Fifteen games down, one to go in Week 1…
• Obviously, a lot of people in the Steelers’ organization will be on eggshells over the next 24 hours as they await a final course of action to address the pec injury TJ Watt suffered at the end of Pittsburgh’s win in Cincinnati on Sunday. And part of the issue here is that, for the first time in what seems like 30 years, the pipeline at his position on the roster isn’t flowing the way the Steelers normally expect it to.
More will be expected of Alex Highsmith, who’s been developed into a nice complementary bookend for Watt in his third year as a pro. But after that? You’ve got Malik Reed who, like Highsmith, was a nice complementary piece over his first three years as a pro, before the Broncos traded him to Pittsburgh at the end of camp with a seventh-round pick for a sixth-round pick. And after that, things get really thin.
So if Watt can avoid surgery and return in, say, six to eight weeks, this might all be manageable. If he’s out for the year, we’re talking about something else entirely, especially with the Steelers in the rugged AFC.
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• If Lamar Jackson’s contract situation isn’t revisited before the offseason, 2023 is shaping up as another big one for quarterback contracts. Decisions to extend Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert should be slam dunks for the Bengals and Chargers. But as Jackson just showed us, a player prioritizing guarantees and structure over raw totals can throw a wrench into things, and the teams Burrow and Herbert play for aren’t known for free spending, even when it comes to paying their own (though the Chargers have come around a bit of late).
After those three, you’ll have the Dolphins reaching the three-year contractual crossroads with Tua Tagovailoa—with decisions on whether to pick up his fifth-year option and/or extend him on tap. And then, you have a crop of former first-round picks, in Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, set to hit the market.
Then, there’s Tom Brady, who, if he chooses to play at age 46, would have the right to sign with whoever he wants in March.
• Receiver used to be among the NFL’s toughest positions to adjust to, coming from the college level. In fact, I can remember when I started covering the league how coaches said that you often couldn’t really tell what you had at the position until a guy’s third year. All of that’s been blown up by the NFL incorporating more college-centric schemes, receivers catching a million balls since they were preteens (thanks, 7-on-7) and, of course, the sorts of starts the NFL careers of guys like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase got off to.
But we saw over the weekend that there could be bumps along the way, with the Packers rookies struggling and Colts rookie Alec Pierce recording a key drop. The difference now, it seems, is that teams are more willing to ride these out, and I’d expect Green Bay and Indianapolis to do just that with these guys.
For what it’s worth, the most productive rookie receiver in Week 1 was the highest-drafted one. The Falcons’ Drake London, the eighth pick, had 74 yards on seven catches.
• Speaking of rookies, I went back and looked at my conversation with Carson Wentz Sunday night, and there was a line that stuck out to me, when we talked about the consecutive picks he threw in the fourth quarter.
“It’s not easy, any time you have back-to-back plays like that,” Wentz said. “First one, obviously, bad throw, bad decision. That was a mistake. Second one, guy made an unbelievable play. It’s kinda just like, Well, that sucks.”
The guy on the other end of that play? No. 1 pick Travon Walker, who was questioned predraft (I’ll raise my hand on that one), and who keeps showing up in highlights, going back to the preseason. I had a really smart coach compare the power in his game, predraft, to Khalil Mack’s—and show me a play from the Orange Bowl to back it up. On that one, Walker, flatfooted, jacked up a pulling guard from Michigan, created a standstill, then reached around him like Scorpion from Mortal Kombat to pull the ballcarrier down.
And on the play Wentz is referencing? Walker picked the ball off at point-blank range, simply reacting on instinct to what was happening around him. Like Mack would. So I think that’ll be your comp for Walker. At this point, I’d look at him as a raw version of Mack.
• Shoutout to Tyreek Hill for delivering the line of the day yesterday, on Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-7 at the end of the first half against the Patriots: “He’s going to need a wheelbarrow for his nuts to carry around, because he’s got a lot of cojones.” And the ballsy call should be worth more to McDaniel in the long run than just the seven points he put on the board.
It showed a belief in Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle, not to mention a revamped line, to get it done in a critical spot, that easily could’ve swung the other way before the half. And all the players, like Hill, will remember that he was willing to trust them.
• The Bears drilled their defense all week last week on playing the run/boot game, and play-action off it on first and second down (the offense they worked against in camp is a cousin of Kyle Shanahan’s, so to speak), and then making Trey Lance make difficult throws on third down. And really, it worked to make Lance’s day a tough one.
That said, I don’t think it was as bad as some made it out to be, like there was nothing for the 49ers’ second-year quarterback to build on. The offense was a respectable 8-for-17 on third down.
• While we’re there, Justin Fields’s numbers weren’t great (8-for-17, 121 yards, 2 TDs, INT), but his coaches were pretty happy with how he played on Sunday, and how he handled really messy conditions , fought through and made two plays that won the game for the Bears.
The touchdown throw to Dante Pettis showed Fields’ athleticism, poise and ability to improvise. The one to Equanimous St. Brown was in rhythm and on time. And both were examples of how Fields compartmentalized some shaky plays early, and the conditions, and made plays when it mattered most. Then, there was a third, more hidden, big play the staff loved, where Fields avoided a sack on a keeper play and ran for 12 yards. It came on a second-and-8 from the 49ers’ 45, and helped Chicago manage the end of the half.
Fields still needs to learn to play faster in the pocket, and see it better, but it’s pretty clear there’s a lot to work with there.
• Derek Barnett hasn’t been what the Eagles had hoped for as a first-round pick, but losing the fifth-year pro to a torn ACL is a big blow in how it turns a spot that had been pretty deep previously into one that’ ll now be interesting. Veterans Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham are both there, of course, but with Sweat’s injury history and Graham’s age, you’d think the team will have to be careful about increasing their usage to make up for Barnett’s absence.
Against the Lions, Sweat and fellow edge rusher Haason Reddick wound up playing more than 70% of the snaps, and Graham played 42%, numbers that were goosed a little by Barnett’s third-quarter departure from the game.
• The Buccaneers’ staff raved about Julio Jones over the summer, so the fact that the 12th-year pro had a nice debut (his 69 yards were his most since Week 2 of last year) comes as no surprise to his coworkers. Tampa Bay was actually surprised with how fast he looked in practices over the summer, as they tried to pace him and keep him fresh through camp.
That’s actually a big part of the equation with Jones—he can’t practice every day anymore. And that’s one reason why Tampa was perfect for him, because, with Tom Brady there, it’s a very vet-friendly place, with a focus on having older guys at their best when it counts.
• The loss of Kyle Fuller for Baltimore should not be ignored. The Ravens are still waiting on Marcus Peters to get back from the ACL tear he suffered in practice last summer. Second-year pro Brandon Stephens, a 2021 third-round pick, will be important until then.
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