In this mailbag: Virginia Zakas offers a pessimistic timeline on Josh Allen’s elbow, explains why OBJ is such a risky proposition and much more!
Inside Injuries was founded by an orthopedic radiologist, Dr. Anand Lalaji (aka Dr. A), who contributes to all of the injury writeups. Dr. A team of doctors and data scientists put together to create an algorithm to evaluate the impact that injuries have on a player. This algorithm powers all of Inside Injuries’ analysis and determines each player’s Injury Risk, Health Performance Factor (the level a player is expected to perform at if they return too soon, for example) and Optimal Recovery Time. This information is based on years of medical experience and historical injury research and has proven to be incredibly accurate in determining how injuries will impact a player’s performance and risk of future injuries.
Is Josh Allen likely to play? And if so, will he see a dip in expected production? — Chad D.
I don’t see Allen playing this Sunday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss a few more weeks. Scans on Allen’s elbow showed damage to the UCL (ulnar collateral ligament). This runs along the inside of the elbow and is important for stability. The damage is not severe enough to require surgery, but it will take more than a few weeks to fully heal. While the Bills have said it is considered day-to-day, week-to-week is more realistic.
The Inside Injuries algorithm has determined that this is a grade 2 sprain, meaning there is a partial tear to the ligament. With time it should heal well on its own, but playing before then is a major risk. That’s especially true in the first few weeks. I’m not overly concerned that Allen could cause the tear to get bad enough that it would require surgery — it would require a very specific type of play, similar to the one that caused the initial injury, to do this. Playing through it does come with plenty of risk, though. Not only would it hurt his performance, but returning too soon could lead to an aggravation and an even longer overall recovery time. The Bills are in a solid playoff position right now, and having Allen healthy in the final stretch of the season and into the playoffs is far more important than rushing him back in the next few weeks.
According to our algorithm, Allen’s injury comes with a 5-6 week Optimal Recovery Time, although I am expecting him to play long before he reaches that mark in December. A sprained UCL can lead to pain, reduced range of motion and weakness. If he returns in the next few weeks, expect the Bills to rely heavily on the run game, and Allen won’t be launching too many deep balls. The longer he rests, the better he will perform.
How long until Odell Beckham Jr. is at like 80 percent healthy? — Hitesh P.
OBJ comes with one of the highest Injury Risk percentages I’ve seen for an athlete who is currently on the verge of being healthy — right now it sits at 51%. Beckham is almost nine months removed from surgery to repair a second torn ACL. For most athletes returning from an ACL tear, this is a crucial mark to hit in order to reduce the risk of re-tearing the ligament. Because this is OBJ’s second one, 12 months is a much better target.
Beckham is a hot commodity, as he could be fully cleared any day now, but signing him comes with an incredible amount of risk. His HPF (Health Performance Factor — projected performance based on overall health) has just improved significantly and is now Above Average (70%), according to our algorithm. OBJ should have made enough progress to provide some value for whoever signs him, but I’m not convinced he will be able to stay on the field. Not only is another knee injury a concern, but he’s at an increased risk of a soft tissue injury such as a hamstring/quad/groin strain. Beckham is a high risk/high reward stash heading into the second half of the season. Whoever signs him will need to give him plenty of time to re-acclimate to the game in order to prevent another injury.
Where’s Keenan Allen? — Spencer K.
According to head coach Brandon Staley, Keenan Allen’s hamstring “has not responded the way they hoped.” This is quite an understatement as Allen has now been bothered by this injury for two months. The Chargers are still calling him day-to-day, yet he wasn’t at practice on Wednesday. Allen has now had two setbacks with the hamstring, and at this point I don’t understand why they haven’t placed him on IR so he can allow the muscle to fully heal.
Allen’s second aggravation happened almost three weeks ago and he still isn’t ready to practice. Our algorithm gave him a five-week Optimal Recovery Time from that date, meaning he won’t be fully healed until around Week 12. He remains in the High Injury Risk category. There’s a good chance he stays there for the remainder of the season due to the highly recurrent nature of hamstring strains. I’m hopeful he will take the time he needs to heal and can provide some value late in the season, but he isn’t ready yet.
Will Mark Andrews be 100% after the bye week? — Maxwell L.
Andrews missed a game for the first time in his five-year career this past Monday night, but there is some good news. Andrews has 24 days between games as the Ravens have a Week 10 bye, and our projections are promising. While Andrews still comes with an Elevated Injury Risk (currently 17%), his HPF is already back at Peak, and that will only improve with 10 days before their next game. I always hesitate to say a player will truly be 100% when coming off of an injury, but he should be close to it by Week 11.
Andrews was already dealing with a knee injury heading into Week 8, and then he appeared to suffer an AC sprain to his right shoulder. AC sprains heal well on their own, they just need time. An injection can also help manage the pain if it’s still bothering him at all. The Ravens made the right decision to sit him in Week 9 so the knee and shoulder could heal fully. Now he should have plenty of time to rehab and get healthier for the second half of the season.
Will D’Andre Swift ever be 100% this year? — Adam L.
D’Andre Swift is a bit of a wild card as we head into the second half of the season. He suffered an ankle injury early in the season but was playing through it. It’s still showing up on the injury report, so I suspect it was more significant than the Lions initially let on or he aggravated it and made the sprain worse. Swift then suffered an AC sprain in Week 3, the same injury that sidelined him for a month last year.
Now Swift is back on the field, but he is clearly limited. In the past two games, he has just seven carries for 16 yards. Head coach Dan Campbell has been noncommittal on Swift’s usage going forward, only indicating that he isn’t ready for a full workload yet. He said he expects to use Swift “a little bit more this week.” The way they are using him right now just doesn’t make sense. They need to shut him down until he can get healthy and actually be effective because the limited snaps aren’t helping the team, and it’s only going to delay Swift’s return to full health. Swift still comes with a High Injury Risk and a Below Average HPF.
Do we temper expectations going forward with Kyler Murray’s hamstring? – Stu N.
Murray popped up on the injury report Wednesday with a hamstring strain and was officially a DNP. He appeared to suffer the injury late in the first half on Sunday but finished the game. His mobility seemed to be impacted in the second half as he rushed for just seven yards and took five sacks. I would consider Murray truly questionable for Week 10. If he does suit up, he will continue to be hampered by the injury. Our algorithm has given him a 2-3 week optimal recovery time. By playing through this he risks a more severe injury and one that could linger for well over a month. Murray’s effectiveness relies heavily on his mobility. Hamstring strains aren’t always a big deal for a quarterback, but based on Murray’s style of play we need to lower expectations for at least the next few weeks.
(Top photo: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
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