NFL Draft order 2023 update: Lions hold No. 1, plus needs for top-10 teams

As tends to be the case, the NFL draft season could start a little earlier than planned for some of the league’s struggling clubs (as well as for a few contenders who played their trade cards right). Each week, we’ll set the table for the potential top-10 order and what it all means.

We’ll also factor into the equation Austin Mock’s updated numbers. He projects the score for each game and the final win percentage for each team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our No. 1 pick odds and each team’s most likely draft landing spot. (You can see Mock’s full projected top 10 draft order at the end of this post.)

How it stands through Week 7:

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 18.2%
Projected pick: No. 2

If the Lions finish the year with the No. 1 overall pick, Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell will have to face the question of whether or not Jared Goff is their QB of the future, or if Bryce Young/CJ Stroud makes more sense now. Detroit’s defense is still the worst in football, but Goff’s hardly been scintillating through 20 games since coming over from Los Angeles.

The Lions have a second first-rounder in 2023 due to the Matthew Stafford (and Goff) trade and absolutely need more talent, both in the secondary and up front defensively. But if the Lions have a shot at QB1 in this draft, it might be too tough to pass up.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 32.5%
Projected pick: No. 1

Davis Mills remains serviceable as a short-term starter, but his presence won’t do anything to dissuade the Texans from focusing on quarterbacks. Mills’ cheap rookie deal (and the experience he’s gained as a starter) might even make him a perfect QB2 to help mentor Young, Stroud, Will Levis or whoever the front office prefers.

The Texans added a couple of legit talents to their secondary during the 2022 draft: CB Derek Stingley Jr. and S Jalen Pitre. With a second high Round 1 selection possibly headed its way, Houston could spend a top-three pick on a quarterback, then turn around and nab an elite front-line defender (Will Anderson Jr.? Jalen Carter?).

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 15.7%
Projected pick: No. 3

PJ Walker was terrific last weekend and should get a chance to keep the quarterback job in Carolina for the rest of 2022, but the Panthers still need firm, long-term direction under center moving forward. A lot of this is going to depend on where the team’s coaching search lands, but a QB need feels obvious.

The other thing here, especially after the Christian McCaffrey trade, is that the team is pretty thin on offensive talent. Carolina needs receiver and tight end help. Defensively, Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn can be a terrific trio to build around. Fix the offense.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 3.4%
Projected pick: No. 8

While our projections have this Saints pick sliding down a few spots, this still shapes up as a rich-get-richer situation in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts likely has put an end to any QB conversations for now, so the Eagles could focus their attention on guarding themselves against future losses.

Most noteworthy on that list: C Jason Kelce, 34, whose contract expires after the 2023 season; DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, whose contracts are void after this season; CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay, on track to hit free agency after the ’23 and ’24 seasons, respectively. Edge rusher is another spot where the strength of this draft class plays to the Eagles’ advantage.

5. Houston Texans via Cleveland (2-5)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 5.5%
Projected pick: No. 5

We’ve already hit on the Texans’ needs. It’s worth reiterating, though, what a franchise-altering opportunity might be in the offing here. Houston fans will be rooting hard for the wheels to fall off in Cleveland.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 5.2%
Projected pick: No. 4

It’ll be fascinating to track how Geno Smith performs over the Seahawks’ final 11 games. To date, he’s been one of the biggest stories of the NFL season, but he’s also 32 and an impending free agent. Would the Seahawks really commit to him for the next two or three years if one of the top QB prospects lands in their lap?

If Seattle doesn’t go quarterback, this could be another team that tries to load up on front-seven talent. GM John Schneider appears to have found two gems at cornerback from his 2022 class (fourth-rounder Coby Bryant and fifth-rounder Tariq Woolen). The play this time around might be to hunt an impact DT and a disruptive edge, to pair with current rookie Boye Mafe.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 4.2%
Projected pick: No. 6

The Steelers need offensive line help, specifically at tackle (starting over on either side would be fine) and center. Kenny Pickett’s development is going to be somewhat dependent on how well he’s protected. And while Najee Harris’ broken tackle highlight tape can be a lot of fun to watch, he needs help in front of him.

The pass-rushing dropoff after TJ Watt’s injury has been alarming, but Watt still hopes to play this season. Looking for more help up front defensively (Cam Heyward turns 34 in May) could also be an option.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 3.8%
Projected pick: No. 9

Expect to see the Jaguars paired with wide receivers a bunch leading up to April. The front office has committed heavy resources to help Trevor Lawrence, but 32-year-old Marvin Jones can hit free agency this offseason and high-priced Christian Kirk could use an explosive running mate.

This probably would be too high for a safety, so how about pairing emerging star CB Tyson Campbell with former Georgia teammate Kelee Ringo or Christian Gonzalez? Another playmaker along the defensive line wouldn’t be the worst idea, either, particularly an interior option to draw attention away from 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker.

9. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 1.2%
Projected pick: No. 13

The good news: Dylan Parham looks like a real find for Las Vegas at guard or center. The bad news: The Raiders still need offensive line help, especially after throwing in the towel on Alex Leatherwood this summer, and could use more help on the edge and in the secondary.

In general, taking the most stable player possible here feels imperative for a franchise that didn’t have a first-round pick in 2022 and has already cut its 2021 first-rounder (Leatherwood) and both firsts from 2020 (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette ). The Raiders are a talented team without a foundation, and although this isn’t an elite year for tackles, a foundational tackle would help a lot.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 1.6%
Projected pick: No. 10

Atlanta’s offensive line has been one of the most underrated things of the NFL season to date and Arthur Smith’s running game has been very good for long stretches already this year. The Falcons are better than you probably think, but holes remain at some pretty big spots. Specifically QB and edge.

Marcus Mariota has done a nice job giving Atlanta’s offense balance as a reliable running threat and Desmond Ridder continues to develop. However, there’s still no firm long-term answer there. Defensively, 2021 first-rounder Arnold Ebiketie has gotten off to a fine start as a rookie but needs help on the edge. The Falcons have Grady Jarrett, Ebiketie and not much else to lean on up front defensively right now.

---

You’ve seen some of the numbers in our write-ups above, but if you’re curious, here is how Austin Mock’s projections have the top 10 sorting out for the 2023 NFL Draft:

(Top photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)