By November, we have a large enough sample to start separating what’s real and what’s not for NFL Draft prospects. The elite players in the 2023 class (Will Anderson Jr., Bijan Robinson, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, etc.) have little left to prove on the field, but many others on the fringe or trying to climb the board have forced major changes in their profiles.
We’re putting another handful of prospects under the microscope here.
First up: A playmaker on offense who I’ve been eager to watch closely (and he didn’t disappoint).
In an era of spread offense, the ball-winning “X” receiver has been deemphasized by the year. Instead of watching an aging prototype rob him of his value, though, Quentin Johnston has offered up a reminder of what the physical freaks at that position can look like.
As a straight-line runner, Johnston’s game speed suggests he’ll test out in the low-to-mid 4.4s in the 40-yard dash. He also has the leaping ability to weaponize his height against defensive backs who try to body him up, his catch radius is adequate to produce in contested-catch situations at the next level, and he can decelerate and change directions in ways we’ve come to expect 5-foot-10 slot types to move.
In a narrow win over Oklahoma State a couple of weekends ago, Johnston put his full repertoire on display against the plethora of looks defensive coordinator Derek Mason threw his way. Here, facing soft zone coverage, Johnston wraps his in-breaking routes behind underneath droppers, finds open space and settles down into it:
In one-on-one matchups, Johnston’s speed is where he (literally and figuratively) separates from others. Simple leverage or footwork mistakes against Johnson can cost defenses explosive gains. In this next clip, Johnson aligns into the boundary, sells a go route to force panic from the defensive back, then breaks across the DB’s face and finishes with a difficult catch through contact.
When it comes to separation and speed, both qualities are nuanced and contextual. They’re truly only as valuable as a player’s feel and tempo allow them to be.
For Johnston’s height (listed at 6-4, 215), he’s not a hulking receiver, so he’s going to have to deal with physical corners challenging him at the line of scrimmage and at the top of his routes. Foot agility and hip mobility are key to keeping your body clean as a lighter receiver, and that’s also how Johnston can get “NFL open” in tight coverage: by changing speeds before stopping on a dime to present himself to his quarterback.
Against a press-man look, Johnston wins the leverage battle immediately with an efficient release and pushes the corner vertically before snapping off on his hitch route. From there, he displays my favorite of his traits: the ability to get back into sixth gear quickly and create extra offense with the ball in his hands. Just as smoothly as he sunk his hips on the hitch, Johnston pivots out and escapes a couple of tackles, turning a 7-yard grab into 25-plus.
Those kinds of plays are invaluable, and his knack for producing them is a major reason why I’m considering Johnston as potentially the best receiver in this class.
They don’t make many Carlos Dunlap-sized edge rushers anymore, so it’s difficult to paint a clean picture for where and how Zach Harrison lands at the NFL level.
One of the things that make his usage at the edge hard to reconcile is his lack of a power rush, which a player of his stature (6-6, 272) needs to make up for the natural difficulties he’ll have with hip mobility and turning the corner. I would like to see more reps of Harrison putting his lead foot down and driving through tackles, because he affects the pocket almost anytime he does. Aligning as a nine technique, though, exposes his struggles with his first step and often leaves him in no man’s land.
One thing I love about Harrison’s game is how well he controls tackles in the run game. He can stretch zone plays out laterally and cancel gaps with good leverage and block-destruction technique. (He’s No. 9 in this clip.)
In a more just world, Harrison could trade two inches of height for 20 pounds of weight and slide to three techniques, because I could see a clear future for him as a regular part of a defensive rotation there. As it stands now, I see him as more of a late-day-two to early-day-three pick.
Clean. That’s the word that comes to mind when I think about Christian Gonzalez’s play in coverage. Whether outside or in the slot, Gonzales is prolific in press and off coverage, transitions smoothly with his feet and hips at all three levels of route depth, and has produced at the catch point (seven passes defended, one interception this season).
Against Stanford, an offense that uses long-developing RPOs to force corners onto islands, Gonzalez spent most of the game in press coverage on the boundary and took away the easy throws that the offense covets. Quarterback Tanner McKee (a top-50 prospect on Dane Brugler’s updated 2023 draft board) took a couple of chances vertically against Gonzales, only to see them batted away. Some of the Cardinal’s quick/intermediate timing throws were smothered or deflected at the catch point, as well.
The next week, Gonzalez played the “Star” position against Arizona, working in off coverage and matching slots up the seam. Even when the Wildcats tried to run routes designed to take advantage of leverage problems in Oregon’s defense, Gonzalez recovered well enough to play in-phase. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura didn’t bother trying him for most of the game.
A transfer from Colorado, the 6-2, 200-pound Gonzalez has the requisite size and versatility to provide value akin to Rasul Douglas or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (prior to his position change this season) as an eraser everywhere on the field. Gonzalez’s tackling is a bit poor, though, and it’s a little concerning that Oregon head coach Dan Lanning takes Gonzales off the field in base personnel at times. Still, there’s plenty here to love and believe in.
Nearly a month after suffering a sprained MCL, Jalen finally returned to action in last Saturday’s Florida-Georgia game. Georgia coach Kirby Smart had promised to be cautious with Carter’s workload against the Gators, so he only saw the field on third downs and during a two-minute situation right before the half.
Carter’s absence on early downs took away an opportunity to see what I enjoy most in his game: explosive block destruction. It did, however, allow us to evaluate how much force he felt generating with his previously injured leg.
Jalen Carter on third down for Georgia. He was doing that earlier in the season when he was dealing with the ankle injury.
— Seth Emerson (@SethWEmerson) October 29, 2022
Although Carter only registered one assisted tackle, I was pleased with what I saw from him. On his very first pass-rush rep, he tore up the field and affected the pocket of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Carter also showed the quick hand usage that drew everyone’s attention to him before the season began. He capped off his day with an excellent bull rush and then a free rush on Richardson, thanks to a defensive-line twist in the fourth quarter.
Athletically, Carter is exactly where he needs to be, and he should maintain his place at the top of this year’s interior DL class.
(Photo: Tim Heitman / USA Today)
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