent of the time.

Burrow could make me look foolish, but that would not be new for me this season. I ain’t scared.

Tyler Huntley will likely get the nod at quarterback for the Ravens, as Lamar Jackson remains out. If he can avoid turnovers, the Ravens will stay close and might even pull off the upset. It seems like we need a reminder every now and then of what a good coach John Harbaugh is.

The pick: Ravens +9.5

Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys, his most wins against any single opponent without a loss. But that’s not this Brady, who set a league record for passing attempts while his 6.4 yards per attempt is his worst average in 20 years. Amazing how long he has been playing.

Bucs fell to 8-9 with Sunday’s loss.

It’s Tom Brady’s 1st losing season as the primary starting QB in the NFL, college OR high school.

– 1993-94 Serra High School (CA)
– 1998-99 Michigan
– 2001-19 Patriots
– 2020-21 Buccaneers

25 years, 25 non-losing seasons before Sunday.

— Jason Starrett (@starrettjason) January 8, 2023

The Buccaneers can’t run the ball, which will allow the talented Cowboys defense to swarm the old man. Brady ranks 31st of 33 qualified QBs in EPA/DB when pressured this season. Even with their sleep-walking down the stretch, the Cowboys still finished the season leading the NFL in pressure rate (43.2 percent).

Dallas may be coming off its worst game, but should get back to what it was doing best earlier in the season and let running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott eat. The Buccaneers gave up 4.5 yards a carry.

The pick: Cowboys -2.5

— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.

(Graphic: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo of Dak Prescott: Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)