Here are a few future plays that should still offer value so close to the start of the regular season. All odds as of Aug. 30.
Dallas Cowboys under 9 or 9½ wins
Under 9½ wins +158 at Caesars; under 9 wins +220 at DraftKings
The Cowboys had a tremendous campaign in 2021, winning 12 games and the NFC East in Coach Mike McCarthy’s second season. A lot of skill and fortitude go into a year like that, but so does a bit of luck. Specifically, the Cowboys enjoyed a lot of turnover luck on defense.
Odds Against
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Dallas generated 9.5 more points than expected from takeaways after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each takeaway. That’s the 21st-highest advantage for any team since 2002 — encompassing 640 seasons. Generally speaking, turnovers have always been more random than people think, and success at forcing them doesn’t carry over from year to year, leaving the Cowboys in a bit of a pickle. Teams finishing a season in the 90th percentile or higher for defensive turnover EPA over that span have won, on average, 10.1 games in that season — but only 8.4 games the following year. Their winning percentage has dropped from .630 to .528, the latter equating to a nine-win season over 17 weeks. The Cowboys were in the 98th percentile last season.
Then there is left tackle Tyron Smith, who needed surgery for a hamstring/knee injury and is out indefinitely. The eight-time Pro Bowl pick was the fourth-highest-rated offensive lineman last season, per the game charts at Pro Football Focus, allowing just two sacks over 460 pass-blocking snaps. In fact, quarterback Dak Prescott’s sack rate went from 3.9 percent with Smith on the field to 6.6 percent when he was on the sideline. More sacks mean less offensive efficiency, giving Dallas one more thing to worry about.
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
+350 at DraftKings and +360 at Caesars
Carolina is a long shot to win the NFC South with Tom Brady back under center for the reigning division winners in Tampa Bay, yet a playoff spot for the Panthers isn’t as far-fetched as you might think. Based on the potential upgrade at quarterback — the team acquired Baker Mayfield from the Cleveland Browns to take over for Sam Darnold — and possible improvement of the offensive line, this squad has upside. It also has playmakers: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Laviska Shenault Jr., Terrace Marshall Jr. and Rashard Higgins, among others.
Based on this, my projections (using each team’s preseason power ranking, adjusted for the new quarterback situation) give the Panthers a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs, which equates to a fair-market price of +195. DraftKings is offering +350 for the Panthers to qualify for the postseason, and Caesars is offering +360. That projects an expected value of about $0.50 for every $1 wagered.
Houston Texans over 5½ wins
+160 at DraftKings and +175 at Caesars
Last season, quarterback Davis Mills led all rookies with four 300-yard passing games and finished second with 16 passing touchdowns despite starting just 13 games. He should have a healthier offensive line this year; Houston’s line ranked behind only the Philadelphia Eagles’ and the Green Bay Packers’ for the most adjusted man games lost to injury in 2022. Adjusted man games takes into account the quantity and quality of the player missing from the lineup, giving us a better idea of the true impact of the absence.
Houston also finished 0-4 in one-score games, indicating the Texans suffered a bit of bad luck in that regard, thanks in part to a poor kicking unit. The Texans’ kickers combined to make 21 of 27 field goals last year (78 percent), the fifth-lowest success rate in the league and seven percentage points below that of an average team.
If the kicking game bounces back even a little bit and the passing game takes a step forward, the reward for wagering on over 5½ wins is worth the risk. My projections have Houston finishing 6-11 or better almost half the time.
Daniel Jones under 3,500.5 passing yards
I am not going to sugarcoat it: Daniel Jones has been underwhelming since being drafted No. 6 overall in 2019. Last year, he was the 22nd-best passer of 31 qualified quarterbacks, per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating, and he ranked 19th out of 30 passers according to Pro Football Focus. In other words, he’s a solidly below-average NFL quarterback, no matter his draft position. Jones’s per-game rates over the past three seasons would project him for 3,757 passing yards, but health and performance issues have kept him from playing a full season in any of his three years with the New York Giants. His best passing season was his rookie year, when he threw for 3,027 yards over 13 games (12 starts).
Plus, the presence of Tyrod Taylor could cast a shadow over Jones’s fourth year as a pro. Assuming Taylor’s preseason back injury doesn’t linger, Coach Brian Daboll probably won’t hesitate to call on the backup if Jones continues to struggle, bolstering the case for the under, which can be found at Caesars for a price of -115.