Next Gen Matchup Advantage – Week 5 NFL mismatches to exploit

The rookie receivers keep impressing in the advanced metrics.

Each week here in the Next Gen Advantage space we’ve been diving deep into the numbers to look for small edges for your fantasy team. And it feels like almost every week, we’ve seen something that pops off the screen for a rookie wideout.

This week is no different, we’re highlighting three rookie receivers for two different reasons.

The lesson: don’t sleep on the rookie wideouts to be impact players for your fantasy team right now. Whether it’s making start/sit decisions or making a deal to grab one, the rookies are here to stay.

We’re looking at receivers via two different lenses using ESPN metrics that use NFL Next Gen Stats data today: Open Scores and route profiles. Let’s dive in.

Route Profiles

With four weeks of data in the bank, receiver’s route profiles are really starting to take shape. The idea here is that each route has an expected yards per route run value associated with it, based on league averages. And the range is fairly large. Go routes average less than a yard per route run, while deep crosses average over three yards. Add up receivers’ tendencies overall and we can see that some wideouts are more likely to rack up yards than others before we even begin to consider how good they or their quarterbacks are.

Four weeks into the season, here are the leaders in expected yards per route run based on the routes a receiver runs and assuming league average coverage type rates from the opponent.

Let’s dive into a couple of names that stand out from this list.

Romeo Doubts, Green Bay Packers

If you read last week’s column, you might recall Doubs was the headliner. So why am I writing about him again? That was Open Score love. This is route profile love. They’re different, but both good. It’s all coming up favorable for Doubts, so I’m fully buying in at this point.

As you can see from this chart, there are no extremes in Doubs’ profile, but directionally he’s strong almost across the board. He runs more of the efficient routes like digs, slants and deep fades than the average wide receiver, and fewer flats and hitches. Sure, there’s a healthy dose of go routes but it’s offset but the strong usage at the top of the chart.

Romeo Doubs: doesn’t run any one route a ton relative to average, but runs almost all the more productive routes a bit above average.https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1577387008779030534?s=20&t=FQbkAy7hTWfYiYBuXn8iDg

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 2, 2022

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel’s position at the top of the chart above is almost entirely due to screens. Screens are technically the most productive route you can run, but it’s kind of apples and oranges with every other route because the target is a virtual given for screens, whereas other routes require players to earn targets. In the first couple of weeks I ignored Samuel for this reason: his route profile was exceptionally strong – and better than last year – because of screens. But four weeks in, I think this could be something.

Samuel ran just 19 screen routes last season, but he’s already run 11 this year. This just raises Samuel’s target floor in any given week and is a positive sign going forward.

Devin DuVernay, Baltimore Ravens

You’re either in a pretty deep league or you’re in quite a bit of trouble if you’re starting Duvernay right now, even with a nice beginning to his season. He’s caught all but one target thrown his way this year which hardly seems sustainable – and he’s not getting that many targets to begin with.

But! There’s one part of his game that absolutely caught my eye and that is his route profile. He’s running more deep crosses and digs, traded go routes for deep fades and is running slightly more posts than last year. And the result is that he actually has one of the most favorable route profiles in the league.

Is it enough to justify him as a fantasy option? He’s an upside stash in a deeper league if I’ve got the roster spot. But whether he’s on my team or not I’m keeping an eye out here.

Open Scores

We released Open Score last week – as part of a new suite of Receiver Tracking Metrics that use player tracking data to break down receivers by attributes of their game in 0-99 scores.

Open Score determines a player’s ability to get open on targets and non-targets, accounting for factors such as the route a receiver ran, the coverage he faced, leverage, and quarterback ability. A full explainer can be found here. We mentioned Doubs last week for standing out in Open Score last week and he was a drop in the end zone away from a monster game in Week 4. This week, two more rookie wideouts have popped in Open Score and are nearing the top 10.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Open Score: 70

Rank: T-15th

You’ll notice that Wilson made the top of the route profile list above, too, so the arrow is pointing up for the Jets’ rookie wideout.

It’s no highlight reel play, but I love this example of Wilson getting open even in dot form. You can see him make a cut against the direction you might expect to generate just enough separation to make him open if the ball is on time, which it was. A modest six-yard gain, sure. But a sign of things to come.

It’s also a nice example of how Open Score works. Wilson didn’t generate a ton of literal separation on that play but it was enough and the defender was behind him while the ball was coming in front of Wilson. He created the openness on that play, and Open Score recognized as such.

A trickier question for Wilson will be whether Zach Wilson is the quarterback that gets his production numbers up. That’s the only real hurdle I’m worried about for Garrett Wilson at this point. But it also means Garrett Wilson is someone I’m targeting in dynasty leagues, knowing that he’ll likely have better QB play than Joe Flacco – whether it’s Zach Wilson or someone else – in the long term.

Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans

Open Score: 70

Rank: T-15th

This one lost its luster when Burks went down with turf toe, but we’re taking the wider lens view here. And there are positive signs for Burks, as well. He, too, is getting open. This is just a simple but indicative example, against man coverage, where Burks puts a move on the corner marking him and is as wide open as a receiver can get early in a red zone play.

Like with Wilson, there are other reasons to be wary of Burks in the short-term, such as will Tennessee pass enough to sustain real yardage totals? That’s not accounted for here, of course. But also like Wilson, if you’re betting on traits in dynasty, Burks is showing them off.

Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.

NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players’ shoulder pads, charting individual movements, within inches.