It’s a Christmas weekend slate in the NFL, and it will close with Nick Foles making his first start of the season. It seems fitting for this holiday, especially since these picks are heavy on underdogs with Foles on the schedule.
The irony is that the one underdog I didn’t pick was Foles, who famously won the Super Bowl over Tom Brady as an underdog in February 2018. Will he prove me wrong? Let’s get to the picks.
Last week’s record: 2-3-1 overall; 2-1-1 versus the spread; 0-1 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 0-1 on player props.
Season record: 45-42-3 overall; 34-23-2 versus the spread; 3-12 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 8-7 on player props.
All odds are from BetMGM and locked when the article is published.
Premier Saturday afternoon game: Eagles +4.5 at Cowboys
The Eagles have been favored in every game this season, but Jalen Hurts has started in every game this season. With Gardner Minshew at quarterback, there’s more unknown about the Eagles’ offense. However, they still have perhaps the NFL’s best roster, with every starter on their offensive and defensive lines being a Pro Bowler or Pro Bowl alternate. Minshew went 20-of-25 and threw for two touchdowns when starting with the Eagles’ starters last year, and now he has AJ Brown added to the mix. The Eagles are good enough to win this game, although the Cowboys should have the edge at home on a short-ish week with an advantage at quarterback, their productive running game and a standout pass rush. It’s not enough to take them as 4.5-point favorites.
The Dolphins are finally back home to try to break a three-game losing streak. To do so, they’ll need to run the ball — the Packers rank No. 32nd in the NFL in run defense DVOA. Miami is inconsistent on the ground. The 67-yard run last week was encouraging, but it’s No. 3 in offensive DVOA because of his passing game. Green Bay has back-to-back wins — albeit against bad teams — and there’s reason to get behind its running game. The Packers are averaging 142 rushing yards per game over the past seven weeks, and the receivers are developing around Aaron Rodgers. They have fooled me before this season, but I think the Packers keep this within a field goal.
Underdog on the moneyline: Raiders +105 at Steelers
This was originally +115 when I made the picks, so there’s the money going in the direction of Las Vegas. The complicating factor is the weather, especially because Derek Carr is 0-6 when the temperature is below 37 degrees. I still like the Raiders most of the underdogs this week, with the possible exception of Philadelphia. The Raiders have won four of their past five games and have scored into the 20s 11 times this season. They can move the ball, which is a good place to start for an upset. Perhaps the return of Kenny Pickett and playing against the Raiders’ defense will ignite the Steelers’ offense, but there aren’t many appealing options for an upset pick this week. It might not take many points to win this one (the total is at 38), and I have more confidence in the Raiders scoring.
Full disclosure: I’m somewhere over Kentucky on my flight to Dallas for the Eagles-Cowboys game, and I’ve changed this pick about three times in the past 24 hours. I’ll take Tom Brady over Trace McSorley any day, and my concern was trusting the Bucs as 7.5-point favorites when they haven’t won by that margin since Week 2. Tampa Bay has lost three of four games; his 23 points last week were the most since Week 4. But have you seen the Cardinals lately? It might seem logical to take the points for the home underdogs. I just don’t know how many the Cardinals will score to keep this close.
Monday prime time: Chargers -4.5 at Colts
It’s always fun to watch Nick Foles, but when a team is on its third starting quarterback of the season for performance reasons, the problem probably isn’t the quarterback. Don’t expect the change from Matt Ryan to Foles to fix Indianapolis’ woes. The Chargers have a lot to play for and won last week against Tennessee despite two Justin Herbert interceptions. They’re undefeated this season as road favorites (and 3-1 against the spread), so they can travel well. I’d admittedly feel more comfortable if this spread was a point lower.
Player prop: Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-200)
This might seem like a low bar to clear until you see Jones has cleared it only three times this season, and he hasn’t done it since Week 10. The Vikings rank No. 27 in pass defense DVOA, so Jones might need to air it out. But the Giants’ strength is on the ground. Only 10 of the Giants’ 25 red zone touchdowns have come through the air.
(Photo of Nick Foles: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
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