New York Mets Set All-Time MLB Payroll Record — But Have They Improved?

In an offseason full of large free agent contracts, the exploits of the New York Mets have stood out. After moving into 1st place in all of MLB in team payroll during the 2022 season, the club has kept right on going, blowing past the $300M level and the newly-added Steve Cohen Luxury Tax threshold and landing at $345M, at least as of this writing.

Their aggressive approach the last two winters has had a resounding effect throughout the game. In the NL East, the rival Phillies and Braves have taken two different approaches to keep up with the Mets. The Phils have stepped right up into a spending contest, most recently bringing aboard SS Trea Turner with an 11-year, $300M free agent contract. The Braves have gone about business in a different manner, locking up their youthful core and most recently trading for young All-Star catcher Sean Murphy in a three-team deal with the Athletics and Brewers.

Then there’s the pending cross-town impact on their AL rivals, the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have always been the Goliath of the Big Apple, with the Mets the younger sibling that always got pushed around. The Mets are actively trying to change that dynamic. Both clubs were among the game’s best last season, with the Mets out-winning the Yanks 101 to 99. Although their cross-town rivals have made this offseason’s priciest transaction, retaining Aaron Judge on a 9-year, $360M contract, the rest of the major player movement in NYC this fall has taken place in Queens.

Faced with the departure of ace Jacob deGrom to the Rangers for a five-year, $185M contract, the Mets acted quickly to replace him with AL Cy Young champ Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.7M deal. I liked this development for the Mets, and wrote about it here. They locked up the most important of their remaining free agents, CF Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz on eight-year, $162M and five-year, $102M deals respectively. They fortified their starting rotation by adding former Japanese ace Kodai Senga (five years, $75M) and Jose Quintana (two years, $26M) and added bullpen depth by bringing aboard David Robertson (one year, $10M). And if rumors are to be believed, they’re not done yet, and still in the mix on multiple other free agents.

On one hand, I applaud owner Cohen for his willingness to spend and his commitment to winning. While “tanking” and building for tomorrow have a place, way too many teams – arguably about half of MLB’s 30 clubs – don’t seem to be trying to win at a given point in time, and it’s gotten ridiculous.

On the other, when a club is setting all-time payroll records, I expect to see greatness when I inspect its roster. You know, 1972-74 A’s, 1975-76 Reds, late 1990s Yankees……you get it. Juggernauts, dynasties. I just don’t see greatness when I look at this Met roster – I simply see a contending club in the brutal NL East.

Their payroll has already jumped over $80M since opening day 2022 and will likely jump even higher by April. And where are the improvements? Let’s break down their current offseason spending.

They’ve committed over a quarter-billion dollars to Nimmo and Diaz to keep them in town. Diaz is a closer – albeit a great one – and even the greatest of closers tend to drop off in quality around his current age. Nimmo has exceeded the humble 400 plate appearance threshold exactly twice in his career and will now be paid $20M per season through age 37. Most importantly – they aren’t new acquisitions, and are both coming off of career years. There’s nowhere to go but down.

I’ve already mentioned the Verlander for deGrom “swap”. deGrom is arguably better on a per-inning basis, but Verlander can more easily be relied upon for bulk innings. The main reason I approved of the net impact of these two deals is that the Mets are only on the hook for two years of Verlander, while the Rangers went five years deep with deGrom.

But what about the rest of the rotation? Out go Chris Bassitt (to the Blue Jays) and Taijuan Walker (to the Phillies). In come Senga and Quintana. As with the deGrom/Verlander situation, the Mets saved some bucks as Bassitt got 3 years, $63M and Walker got 4 years, $72M, a net of $34M more than the club paid for same aggregate numbers of years of Senga/Quintana .

Production-wise, however, it is far from certain that this portion of the Mets’ rotation will come out ahead. Bassitt is currently the best pitcher among this group (I’d go Bassitt-Senga-Quintana-Walker in order of quality), and is walking out the door. Senga is the big wild card, with the widest range of potential outcomes moving forward. Some Japanese hurlers, like Hideo Nomo, have had their best seasons immediately after arriving stateside. Such an outcome, however, is far from certain.

Similarly, the bullpen changes at this point in the offseason don’t necessarily add up to improvement. Trevor Williams is out the door to Washington (two years, $13M), where he will likely be a starter in 2023. Setup man Adam Ottavino remains a free agent, and is no lock to return. The Mets have added Robertson (1 year, $10M), and while he has plenty of experience, he lacks the stuff or recent performance pedigree of Williams/Ottavino.

So there we are. Where are the upgrades? There’s a chance Senga is an upgrade, but I’m betting that Bassitt is a better short-term performer. The Mets have pushed their total payroll to a rarified place where no club has ever gone, and aren’t nearly a lock to win 100 games.

How did this happen? Well, remember last offseason, when they added both superstars (Max Scherzer, 3 years, $130M) and non-superstars (Starling Marte, 4 years, $78M, Mark Canha, 2 years, $26.5M, Eduardo Escobar 2 years, $20 Q). Their highest paid player is SS Francisco Lindor, signed in the previous offseason, and his fellow offensive star, 1B Pete Alonso, has not yet signed a long-term deal. The club still owes current backup catcher James McCann $24.3M over the next two seasons.

Bottom line, there’s quite a bit of dead wood, or at least not the very best of wood included in this historic team payroll figure. There aren’t any high-performing, low-paid 0-3 year regulars. C Francisco Alvarez has a chance to be one in the near term, but he is just as likely to be moved in a large deal for veteran help. The team with the highest payroll in history has Tomas Nido catching, Escobar at third, Canha in left, Daniel Vogelbach at DH……..there is still work to be done, and with Carlos Correa headed to the Giants ( 13 years, $350M), that pipe dream is gone.

So let’s be careful when we’re anointing the New York Mets as one of the foremost clubs in baseball. Yes, they will aggressively spend in their pursuit of championships, but they have yet to prove themselves as savvy investors. A couple of things are certain; they will not be boring, and are a clear threat to take over the back page of the New York tabloid sports pages.