Welcome to my game projections for the Divisional round. If you’re new here, I project the score for each game and the win percentage for each team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on. You can find my best bets for the Divisional round here.
If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circumstance that I’m not confident my model can capture. If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments, and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
NFL Divisional model projections
XMOV is the model’s projected point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publication time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publication time to the right of that number.
All odds are from BetMGM.
| Team | xMOV | Spread | xTotal | Total | xWin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22.9% |
|||||
|
-8.3 |
-8.5 |
53.5 |
53 |
77.1% |
|
|
23.5% |
|||||
|
-7.8 |
-7.5 |
48.2 |
48 |
76.5% |
|
|
33.1% |
|||||
|
-4.8 |
-5.5 |
48.9 |
48.5 |
66.9% |
|
|
35.9% |
|||||
|
-3.7 |
-3.5 |
47 |
46 |
64.1% |
(Photo of Daniel Jones: David Berding/Getty Images)
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