After going 3-0 last Thursday, we’re back with a few more player props during tonight’s five-game NBA slate.
NBA on TNT’s doubleheader will feature the Celtics hosting the Warriors for the first time since the NBA Finals last season. After that, it’s the Brooklyn Nets and the Phoenix Suns in a match-up between two teams dealing with injuries.
Here are our best bets for those games – and one more – during Thursday night’s action.
Celtics vs. Warriors (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Jordan Poole under 25.5 points (-109, Caesars Sportsbook)
These two teams come into this game with decent enough health. The Warriors headliners are all expected to play tonight, while only Jaylen Brown of the Celtics is questionable, although he expressed optimism that he’d play on Wednesday.
The Celtics have a rotation full of players that can create their own shot and take advantage of weak defenders, which makes Poole and his suspect defense a terrible matchup against Boston.
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As we saw during the NBA Finals last year, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr knows this. Poole played no more than 25 minutes during six Finals games against the Celtics and during the last two games, Kerr all but moved off of Poole, playing him less than 18 minutes in both of those games.
That, of course, hit his scoring numbers. Poole failed to score more than 17 points in all six Finals games last year, averaging just 13.1 points per game. That disappointing trend seemed to continue into the first matchup between these teams this season, with Poole scoring 20 points on 5-for-16 shooting overall and 1-for-9 shooting from three.
With Steph Curry and Klay Thompson healthy, I don’t see how Poole reaches this number against a full-strength Celtics team.
Nets vs. Suns (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT)
Deandre Ayton over 10.5 rebounds (-108, FanDuel)
Injuries have stolen the sexiness from this would-be marquee matchup, but there’s still one excellent betting angle. The Suns will be without at least Devin Booker, Cam Payne, and possibly Chris Paul, who is questionable with a hip injury. That leaves Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson, who is returning from an injury of his own, to carry the load.
If he comes to play (and as Suns fans know, that’s not always a given), Ayton should thrive on the boards against one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Brooklyn’s 47.8 percent rebounding rate is better than only the Dallas Mavericks and their notoriously small lineup.
And those numbers include when Kevin Durant was healthy. Since Durant left the lineup with a knee injury, the Nets’ rebounding rate is down to 46 percent. Durant, who was averaging 6.7 rebounds per game when he went down, often serves as Brooklyn’s power forward and occasional center when Nic Claxton sits.
Ayton has also seen a slight uptick in playing time since injuries have hit Phoenix’s rotation. He’s averaging a season-high 32.1 minutes per game in January compared to just 28.9 in December.
These offenses haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late with all the injuries as well, so there’ll be plenty of missed shots for Ayton to scoop up.
Betting on the NBA?
Raptors vs. Timberwolves (8:00 p.m.)
Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet 3+ three-pointers made (-140, -190, FanDuel)
It’s been a weird season for the Raptors. Oddsmakers had Toronto’s over/under win total coming into the season at roughly 45.5 wins, depending on the sportsbook. They’re far from reaching that number with a 20-25 record and are currently out of the playoff/play-in picture.
Regardless, there are plenty of gambling opportunities with this still-talented group. The Raptors will face off against the equally disappointing Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, whose lopsided defense should help Toronto’s outside shooters thrive.
Minnesota’s most significant offseason addition, three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, has taken a step back, but he’s still keeping opposing teams from scoring near the basket. The Wolves are allowing opponents to score just 48.1 points in the paint per game, the seventh-fewest in the NBA.
That’s good for Minnesota, if only they weren’t getting torched from the outside. They’re giving up the second-most three-pointers per game (13.6), negating any positive impact Gobert has had inside.
The Raptors aren’t the best three-point shooting team in the league, but they do feature two high-volume snipers in Trent Jr. and VanVleet. Both guards have seen an uptick in their shot volume from deep in the month of January, too, so I like this matchup for the pair.
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