Big data, machine learning, and AI all feature in projects designed to ease the winter pressures facing the NHS.
New research launched by Health Data Research (HDR) UK and funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) will use data-driven approaches to pin-point, understand, and alleviate pressures in the health care system.
The sixteen projects range in their data-driven approaches and subject matter, covering issues like ambulance wait times, hospital discharges, and the effect of cold homes on health.
With lessons from the pandemic on how to drive rapid-response research, the projects are aiming for fast results that will have a direct impact on health policy as well as clinical care.
Many of the projects have a focus on common winter issues that increase NHS pressure.
Professor Cathie Sudlow, Chief Scientist at HDR UK – the UK’s institute for health data science, which is delivering the projects – said: “As a doctor who has previously treated patients in the emergency department, I am all too aware of the enormous challenges faced by the healthcare system this winter. It’s critical that we use data quickly, securely and responsibly to support the NHS, its workers, and the patients who rely on it for their care.
“By using existing data, research teams, and infrastructure these projects are able to respond rapidly to evolving pressures on the NHS. Within three months, they will have honed in on key pain points in the health service, and developed evidence-led recommendations on how best to manage resources and prevent unnecessary illness through the winter.
The projects include studies aiming to ease pressures on emergency services by using hospital data to accelerate patient flow through emergency departments, and using ML to predict peaks of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), which causes serious illness in young children.
December 2022 saw a massive spike in RSV among children, with nearly 90% of child clinical care beds full due to the virus.
Other projects will investigate a common but underresearched problem: the impact of cold and damp homes on people’s health.
Already, those most vulnerable will suffer greater health issues in the winter due to cold, damp weather which weakens immune systems causing ‘flu’ season, but the cost-of-living crisis only exacerbates this issue, which eventually piles onto the NHS.
“There isn’t enough emphasis placed on the impact of the health of children and young people on the NHS during winter,” Dr. Martin Chapman of King’s College London, said. He’s part of the team delivering the project to research the impact the rising cost of energy is having on public health and NHS capacity.
“Living in cold, damp and moldy homes leads to chest conditions in children and mental health problems in adolescents, and rising energy costs mean more people than ever are living with heat poverty.
“We’re investigating the effectiveness of interventions like support for energy bills on the health of young people by using Artificial Intelligence to digitally mimic their household environments and evaluate the impact of simulated interventions.
“This will help guide future policy changes to improve health conditions, reduce inequalities, and in turn reduce pressures on NHS services.”
Each project is designed to generate findings in just a few months so solutions can be implemented for future winters.
Projects were selected in December 2022, with studies beginning in January and results expected by the end of March.
The research was made possible in large part thanks to the improved health data infrastructure that was developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, partly led by HDR UK with the support of UKRI and partners across the sector. This enabled access to data faster, more securely, and at a greater scale than ever before.
“Research plays a key role in helping us predict and understand the pressures our health and social care services face,” Dr. Mary De Silva, Deputy Chief Scientific Advisor at the Department for Health and Social Care said.
“Winter is an especially busy time for the NHS, and these projects aim to harness the power of routinely collected healthcare data to understand what is causing the pressures, and crucially to provide new solutions that can be swiftly turned into working practice.”
Several projects, like Professor Elizabeth Sapey’s, will also tackle year-round NHS struggles, such as backlogs faced by emergency care departments which can leave patients in considerable distress while they wait for care.
Recommended
“Our work will involve applying machine learning techniques to highly detailed hospital data from a diverse population to develop a better model to identify patients for Same Day Emergency Care, ultimately reducing inequalities in care and relieving pressure on emergency services,” she said.
The funding for this project is part of the £500 million announced for the discharge fund in the Chancellor’s Autumn statement, which aims to reduce bed occupancy and ambulance handover times to increase social care capacity.
“We are harnessing the spirit of innovation that delivered the COVID vaccine rollout to promote cutting-edge research aimed at tackling the winter pressures on our NHS,” Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay said.
Get all the latest news from DIGIT directly to your inbox
Our newsletter covers the latest technology and IT news from Scotland and beyond, as well as in-depth features and exclusive interviews with leading figures and rising stars.
To subscribe, click here.