Ouch. Not the kind of week we were looking for, as we saw a reverse sweep. If you’re an optimist, two plays had a market agreement on key numbers. But the Patriots were just terrible, Tua Tagovailoa played his worst game of the year, and we still had a shot in the waning minutes, and the New York Jets were a dropped touchdown pass away from having a lead late in their game. Oh well. That’s the NFL for you. You win some, and you lose some. Luckily, we have more bets to get back on track this week.
Last week’s record: 0-3, -3.30 units
Season record: 34-30-3, -0.32 units, -0.4%
Another small card, but that’s the theme later in the NFL season. Subjectively, I like two of the plays, while one will be a sweat for the entire 60 minutes. Let’s get to it.
There isn’t much to say here, but I think this line is slightly inflated because the Eagles crushed the Titans last week. I think this should be closer to six, and while I don’t like betting on a below-average team — yes, the Giants are below average — against one of the best teams in the league, this is a bit much. Ten of the Giants’ twelve games this year have been decided by one score; let’s hope we make it eleven.
Worst line to bet: Giants +7 -115
I don’t get this line. Sure, the Panthers have won two out of three, but Atlanta and Denver are much worse than Seattle, and I only have to lay 3.5 here? The Seahawks defense is something to worry about, but Geno Smith and this offense should have enough firepower to cover this number as I make this game closer to six.
Worst line to bet: Seahawks -4 -110 (to win 1 unit)
Admittedly, I don’t love this pick, but the Dolphins defense isn’t very good — Brock Purdy had his way with them last week — and the Miami D faces a much more dangerous foe with Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense. Last week, the Chargers were down Corey Linsley and Trey Pipkins, and while their status is uncertain for this week, I’m willing to get ahead of the injury news and place a bet now. Since there is uncertainty, though, I’ll reduce some risk. The Chargers should have enough success on offense to stay in this game.
Worst line to bet: Chargers +3 -110
(Photo of Geno Smith: Harry How / Getty Images)
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