Bills vs. Dolphins (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Week 3 is approaching kickoff Sunday, and the betting lines are moving. More underdogs are looking to bite and provide underdog bettors added bonus of moneyline bets beyond just against the spread (ATS) betting. But a majority of NFL public bettors still prefer to watch and wager on the favorites and the teams on top, and bet against the ‘bad’ teams.
This week, the public is heavy on the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles, Bills and Bengals.
BetMGM is also reporting that the most bet teams in Week 3 are the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Bengals, all as road favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to pass as Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle … [+]
Kansas City at Indianapolis
And Caesars Sportsbook notes the undefeated Chiefs (-5.5) have taken the most spread bets in their Week 3 game at Indianapolis against the winless Colts.
The betting line was as high as Chiefs -7 earlier this week, but now Kansas City is a 5.5-point road favorite. That’s despite the Chiefs receiving over twice as much money (handling) against the spread as any other team playing in Sunday’s Week 3 games.
“This will definitely be one of our biggest decisions this week, if not the biggest,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “The public has seen the Chiefs look good and the Colts look bad, so they’ve been all over the Chiefs.”
Some major comebacks and upsets last week provided more thrilling finishes in the NFL including the Jets 31-30 win over the Browns and overcoming a 13-point deficit in the final two minutes. The Cardinals rallied from a 23-7 fourth quarter deficit in Las Vegas to stun the Raiders in overtime, 29-23. And the Dolphins 42-38 win over the Ravens in Baltimore included a remarkable fourth quarter comeback from a 35-14 deficit.
Buffalo at Miami
Now it’s Buffalo at Miami in Week 3 in a first place showdown in the AFC East. I provide a Bills-Dolphins preview for sports betting news site TheLines, and add other NFL game previews. That includes odds, stats, match-ups, sides, totals and prop bets to consider.
In addition, sports betting contact and respected handicapper Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports sent over some additional stats and info along with against the spread (ATS) data which includes an 87-23 ATS (79%) situation supporting Miami at home as a good offense at home playing a stronger defensive team. Also, teams that have scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games, as the Bills have, are just 19-55 ATS since 1980.
The Dolphins were a recommended play at +6, and a reduced wager with the line down to +5. The Bills are now down to a -4.5 point favorite at leading sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings, despite taking more bets and public money. Respected bettors and money have come in on the Dolphins.
Types of bets and how to read the odds
Additional Bills-Dolphins game insights from Dr. Bob includes:
- Miami’s offense is off to a flying start with the wide receivers giving defenses all sorts of problems to solve. Tyreek Hill (284 yards) and Jalen Waddle (240 yards) currently rank first and third in receiving yards, respectively.
- Waddle gained 73 receiving yards on go routes last Sunday which was more than he did last season (43). Hill gained 108 receiving yards on go routes in week 2, which was 76% of his 2021 go route yardage (147) in one game. Waddle has 116 yards after the catch this season (2nd) and Hill has 104 yards after the catch (3rd).
- Buffalo’s defense leads the league with a 93% zone rate, but it only works because of the two All-Pro safeties covering for inexperienced cornerbacks. However, Micah Hyde (neck) and Jordan Poyer (foot) are banged-up which could prove disastrous results against the speed of the Dolphins. Furthermore, starting CB Dane Jackson (neck) will now join starting CB Tre’Davious White on the sidelines, which leaves the Bills with two rookie cornerbacks against Hill and Waddle.
- Miami’s new offensive left tackle Terron Armstead has allowed just three quarterback pressures on 88 pass-blocking snaps this year.
- Josh Allen is averaging 8.4 yards per pass play. Stefon Diggs is off a 12 catch, 142 yards and 3 TD performance last Monday night in a 41-7 Bills blowout of the Titans. However, Diggs gained just 6.7 yards per target in two games against the Dolphins last season in large part due to Miami Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard.
Follow the NFL Week 3 injury reports, and check out additional NFL Week 3 underdog picks from a proven pro. The sportsbooks are counting on more underdogs to pull off the upsets over the public’s top picks on the favorites.
You can bet on it.
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