We are blessed as football fans because Sunday’s pair of conference championship games is great. We have the best four teams in the league remaining (the Bills were always kind of imposters after Von Miller went down, as we said last week). Let’s enjoy what we have — there is no need for media-driven debates like “Joe Burrow is better than Patrick Mahomes.”
Thanks in part to Mahomes’ ankle injury, Burrow and the Bengals are the belles of the ball. The Bengals went from being 2.5-point underdogs to 1.5-point favorites before Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday. The Bengals are now back down to one-point underdogs — but that still seems like an overcorrection from them being 5.5-point underdogs to the Bills last week.
All four quarterbacks are compelling stories, but there is a good chance these games are won by defense and running games.
We picked the Chiefs and 49ers to go to the Super Bowl when the playoffs started, and there is no reason to change now. Those are our two best bets.
Last week: 2-2 against the spread and 1-1 on best bets. The Jaguars got the backdoor cover with the late field goal and Dak Prescott was terrible. Otherwise, we’re 4-0.
Playoffs: 6-4 against the spread and 3-2 on best bets.
Regular season: 127-139-5 ATS; 26-27-3 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
These teams are both great in the trenches. The Eagles should be able to slow down Nick Bosa and company, and when they can’t, Jalen Hurts can take off running. The 49ers have not done well against quarterback runs — they are tied for 19th in success rate versus all QB runs (50 percent), including the playoffs. Break it down even further and they are 26th in success rate (32.3 percent) against designed scrambles.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles — with one last push from “Playoff Fletch” — have shown they can get to the quarterback without blitzing. They produced the second-highest pressure rate without blitzing during the regular season (36.3 percent), but… Brock Purdy ranks seventh in EPA/DB when pressured without a blitz.
Purdy doesn’t look like a rookie in the pocket, and while he didn’t necessarily play that well against the Cowboys, he didn’t turn the ball over — unlike Prescott. That was the difference in the game. And as far as playing in a tough environment, Purdy passed that test with flying colors in Seattle.
While the Eagles receivers have the edge over the 49ers defensive backs, Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers running backs should have a big day. The Eagles defense gave up 4.6 yards per carry (the 49ers defense, by comparison, allowed 3.4). I also don’t see Philadelphia having any answer for tight end George Kittle.
While the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread at home this season, they also haven’t faced an offensive foursome as talented as McCaffrey, Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Or a play caller as good as Kyle Shanahan, who is on his third quarterback this season. As a road underdog under Shanahan, the 49ers are 19-10 ATS.
Finally, it seems like playing the Cowboys was great preparation for the 49ers, as Dallas is similar to Philadelphia with the exception of the receiver depth.
The pick: 49ers +2.5
George Kittle will help send the 49ers back to the Super Bowl. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Now, I totally get why the public is betting on the Bengals. Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs. The Chiefs like to blitz and Burrow smokes like he does cigars. Overall, Burrow and the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in the playoffs the last two years.
Oh, and in his three games against the Chiefs, Ja’Marr Chase has 25 catches (on 29 targets) for 417 yards and four touchdowns. And the Bengals’ use of him against the Bills was a master class.
The Bengals are also hot defensively, and coordinator Lou Anarumo has done a nice job of mixing it up against Mahomes in the past. After dropping eight in coverage on 18 of Mahomes’ dropbacks in last year’s AFC Championship Game, the Bengals did so just five times when they played Kansas City in the 2022 regular season. Mahomes was 1-for-4 for 6 yards with a sack on those dropbacks.
Will Anarumo do that again, with Mahomes playing on a bad ankle? Mahomes might be easier to get to now. Just 11.4 percent of Mahomes’ pressured dropbacks this season have resulted in sacks — the lowest pressure-to-sack rate among 34 qualified QBs.
One thing people aren’t taking into account: The Chiefs’ offensive line is much better than it used to be. Even after Mahomes was injured and came back in the game last week, he wasn’t sacked once. And Andy Reid was fine scheming things up without Tyreek Hill this season, and he has a plan for Sunday night.
The Bengals offensive line, on the other hand, is missing a lot of guys and while the Bills weren’t able to take advantage of that last week, I have faith in Chris Jones and Frank Clark to do some damage. Jones has proven to be a big-game playmaker in the Chiefs’ run to five straight AFC title games, and a lot of times in the past couple of years, that has meant setting up Clark for the sack.
Finally, let’s go back to those Bengals wins over the Chiefs. Kansas City was ahead by 18, 14 and seven points in those three games and never trailed entering the fourth quarter. They are going to be locked in until the end this time, and part of that is because each player knows he has to do more to help out a hobbling Mahomes. Mahomes, in turn, will rely more on his strong arm than his feet and I am cool with that, too. Mahomes is the Michael Jordan of the NFL and I have no interest in going against him, especially laying only one point at home.
In fact, home underdogs — which the Chiefs were from Monday until Thursday — are 8-3-2 against the spread in the past 10 postseasons, per Bet Labs. I don’t think them now being one-point favorites changes that logic. So, if you don’t want to listen to me, don’t turn your back on history.
The pick: Chiefs -1
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.
(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic; photo of Chris Jones: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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