If I’m betting on a receiver, I’d like to pick the guy who gets open.
So, who is that?
We’ve previously been able to infer who gets open via stats like target rate. Separation at the time of ball arrival is somewhat useful too but comes with significant flaws — it’s heavily impacted by factors like depth, coverage type, whether the ball was underthrown, route type, etc.
Enter: Open Score.
A new metric from ESPN Analytics based on player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats. The full methodology can be explained by its creator, ESPN Sports Data Scientist Brian Burke, here. But the abridged version is this: The idea is to isolate a receiver’s ability as much as possible and to quantify his openness on all routes — targeted or not — while considering factors such as the route the receiver is running, the coverage he is facing, defender positioning, leverage, ball placement and QB skill, among others.
It’s actually part of a new suite of receiver tracking metrics that also includes Catch Score and YAC Score, but I want to primarily focus on Open Score today. That’s because it’s the most stable metric of the three so there’s the most likely signal there, and it’s also the most important. Receptions and YAC are both somewhat contingent on targets, which are at least partially determined by a receiver’s ability to get open.
Now these metrics have quite a bit of variance within them, so we’ll often be looking at them on a season or multi-season level. But, still, it’s Week 4 so let’s work with what we’ve got in 2022, right? I think as long as we understand there’s noise in these numbers, they can still be quite useful.
I couldn’t wait to check out which receivers have been getting open — and not! — even over a three-game sample. So that’s what we’re focusing on today in the Next Gen Advantage. For starters, here’s the top 20 (well, 21) players in Open Score through three weeks.
I don’t think we’re breaking any news to say Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been getting open. But there are some definite takeaways here, especially for younger players. Let’s dive in!
Good sign: WR Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’re looking at Jones’ box score stats and seeing over six receptions per game in the first three weeks of the season and wondering if there’s something there, his 81 Open Score suggests there really might be! The fact that it’s Jones’ openness that appears to drive his production is what gives me confidence: Open Score is the most stable of our new metrics, so it from a predictive standpoint I’d rather see a high Open Score and mediocre Catch Score ( as is the case for Jones) than the opposite.
And what’s nice about Open Score is that it’s tracking openness on targets and non-targets. So while Jones has been getting open for his targets, we can see there was actually an opportunity for even more. Check out this play from the Jaguars’ Week 1 contest against the Commanders as an example.
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Zay Jones (7) open deep but untargeted in Week 1
So, yes, I’m buying in on Zay Jones.
Good sign: WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
This is a small sample within a small sample, because Doubs hasn’t run as many routes as most of the other players on our leaderboard above. But! What we have seen has been encouraging. Doubs’ Open Score of 76 is not only the best among all rookies, but it’s tied for ninth-best among all qualifiers.
Like with Jones, it’s not just getting open on plays where Doubs eventually earned a target. Here’s an example against the Bears where Doubt was open on a play that Aaron Rodgers eventually took a sack.
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Romeo Doubs (87) opened a route over the middle but was untargeted against the Bears on a play where Aaron Rodgers was sacked. Video by Seth Walder
Bad sign: WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
On the other end of the spectrum for rookie receivers is Dotson, who through three games has the worst Open Score among all qualifiers — a 21. While he recorded 59 receiving yards on four receptions in Week 2 and that might have garnered some optimism, this is the kind of number that absolutely has me fading Dotson — in deep redraft leagues or DFS or props — until we see otherwise.
Examples of a receiver being smothered and not getting a target aren’t the most exciting, but I do want to show one here to demonstrate the negative of what the model is seeing. In this case Dotson (1) is totally locked up by Jeff Okudah. Open Score on non-targets is only measured at 0.2 seconds prior to the pass attempt.
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Jahan Dotson (1) covered closely by Jeff Okudah. Dotson has the worst Open Score through three weeks of any qualifying receiver.
Of course, Open Score is an accumulation of many plays, but that’s why it’s a concern: There’s a pattern of Dotson not getting open, at least through three games.
Speaking of rookies with poor Open Scores: George Pickens is tied for the second-worst Open Score of any receiver, only behind Dotson. It’s the second time we’ve mentioned Pickens in a bad way in this space (last week we mentioned the Steelers had him running inefficient routes). Crazy catches aside, it’s another reason to be wary of Pickens at least for now.
Bad sign: WR DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
Moore’s an established star and someone I really liked in the preseason, but his Open Score (42) is a cause for concern even beyond his lack of production — seven receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown — through three games. If Moore were a contested catch specialist like Terry McLaurin or Allen Robinson II, I’d be less worried. But we can see through Moore’s historical numbers his Open Score has dropped off. Here are his Open Scores by season.
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2018: 46
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2019: 65
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2020: 55
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2021: 77
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2022: 42
Maybe it’s noise, but maybe it’s not. If Moore is failing to get open, that will limit his opportunity in an already limited Carolina offense. And I don’t think we should expect Moore to be able to make up for a lack of openness with a super high catch rate above expectation; his Catch Scores in 2020 and 2021 were just 28 and 34, respectively.
Good sign: WR Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers and WR Elijah Moore, New York Jets
I’m grouping these two together because it’s the same story with each: Second-year receivers who have posted strong Open Scores through three games — they are tied at 69. And each has been average in Catch Score. It’s a reason to maintain some optimism for each: It’s a sign that Palmer’s 99-yard game in Week 3 was not a fluke and that Moore has upside, particularly with the Jets switching quarterbacks back to Zach Wilson. Perhaps Wilson will look Moore’s way when open more than Joe Flacco did.
Fellow Jets receiver Corey Davis has just a 41 Open Score, so Moore looks good by comparison (Garrett Wilson is above average at 61).
Good sign: WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
One thing to know about our receiver tracking metrics is to consider the skill of the quarterback and try to control for it. That plays the largest role in Catch Score, but it is a small factor in Open Score, too. It controls for QB skill on openness at ball arrival when targeted. In fantasy, we have no such luxury — Lockett is stuck with Geno Smith (or Drew Lock) — but it is worth bearing in mind when trying to evaluate the skill of a receiver themselves.
Lockett’s red-hot Open Score start underscores the fact that he has long been one of the most underrated receivers in the league and was not simply a product of Russell Wilson. Even with Smith or Lock at QB, this should give fantasy managers a little more confidence in Lockett going forward.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players’ shoulder pads, charting individual movements, within inches.
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