The NFL playoffs are finally here, and despite fewer games than a normal week during the regular season, there is still plenty of value during the postseason. This season has been about as breakeven as it can get, but we did make a profit on last year’s playoffs so let’s hope history repeats itself.
Last week’s record: 1-1, -0.10 units
Season record: 44-38-3, +0.08
Three plays this week and a fourth that is almost in a range that I’ll share with everyone. I don’t love the card, and I don’t hate it, so no reading from my “heart,” but the numbers are what they are, and we will stick to the model and fire away.
One thing to note before we get into the action. Just because the playoffs are here doesn’t mean you have to have action in every game. Always remember to bet responsibly and shop for the best lines.
All odds are from BetMGM and locked when the article is published.
Best Bets
Admittedly, I don’t love this play. The Vikings are a mess on defense, and if it wasn’t for Justin Jefferson, I’m not sure there is much about this team that gives you a ton of confidence. With that being said, the Giants are basically in the same boat. The Giants’ offense is the bright spot as they’ve been an above-average unit pretty much all season by EPA/Play and success rate, but the defense is in the bottom three in EPA/Play and dead last in rushing EPA/Play . If the Vikings can run the ball with a ton of success, keeping Jefferson in check is going to be too tall of a task for the Giants.
Worst line to bet: Vikings -3 -110
Whether Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown is under center, the Ravens’ offense has not been right without Lamar Jackson. My model has a slightly smaller edge if Huntley is the quarterback, so I’m taking only a half-unit bet. Their offense depends on his ability to create with his legs; without it, it’s hard for them to score. Yes, the Ravens defense has been much better since acquiring Roquan Smith, but when facing an offense with Joe Burrow under center is going to be tougher than any offense they’ve seen recently.
Worst line to bet: Bengals -8 -110
My numbers lean towards the over here, and the narrative that I believe is that Tom Brady will not exit the playoffs by handing the ball off on every early down. The Bucs are 14th in EPA/Dropback this season and dead last in EPA/Rush. And while the Bucs have not been great on offense, the Cowboys have been great on offense despite their struggles against Washington last week. I think this might be a little buy low spot on these offenses as my model makes this 46.5/47.
Worst line to bet: Over 46 -110
Lines to watch
The Seahawks did not fare well on offense in either of their matchups with the vaunted 49er’ defense this season, but I think this number has gotten a little out of hand. Brock Purdy has been very good but laying this many points is a bit much, and my model has the 49ers as an elite team in the NFL this season. If this number gets to 10 at normal juice, I think that’s worth taking a stab at.
Worst line to bet: Seahawks +10 -110
(Photo of Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd: Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
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