NFL midseason QB EPA rankings: From Tua to Trubisky, who has been most effective?

If I gave you a guess as to which quarterback has been the most effective through the midpoint of the 2022 NFL season using advanced metrics, I’m assuming names like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would quickly come to mind.

You’d be close, but you’d have to snowbird down to Miami to find the top-ranked quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa.

And how far has the Bears’ Justin Fields come since the first four weeks of the year? How far has the Chargers’ Justin Herbert fallen since his ribs injury?

In this dive, I’m revisiting my quarterback outlook from the first quarter of the regular season to see which quarterbacks have maintained their pace or shifted up and down with their results. Here are the metrics I’m using for this examination:

• Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback (via TruMedia)
• Offensive total EPA per play (via TruMedia)
• Passer rating

The differences between the two EPA rates show how much of the offensive successes or struggles fall on the quarterback versus the overall offense. And the EPA per dropback helps account for a quarterback’s ability to run and scramble, as opposed to solely using passer rating.

The players are listed by EPA per dropback, so these “rankings” aren’t subjective and can certainly change game by game.

(Note: Quarterbacks need to be “passer rating qualified” via the NFL’s official stats for this study. Also, these ratings are all entering Week 10 so they don’t include Thursday night’s Panthers-Falcons matchup).

EPA/Passer rating rankings through Week 9

Shocked to see Tagovailoa at the top of the charts? He’s only watched his numbers improve when splitting the season into quarters.

Tua Tagovailoa this season

Meanwhile, Mahomes, Allen and the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts have been stellar the entire season. There’s a reason why they make up the top three The Athletic‘s midseason MVP poll.

What’s also strange is how Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ Zach Wilson have just about the same rates at the midpoint. No wonder Rodgers has appeared so frustrated on a weekly basis.

And Mac Jones’ rates are reason enough for concern for the Patriots as they’ve been along the same below-average pace all season. For context, here’s a glimpse at Bailey Zappe’s rates through Weeks 5-9 (Zappe isn’t passer rating qualified via the NFL’s official stats):

• EPA per dropback: 0.15 (eighth over the specified time frame)
• Offensive Total EPA per play: 0.11 (ninth)
• Passer rating: 99.6 (ninth)

Now let’s take a look at some of the quarterbacks who have improved or declined since Week 4. The rankings are where each “riser” or “faller” ranked in the specified time frame:

Risers

Maybe Jimmy G. just needed to warm up before showing he can still succeed as a starting NFL quarterback.

He’s thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last four games. Plus, Garoppolo is coming off a sparkling game in Week 8 against the Rams during which he completed 84 percent of his passes in the Niners’ 31-14 win. It probably didn’t hurt to have Christian McCaffrey explode for the first time with San Francisco in that game, but the Niners were without Deebo Samuel.

Perhaps this shouldn’t be a stunner, however, since Garoppolo posted some of the league’s better rates last season:

• EPA per dropback: 0.15 (seventh among qualified quarterbacks)
• Offensive Total EPA per play: 0.14 (fifth)
• Passer rating: 98.7 (ninth)

Joe Burrow’s four-interception outing in a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh saddled him with some poor metrics early on. Burrow’s resurgence began in Weeks 3-4 with five passing scores in that stretch and passer ratings of 114.9 and 115.9, respectively.

The Bengals QB took a small dip and plenty of shots (five sacks) in Week 8 after losing Ja’Marr Chase to a hip injury before the team’s loss at Cleveland. Then Joe Mixon went TD crazy the next week leading to good results for Burrow (78.6 completion rate, 109.2 passer rating) in a win over Carolina.

The Falcons have kept pace (very relatively speaking) in the NFC South with a modest offense. And Atlanta hasn’t asked Mariota to carry a ton on his back in the passing game. But he was efficient in Weeks 6-8 with passer ratings of 144.6, 118.7 and 105.2, respectively. Now, in two of those games, he threw fewer than 15 times with a combined 253 passing yards. He also picks up around six carries per game and has scored three rushing touchdowns in 2022.

Fairly certain I wouldn’t have picked Mariota as one of the more stable quarterbacks in the NFC South at this season’s midpoint.

The Giants quarterback produced three of his best passer rating games in Weeks 5-7 during wins over the Packers, Ravens and Jaguars: 100.2, 112.1, 94.0. He didn’t throw for more than 220 yards in any of those three games, but he protected the football and got the job done. And even with a 94.0 rating against Jacksonville, Jones rushed for 107 yards on 11 carries with one TD.

You would think Jones could keep this pace up with games against the Texans and Lions in the next two weeks.

There’s a noticeable difference with the Bears quarterback these days. Fields jump-started in Week 5 with a 118.7 passer rating and a 71.4 completion percentage. Then he yielded a 120.0 rating and two TD passes in Week 8 and a 106.7 rating and three TD passes in Week 9. Oh, he also rushed for an NFL QB-record 178 yards on 15 carries and one TD last week against the Dolphins. He’s scored a rushing TD in each of the last three games.

It’s too bad the Bears couldn’t capitalize on Fields’ improved play, going 1-4 in the last five weeks.

Fallers

Just when you think Trevor Lawrence was turning the corner, his passer rating dips 20 points. The Jaguars quarterback dropped two of his worst passer rating games of the season in Weeks 5 and 8 with a 54.0 rating in a loss to the Texans and a 52.2 rating in a loss to the Broncos. He threw one TD and four picks combined in those two games.

On the other side of the spectrum, Lawrence produced a 113.1 rating in a Week 6 loss to the Colts and a 109.0 rating in a Week 9 win over the Raiders. Lawrence is about half and half in terms of solid and sour play in his second season.

There’s no way to know how the early season rib injury has been affecting the Chargers quarterback. Herbert ripped the Texans in Week 3 for 340 yards, two touchdowns and a 113.2 rating, which occurred after the injury. But the ailment is probably something you can’t dismiss as a reason for his falling rates in the last few weeks.

Herbert produced a season-low 66.3 rating in a Week 6 loss to Denver. He’s thrown an interception in each of the last three games. And yet the Chargers went 3-1 during Weeks 5-9 (bye in Week 8), so Herbert’s dip hasn’t badly affected the team’s hunt for a playoff berth.

The Lions offense has fallen off a cliff recently, and the numbers haven’t been pretty since Week 5. Jared Goff tossed 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in the first four games. He threw three touchdowns and four interceptions in the next four games.

In Weeks 5, 7 and 9, the Lions combined for 21 measly points. In a Week 7 loss to Dallas, Goff completed 80.8 percent of his passes but still threw two picks and the Lions scored six points. Bizarre.

It’s often unfair to judge the Ravens quarterback in terms of simply passer rating because that will never tell his whole story. Lamar Jackson went wild with a 142.6 passer rating in Week 2 and a 110.3 mark in Week 3. He’s only had one single-game rating above 88.0 in the past six weeks and three games with rates below 75.0.

He’s very dangerous running the ball, ranking eighth overall in rushing yards heading into Week 10 with 635 yards. But part of his dip comes from having no rushing touchdowns since Week 3. Imagine how dangerous the Ravens could become if Jackson really gets rolling again given they’ve won four of their last five games.

The Broncos quarterback caught flack out of the gate this season following a number of lackluster performances and it’s only gone downhill from there. His numbers really started to drift in Week 5 with a 54.9 passer rating and two interceptions in the loss to the Colts. When we’re to the point where a mid-80s passer rating has become “good” for Wilson, it really may be time to panic.

(Photo: Jamie Sabau / USA Today)