The NFL season starts in less than 10 days, and teams have made their final cuts. We’re waiting for football to start with the Labor Day weekend serving as a nice reminder that summer is ending and fall is kicking off. Soon, we’ll be tuning into Rams vs. Bills on the night of Sept. 8.
The Athletic asked his group of NFL beat writers, editors and national reporters to make their predictions for this season. We asked everything from who will win the Super Bowl on February 12 in Glendale, Ariz., to who will win rookie of the year on both sides of the football. It’s a preseason look at the NFL and how things will play out this season.
Today, we look at The Athletic’s experts’ picks for each division.
AFC East
It’s no surprise that all of our experts think the Bills will win the AFC East. The Patriots dominated the division for almost two decades with Tom Brady leading the way, and now it seems like it is Josh Allen’s turn. Since 2001, the only times the Patriots or Bills didn’t win the division were the Jets in 2002 and Dolphins in 2008. The Bills have won the last two years, and it’s Super Bowl or bust for Buffalo after losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Chiefs last year in the playoffs.
The Athletic’s The NFL model gives the Bills a 72.9% chance of winning the division.
AFC North
The defending AFC champions aren’t getting a whole lot of respect in their own division. Injuries ravaged the Ravens last season, and The Athletic‘s experts think there will be a big bounce back from Lamar Jackson and crew this season. On the other hand, it seems surprising to see the Bengals not getting that much love after their run to the Super Bowl that saw them upset the Titans and Chiefs.
Joe Burrow is entering his third season in Cincinnati, and the Bengals’ young core of players is only getting better, led by Ja’Marr Chase, who finished with 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns in his rookie season.
The Athletic’s The NFL model gives the Ravens the best chance to win the division (38.6%) while the Bengals come in at 32.4%. The Browns are at 23.2%, and that is with Deshaun Watson being suspended for 11 of the 17 games this season.
AFC South
Our experts are big believers in Matt Ryan and Indianapolis’ ability to revive itself after losing to the Jaguars in the last game of the regular season and missing out on a playoff spot. The Colts were one of the most unlucky teams last year in the NFL. They had the seventh-best point differential but somehow only won nine games. That could be explained by losing five of their seven one-score games in 2021.
Tennessee went 6-2 in one-score games last year, and that’s after finishing 7-2 in one-score games in 2020. That’s an impressive record, but will it keep up? Teams usually regress to the mean in one-score games, and this might be the year the Titans’ luck runs out.
The Athletic’s The NFL model gives the Colts a 64.1% chance to win the division while the Titans sit at 30.1. The Jaguars and Texans combine for less than a 6% chance.
AFC West
Welcome to the Wild, Wild West. Is there a more stacked division in all of the NFL? Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr make up the best collection of quarterbacks.
There’s no surprise that our experts favor the Chiefs to win the AFC West again. Since Peyton Manning retired after Super Bowl 50, the Chiefs have won six consecutive AFC West titles under Andy Reid. Not only has Kansas City won every title, but the Chiefs are 32-4 against the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos head-to-head since 2015, including a 5-1 record last season.
It’s a little surprising that only two experts picked the Broncos to win the division. The Athletic’s NFL model gives Denver a 20.4% chance to win the division.
Can Jalen Hurts lead the Philadelphia Eagles to an NFC East title this year? (Photo: Bill Streicher / USA Today)
NFC East
The NFC East comes down to the Cowboys and Eagles. It’s interesting to see our experts so divided on who wins the division. Our experts seem to think that the Eagles had a great offseason and draft in addition to the arrivals of wide receiver AJ Brown and pass rusher Haason Reddick. The Eagles weren’t very good in one-score games last season, going 2-4. Philadelphia also gets one of the easiest schedules this season.
Dallas forced the most turnovers last year in the NFL and had great injury luck, fumble recovery luck and won 63% of their one-score games. It seems our experts think the Cowboys are due for regression this season. The Athletic’s The NFL model is more bullish on the Cowboys and gives them a 59.4% chance to win the NFC East while the Eagles only have a 23.3% chance.
NFC North
Green Bay continues to be elite on offense with Aaron Rodgers leading the way. The Packers have won three consecutive NFC North titles, and our experts expect them to make it four in a row. Rodgers continues to make Green Bay one of the best teams in the NFL in one-score games. Green Bay added defensive players at the top of the draft and hopes that having an elite quarterback with a better defensive unit can lead to another Super Bowl run.
The Athletic’s The NFL model gives the Packers a 70.3% chance to win the division. Our experts don’t expect the Lions to be able to win the division in their second year under Dan Campbell.
It’s interesting that some experts picked the Vikings to win the North. Minnesota played in 14 close games last year and lost eight of them. It makes sense because Minnesota is still loaded on offense with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. New coach Kevin O’Connell comes from the Rams offense and should be able to make the most of the talent on the offensive side of the ball.
NFC South
Tom Brady is back, and every expert thinks the Buccaneers will win the NFC South again after winning it in 2021. The Saints won four consecutive division titles before the Bucs took it last year. Tampa Bay lost guard Ali Marpet to retirement, and center Ryan Jensen is hurt. That could spell trouble for Brady with his offensive line.
The Athletic’s The NFL model only gives the Bucs a 58.7% chance to win the NFC South. The Saints have the second-best chance at 31.3%.
NFC West
The NFC West can put up a good battle with the AFC West for the best division in football. It’s not surprising to see the defending Super Bowl champion Rams get the majority of the votes here.
San Francisco is transitioning from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance at starting quarterback, and that will create some intrigue, especially after the news this week that Jimmy G is sticking around San Francisco for this season. The 49ers had some of the most injuries in the NFL last season and could be in for a strong 2022 if they stay healthy and Lance performs at quarterback.
The Athletic’s The NFL model gives the Rams a 44.4% chance to win the division, the 49ers a 34.9% chance and the Cardinals a 19.1% chance.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
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