Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen have consistently been atop the league in 2022, even despite some blips along the way. Jalen Hurts is the current favorite to win the NFL MVP. And Jimmy Garoppolo played about as well as the 49ers would have liked in relief of Trey Lance before suffering a foot injury.
But is Jared Goff a top-five quarterback? And what about Trevor Lawrence being a top-10 quarterback? And what about so many household names being so far down the list?
In this dive, I’m revisiting my midseason quarterback outlook to see which quarterbacks have maintained their pace or shifted up and down with their results. Here are the metrics I’m using for this examination:
- Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback (via TruMedia)
- Offensive total EPA per play (via TruMedia)
- Passer rating
The differences between the two EPA rates show how much of the offensive successes or struggles fall on the quarterback versus the overall offense. And the EPA per dropback helps account for a quarterback’s ability to pass and scramble, as opposed to solely using passer rating.
The players are listed by EPA per dropback, so these “rankings” aren’t subjective and can certainly change game by game.
(Note: Quarterbacks need to be “passer rating qualified” via the NFL’s official stats for this study. Also, these ratings are all entering Week 15 so the rankings won’t include the 49ers-Seahawks game from Thursday night.)
Overall
| player | EPA/DB | OffEPA/Play | PsrRt |
|---|---|---|---|
|
0.30 (1) |
0.27 (1) |
103.4 (4) |
|
|
0.21 (2) |
0.19 (2) |
108.2 (2) |
|
|
0.20 (3) |
0.12 (5) |
95.5 (10) |
|
|
0.15 (4) |
0.11 (6) |
97.9 (7) |
|
|
0.14 (5) |
0.10 (8) |
103.0 (5) |
|
|
0.13 (6) |
0.10 (7) |
102.4 (6) |
|
|
0.13 (7) |
0.17 (4) |
108.4 (1) |
|
|
0.12 (8) |
0.06 (13) |
95.4 (11) |
|
|
0.11 (9) |
0.07 (11) |
106.8 (3) |
|
|
0.10 (10) |
0.17 (3) |
92.2 (14) |
|
|
0.07 (11) |
0.09 (10) |
89.4 (18) |
|
|
0.07 (12) |
0.10 (9) |
88.9 (20) |
|
|
0.05 (13) |
-0.03 (21) |
96.2 (9) |
|
|
0.05 (14) |
0.01 (18) |
91.6 (15) |
|
|
0.05 (15) |
-0.09 (25) |
96.3 (8) |
|
|
0.05 (16) |
0.04 (14) |
85.4 (26) |
|
|
0.04 (17) |
0.01 (17) |
93.2 (12) |
|
|
0.02 (18) |
-0.01 (19) |
87.2 (23) |
|
|
0.02 (19) |
0.06 (12) |
88.2 (21) |
|
|
0.02 (20) |
0.02 (16) |
91.2 (16) |
|
|
0.02 (21) |
-0.07 (24) |
88.9 (19) |
|
|
-0.01 (22) |
0.03 (15) |
91.1 (17) |
|
|
-0.03 (23) |
-0.02 (20) |
92.4 (13) |
|
|
-0.06 (24) |
-0.13 (26) |
87.4 (22) |
|
|
-0.06 (25) |
-0.15 (29) |
84.0 (29) |
|
|
-0.06 (26) |
-0.14 (27) |
85.0 (27) |
|
|
-0.07 (27) |
-0.06 (22) |
74.9 (32) |
|
|
-0.08 (28) |
-0.06 (23) |
86.3 (24) |
|
|
-0.08 (29) |
-0.19 (33) |
85.7 (25) |
|
|
-0.11 (30) |
-0.14 (28) |
84.1 (28) |
|
|
-0.12 (31) |
-0.19 (32) |
78.2 (30) |
|
|
-0.14 (32) |
-0.17 (31) |
72.6 (33) |
|
|
-0.15 (33) |
-0.17 (30) |
76.8 (31) |
I’ll jump deeper into some of these quarterbacks shortly. The next set of graphics break down a quarterback’s EPA per dropback using four time periods:
- Overall season total
- Weeks 1-4
- Weeks 5-9
- Weeks 10-14
For example, Mahomes has a 0.30 EPA for the season, a 0.30 EPA in Weeks 1-4, a 0.31 EPA in Weeks 5-9 and a 0.28 EPA in Weeks 10-14. The rankings in parenthesis are for the rate during that time period. If there’s an “N/A” listed, it’s because the quarterback wasn’t considered “passer rating qualified” during the given timeframe.
Nos. 1-10 EPA rankings
| player | Overall | Week 1-4 | Week 5-9 | Week 10-14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.30 (1) |
0.30 (1) |
0.31 (2) |
0.28 (2) |
|
|
0.21 (2) |
0.26 (2) |
0.39 (1) |
0.04 (17) |
|
|
0.20 (3) |
0.26 (3) |
0.20 (5) |
0.13 (7) |
|
|
0.15 (4) |
0.12 (7) |
-0.10 (23) |
0.36 (1) |
|
|
0.14 (5) |
0.00 (18) |
0.21 (4) |
0.14 (6) |
|
|
0.13 (6) |
0.04 (12) |
0.18 (7) |
0.19 (4) |
|
|
0.13 (7) |
0.18 (5) |
0.22 (3) |
0.01 (22) |
|
|
0.12 (8) |
0.10 (9) |
0.07 (12) |
0.20 (3) |
|
|
0.11 (9) |
0.21 (4) |
-0.02 (18) |
0.16 (5) |
|
|
0.10 (10) |
-0.39 (N/A) |
0.43 (N/A) |
0.11 (9) |
Mahomes’ EPA rates throughout the season certainly make his case for the league MVP award, even if his passer rating has fluctuated a bit.
Tagovailoa has come back down to earth in the past five weeks (four games). Here’s his passer rating and EPA per dropback in those games:
- Week 10 vs. Browns: 135.0 passer rating, 0.51 EPA
- Week 12 vs. Texans: 96.9 passer rating, 0.16 EPA
- Week 13 at 49ers: 79.7 passer rating, -0.32 EPA
- Week 14 at Chargers: 65.3 passer rating, -0.18 EPA
Allen’s steady drop in EPA rate in the three time periods could have something to do with the elbow injury he suffered at the beginning of November. Burrow’s steady climb in EPA in three periods is an example of why Burrow has jumped into the MVP conversation, passing Allen along the way.
It might be a little surprising to find Jalen Hurts at No. 7, especially considering the Eagles quarterback took the lead in overall passer rating at 108.4. But EPA rates in a Week 10 loss to Washington (-0.30) and in a tight, low-scoring win over Indianapolis in Week 11 (-0.32) put a dent in his numbers. Hurts played a monster game in Week 13, though, in the Eagles’ romp over the Titans where he produced a 0.36 EPA rate.
And how did the Lions’ Goff start producing like a top-five quarterback? Goff posted EPA rates of 0.56 at Chicago in Week 10, 0.54 vs. Jacksonville in Week 13 and 0.44 vs. Minnesota in Week 14. Goff’s emergence has led to the Lions winning four of their last five games.
And where did the Jaguars’ Lawrence come from? He’s been sneaky good most of this season despite Jacksonville’s record. Lawrence leads the NFL from Weeks 10-14 with a 111.7 passer rating.
Nos. 11-20
| player | Overall | Week 1-4 | Week 5-9 | Week 10-14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.07 (11) |
0.02 (16) |
0.13 (9) |
0.07 (14) |
|
|
0.07 (12) |
0.02 (17) |
0.09 (11) |
0.09 (13) |
|
|
0.05 (13) |
0.15 (N/A) |
0.05 (13) |
0.03 (19) |
|
|
0.05 (14) |
-0.09 (25) |
0.18 (6) |
0.05 (16) |
|
|
0.05 (15) |
0.07 (11) |
-0.06 (N/A) |
0.07 (15) |
|
|
0.05 (16) |
-0.11 (28) |
0.10 (10) |
0.12 (8) |
|
|
0.04 (17) |
0.14 (6) |
-0.03 (19) |
0.03 (18) |
|
|
0.02 (18) |
-0.01 (19) |
-0.00 (17) |
0.37 (N/A) |
|
|
0.02 (19) |
0.07 (10) |
0.04 (14) |
-0.04 (26) |
|
|
0.02 (20) |
-0.06 (22) |
-0.00 (16) |
0.10 (10) |
The Giants’ Daniel Jones produced EPA rates of 0.41, 0.29, 0.14 and 0.55 during New York’s four wins in five games in Weeks 5-10. But his rates fell significantly in their three losses in Weeks 11, 12 and 14: -0.03 vs. Detroit, -0.08 at Dallas, -0.05 vs. Philadelphia, respectively.
Chicago’s Justin Fields continues his steady play with his EPA in Weeks 10-14 receiving a slight uptick from the previous five weeks.
You can’t deny Justin Herbert’s skillset. But you also can’t deny how Herbert should be producing more like his first four weeks rather than slightly below average when compared to the rest of the league. The Chargers quarterback only amassed an 80.1 passer rating in Weeks 5-9, ranking 25th out of 31 qualified passers.
The Falcons didn’t light the world on fire with Marcus Mariota under center through the first eight weeks, but they did post a 4-4 record, though. Since then, Mariota has really fallen off the map as the Falcons have lost four of their last five games. The offense’s highest scoring output in those four losses was only 17 points in Week 9. It’s no wonder the Falcons are moving on to rookie Desmond Ridder as the starter in Week 15.
Nos. 21-33
| player | Overall | Week 1-4 | Week 5-9 | Week 10-14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.02 (21) |
0.04 (13) |
0.04 (15) |
-0.03 (24) |
|
|
-0.01 (22) |
0.10 (8) |
-0.07 (22) |
-0.08 (27) |
|
|
-0.03 (23) |
-0.03 (20) |
-0.11 (24) |
0.10 (12) |
|
|
-0.06 (24) |
-0.07 (24) |
-0.06 (21) |
0.14 (N/A) |
|
|
-0.06 (25) |
-0.04 (21) |
-0.04 (20) |
-0.09 (29) |
|
|
-0.06 (26) |
0.03 (15) |
-0.14 (27) |
-0.09 (28) |
|
|
-0.07 (27) |
0.22 (N/A) |
-0.17 (29) |
0.02 (21) |
|
|
-0.08 (28) |
N/A |
-0.16 (28) |
-0.01 (23) |
|
|
-0.08 (29) |
-0.08 (25) |
-0.27 (31) |
0.03 (20) |
|
|
-0.11 (30) |
-0.10 (27) |
-0.14 (N/A) |
N/A |
|
|
-0.12 (31) |
-0.17 (30) |
-0.13 (26) |
-0.04 (25) |
|
|
-0.14 (32) |
-0.05 (N/A) |
-0.11 (25) |
-0.40 (N/A) |
|
|
-0.15 (33) |
-0.23 (31) |
0.02 (20) |
-0.16 (30) |
Tom Brady only has one season with an EPA rate lower than where he currently stands when he produced a 0.00 rate in 2019, his final season in New England. Brady’s passer rating per time period has also fallen progressively this season: 97.7 (10th in that time period) in Weeks 1-4, 85.9 (19th) in Weeks 5-9, 85.4 (23rd) in Weeks 10-14.
After a fast start in 2022, the trend for a fall in Lamar Jackson’s production continued. Jackson’s EPA rates the past four seasons:
- 2019: 0.34 (first)
- 2020: 0.09 (14th)
- 2021: 0.04 (16th)
- 2022: -0.01 (22nd)
As for this season, here’s how Jackson’s passer rating looks in the three time frames:
- Weeks 1-4: 105.1 (fourth)
- Weeks 5-9: 84.1 (22nd)
- Weeks 10-14: 81.4 (29th)
And it’s obviously been a rough season for veteran quarterbacks who’ve won (Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson) and played (sorry, Matt Ryan). Career-low single-season EPA rates for these four quarterbacks:
- Rodgers: 0.01 in 2015
- Ryan: -0.04 in 2021
- Stafford: -0.12 in 2009
- Wilson: 0.03 in 2021
There’s been plenty of heat on second-year quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. For some perspective, here’s how the EPA rates for the other quarterbacks who’ve taken limited snaps in New York and New England, respectively:
(Photo: Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)
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