What exactly is the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award? That’s the question facing bettors of the league’s most ambiguous honor, awarded to players for “overcoming adversity” from the previous year.
In recent seasons, that’s meant anything from injury to inconsistency to incarceration, although we’ve seen a much more consistent trend over the last decade. Last year’s winner, Joe Burrow, became the sixth player in the last seven years to overcome injury en route to winning the award, and he was the fourth consecutive quarterback – and 10th in the last 14 years – to cash in this market.
Oddsmakers expect a shift in this year’s market, with running back Derrick Henry (+400) favored atop a group looking to bounce back in 2022. Here are the current odds at BetMGM and three players we’re eyeing to return to form:
2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Derrick Henry | +400 |
| Jameis Winston | +500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +750 |
| Baker Mayfield | +800 |
| Michael Thomas | +1100 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | +1400 |
| Daniel Jones | +1600 |
| JK Dobbins | +1600 |
| Marcus Mariota | +2000 |
| Chase Young | +2000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +2000 |
| Allen Robinson | +2500 |
| Cam Akers | +2500 |
| Chris Godwin | +3000 |
| Travis Etienne | +3000 |
| Danielle Hunter | +4000 |
| Julio Jones | +4000 |
| Robert Woods | +5000 |
| Drew Lock | +6600 |
| JJ Watt | +6600 |
| Will Fuller | +6600 |
| Carl Lawson | +6600 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +8000 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +8000 |
| Tre’Davious White | +8000 |
| Marcus Peters | +8000 |
| Raheem Mostert | +8000 |
| Jeffrey Okudah | +8000 |
| Jaycee Horn | +10000 |
| Marlon Humphrey | +10000 |
| Darnell Henderson | +10000 |
| Gus Edwards | +10000 |
| Ronnie Stanley | +10000 |
| Brandon Graham | +10000 |
| Trey Lance | +10000 |
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Best bets to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans (+400)
In a sense, Henry already “came back” a year ago after breaking his foot in Week 8, an injury that cost him the second half of the regular season before his triumphant postseason return. Yet it still feels like the general market is pessimistic about the Titans’ running back returning to form in his age-28 season.
Are we sure that’ll be the case? Henry was on a record pace before his absence, rushing for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns while playing on that broken leg for the entirety of that Week 8 win. Had he finished the season, he was on pace to lead the NFL in rushing yards (1,991) and touchdowns (21) for the third consecutive year.
By all accounts, Henry should be a full go in 2022 for a Tennessee offense that won’t return star wideout AJ Brown and has invested very little in the running backs behind its workhorse starter. Another league-leading effort from Henry – which seems plausible given his production in each of the last three seasons – would make him a tough out in this market.
Baker Mayfield QB, Panthers (+800)
If you’re only betting on one quarterback in this field, make it Mayfield, who’s been dragged through the mud since the Browns dumped him for a late pick earlier this summer.
Sure, the former no. 1 pick struggled to live up to expectations in four years in Cleveland, but the Panthers’ presumptive starter is surrounded by dynamic skill-position stars in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore – arguably the best RB-WR duo he’s had in his pro career. He’s also coming off by far the worst season of his career, which is a boon in this market.
The Panthers should surprise this year thanks to their elite young talent on defense and competent QB play that was simply missing a year ago. If Mayfield leads the charge for one of the NFL’s breakout teams and rebuilds his own image in the process, he’d fit the perfect archetype for the “performance” comeback that we’ve seen win in years past.
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Danielle Hunter, DE, Vikings (+4000)
Defensive players face an uphill battle in this market, which has only rewarded that side of the ball five times in 29 seasons and just once in the last 14 years. Those who have won have overcome some significant injuries, to boot.
So has Hunter. The Vikings edge rusher missed the entire 2020 season with a herniated disc in his neck, and he played just seven games in 2021 before a torn pectoral muscle prematurely ended that season, too. Yet he was prolific when he played, recording six sacks last year after a pair of 14.5-sack seasons in 2018 and 2019.
Hunter already has his sights set on breaking Jared Allen’s single-season team record of 22 sacks, which would be a remarkable feat after missing 26 of his last 33 games. Even if he doesn’t reach those lofty heights, a typical season for one of the NFL’s best pass rushers should elevate him into the discussion for this award by the season’s end.
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