NFL player props: Tyreek Hill receptions, yards, touchdowns bets breakdown

Over the last four seasons, under the guidance of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill gained 5,247 yards with 343 catches and 46 touches while missing five games. Last year, he set career highs in catches (111) and targets (159). On the downside, Hill gained just 11.2 yards per catch (third year of regression – 17.0, 14.8 and 14.7).

Hill is no longer with the Chiefs after being traded this offseason to the Dolphins. Miami’s wideouts finished last season with 209 catches for 2,237 yards and 14 touchdowns on 328 targets but netted only 10.7 yards per catch.

Here’s a look at Hill’s betting props this season.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Wilfredo Lee/AP

Receptions: 80.5

Hill finished with at least 87 catches in three of the last four years. The Chiefs gave him nine targets per game over this span, leading to a 66.1% catch rate.

Tua Tagovailoa has a reasonable completion rate (66.2) over his first 23 games in the NFL, but he struggled to make plays (6.6 yards per pass attempt). Miami leaned on the rookie Jaylen Waddle (104/1,015/6 on 141 targets) in his rookie season last year, showing the potential of the WR1 in the Dolphins’ offense.

NFL Awards Betting: Coach | Comeback Player | Defensive Rookie | Offensive Rookie

The summer reports have been positive on the development of Tagovailoa and his chemistry with Hill. The Miami combination of Chase Edmonds, Cedric Wilson, Mike Gesicki and Waddle gives the Dolphins better weapons to move the ball but more competition for targets for Hill. In my latest projections, I have Hill on a path for 97 catches for 1,232 yards and 10 scores as I believe that Tagovailoa lives up to his draft pedigree (fifth overall in 2020) this season.

BET: Over 80.5 receptions

Receiving Yards: 1025.5

Based on his sportsbook total for catches (80.5), oddsmakers expect Hill to gain 12.7 yards per catch. Hill averages 13.8 yards per catch during his career with more than one reception per game gaining more than 20 yards.

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Last seasons, the Bills and Patriots ranked first and third in the league versus wide receivers, respectively, pointing to four challenging matchups in yards. I expect regression in pass coverage by New England after losing top cornerback JC Jackson to the Chargers. Bills top cornerback Tre’Davious White will be slowed early in the season with his recovery from a torn ACL.

NFL player props: Tyreek Hill receptions, yards, touchdowns bets breakdown

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