A narrow postseason field leads to more robust analysis. But we don’t want to overthink things. Remember, about two-thirds of offense vs. defense outcomes, generally, are dictated by the offense.
So generally, you would take the points allowed by the defense and move them two thirds of the way to the points scored by the offense. Of course, there are exceptions at the extreme. For the remaining teams, Niners vs. running backs is more of a Niners stat than opponent stat. But defenses that dictate outcomes are rare. Yet defensive matchups matter, even if they’re less predictive than offensive stats.
Let’s start at QB and make some recommendations for this week. Here’s how the teams rank, including the postseason, in fantasy points allowed per game:
QBs (PPG allowed)
Takeaways: Trevor Lawrence is obviously the play this week. His passing yards prop is 249.5 yards and his TD pass prop (1.5) is just minus-125. The Chiefs have allowed 221 passing yards per game but 1.94 passing TDs per game. Is Lawrence and this Jaguars passing offense above average? Yes. So it’s hard to see Lawrence not going over 250 yards with multiple TD passes.
A QB to avoid is Joe Burrow, who may be down three starting offensive linemen yet has the second-highest passing yards prop at 275.5 yards. The Bills allow 202 passing yards per game and just 1.2 passing TDs per game. Of course, Burrow is a top QB and thus, on paper, a tough matchup. But his offensive line was a question mark before the injuries so, even with decent weather in the forecast for the game, Burrow should be expected to struggle against the Bills pass rush.
RBs (PPR PPG allowed)
- Niners 16.3
- Cowboys 17.9
- Bills 20.6
- Bengals 20.7
- Giants 21.3
- Eagles 22.2
- Chiefs 22.7
- Jaguars 23.3
Takeaways: Isiah Pacheco is in line to have a much better game than is forecast, with his prop set at a pedestrian 53.5 rushing yards. The Jaguars gave up 108 rushing yards per game. Patrick Mahomes runs in the playoffs but it’s hard to imagine Pacheco not getting 80 percent of the RB rushing total. He’s averaged 70.3 yards per game the past nine games (four total touchdowns) and has gone over 53.5 yards eight times (88.9%).
A RB to avoid is Tony Pollard. His prop is currently 46.5 rushing yards. He’s hit the over in three of his past six games, and is 13-5 for the year. However, the way opponents run against the Niners is as much a function of the Niners’ rushing defense as it is the opposing RB. They’re the rare exception to the rule. Plus, expected game script and Ezekiel Elliot touches (his market share relative to Pollard is a football crime) are working against Pollard here.
WRs (PPR PPG allowed)
- Eagles 30.1,
- Bengals 30.2,
- Jaguars 31.4,
- Giants 32.3,
- Bills 35,
- Chiefs 35.1,
- 49ers 37.4,
- Cowboys 37.4
Takeaways: The Eagles funnel runs. So do the Jaguars. But the surprising team here is the Cowboys. Plus, Dallas is banged up in the secondary. While Dallas has a reputation as a top defense, they are susceptible to being attacked with wide receivers. Dallas is really banged up at the slot, where safety Jayron Kearse played against the Bucs before suffering a knee injury. Brandon Aiyuk tied with Juan Jennings with nine slot snaps versus the Seahawks. Aiyuk wasn’t targeted once, and Jennings just three times (one catch, eight yards). Don’t overthink this — Deebo Samuel (O/U 54.5 receiving yards) is the matchup here. Count on the Niners to optimize his usage. This is also, by the numbers, a very good matchup for CeeDee Lamb as the Niners showed last week they are vulnerable to big passing plays. However, Lamb is very aggressively projected at 77.5 receiving yards.
TE (PPR PPG allowed)
- Cowboys 9,
- Bills 9.2
- 49ers 10,
- Eagles 11.2,
- Chiefs 12.4,
- Bengals 12.6,
- Giants 14.3,
- Jaguars 14.6.
Takeaways: You have great matchups of talent on offense vs. defensive weakness with both Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert (almost 30 yards lower than Kelce at O/U 47.5 receiving yards). I think Goedert will smash that over and possibly go over 100 yards. In a one-and-done format where you want to lean toward playing players you think are going to get eliminated, it’s worth playing Goedert this week given his matchup next week is likely to be relatively bad with both the Cowboys and 49ers more prone to yielding WR points.
K (PPG allowed)
- 49ers 4.9,
- Eagles 6.4,
- Bills 6.5,
- Chiefs 7.4,
- Jaguars 7.6,
- Cowboys 8.6,
- Bengals 8.9.
- Giants 9.1.
Takeaways: Weather in January is always a top consideration, but there are no indoor games. The Eagles and Bills are both favorites and facing teams that are stingy in the red zone and force field goals. So playing Tyler Bass or Jake Elliott is the play here. If you want to pick a team that’s likely to lose, for one and done purposes, the best of a bunch of terrible options is Riley Pattersonalthough you can expect Doug Pederson to go for it on fourth down and also to go for two at the drop of a hat.
D/ST (PPG allowed)
- Chiefs 0.9,
- Eagles 3.2,
- 49ers 3.3,
- Bills 3.4,
- Jaguars 3.6,
- Cowboys 5.2,
- Bengals 5.3,
- Giants 5.4.
Takeaways: That Chiefs number is sick. Next best, the Lions, allowed almost three times more. There’s few sacks or turnovers generally versus Patrick Mahomes, plus there’s the risk of negative scoring in points allowed. Obviously giving up few points to opposing D/ST is a winning indicator. The four favorites (as is the case with opposing kicking points) are the strongest here. In a format where you need to pick losers and save the winners for future weeks (my league’s format with 94 entrants), you want to play the Bengals and Cowboys. The theory here is that Josh Allen was sacked seven times last week and is prone to big mistakes and Brock Purdy, for all his excellence, is still a rookie QB against a defense with a top pass rush. But if you have the pick of the field, the Bills are the way to go. Not only do they have a top returner in Nyheim Hines, but they should get a boatload of sacks given the Bengals’ line woes (Burrow sacked four times on 36 pass plays vs. Baltimore).
(Top photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)
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