When betting on sports, there will be some games that you will never forget, and Monday’s Wild Card game between the Cowboys and Buccaneers will be etched into my brain for eternity. Having a bet on the over in that game, as I did, and watching the Bucs have two trips down near the goal line come away with zero points while the over missed by a single point was maddening, but it wasn’t the worst part . Brett Maher missing not one, not two, not three, but four (!) extra points for the Cowboys will go down in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame someday. The missed extra points didn’t cost me a winning week, but a two-unit swing on something some kickers can do with their eyes closed stings a little.
Either way, we move onto the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, where there are only four games, so opportunities are limited as the season winds down to just a final few weeks.
Last week’s record: 0-3, -2.75 units
Season record: 44-41-3, -2.67 units, -2.8% ROI
Just one official play locked in, but another one to keep an eye on. I think the Giants/Eagles game is right on the market while the Bengals/Bills game might seem a little much on the spread. Still, injuries to the Bengals offensive line should greatly diminish their offensive efficiency, just as we saw against Baltimore. Let’s take a look at what the model likes this week.
All odds are from BetMGM.
Best Bets
The Cowboys defense may have looked ferocious against the Bucs’ offense on Monday night, but the 49ers are a major step up in class. Brock Purdy continues to show he’s more than capable in this offense with all the weapons he has around him and they should be able to capitalize on scoring opportunities, unlike Tampa Bay. As for Dallas, Dak Prescott gets talked down on a good bit, but he has been fantastic for most of this season. One thing that I like about Prescott’s matchup against the 49ers defense is that he’s been great against zone coverage this year, and the 49ers are one of the most zone-heavy defenses in the NFL. The 49ers defense doesn’t give up points very often, but with Prescott’s ability to move the ball against zone coverage, this game could reach the upper-40s as my model projects.
Worst line to bet: Over 46.5 (-110)
Lines to watch
I don’t think this is likely to get down to 51, but considering the market is at 53, I’m not in a rush to bet it here. If we don’t see any buyback on the bottom, I’ll probably end up on this over in some capacity, but happy to wait it out for now.
(Photo of Brock Purdy: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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