Which NBA stars will take home the hardware in 2022-23?
Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic is the reigning two-time MVP — could a third be on the way? A host of players, including fellow two-time winners Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry, will have something to say about that.
How will the Rookie of the Year race play out? Could the Sacramento Kings’ Keegan Murray parlay his summer league MVP into an ROY, or will one of the top three picks — the Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Chet Holmgren, or the Houston Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr. — take the award?
Is Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert the favorite to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award despite changing teams this offseason?
And who are the top contenders for Coach of the Year, Sixth Man and Most Improved Player?
We asked our panel to rank its top three choices for the NBA’s six major awards — with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.
Here are the results:
Note: Our 2022-23 NBA Summer Forecast will continue Friday with answers to this season’s biggest questions, including the future of Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Donovan Mitchell.
Who will win NBA MVP?
Jokic may have captured the past two MVP awards, but our panel doesn’t like his chances for a three-peat.
Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, has the inside track to win his third award but has some company near the top. Both Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic and Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid are right on his heels in the voting, and Curry comes in fourth with an outside chance to follow his 2022 Finals MVP with the third regular-season award of his Hall of Fame career.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 43 points (33.3% first-place votes)
T-2. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 40 points (22.2%)
T-2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: 40 points (33.3%)
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: 14 points
T-5. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers: 6 points (5.6%)
T-5. Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies: 6 points (5.6%)
T-7. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 4 points
T-7. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 4 points
9. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves: 3 points
T-10. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns: 1 point
T-10. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 1 point
Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?
Banchero was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, but recent history isn’t on his side when it comes to Rookie of the Year voting — the award for best first-year player hasn’t gone to that season’s top pick since Towns in 2016.
Despite that trend, our panel sees the Magic rookie outdueling Holmgren for the award. But don’t sleep on the Kings’ Murray, who impressed during the summer league en route to an MVP in Las Vegas.
1. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic: 60 points (50.0% of first-place votes)
2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 43 points (16.7%)
3. Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons: 20 points (5.6%)
4. Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings: 18 points (11.1%)
5. Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets: 16 points (16.7%)
6. Benedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers: 5 points
Who will win Coach of the Year?
Ime Udoka guided Boston’s second-half transformation before the franchise’s run to the NBA Finals. Our panel sees the Celtics’ second-year coach picking up where he left off.
And as the Clippers rejoin the title conversation thanks to the anticipated return of Leonard, Tyronn Lue has rejoined the list of Coach of the Year front-runners.
Rounding out the top five are three coaches in different stages of their teams’ paths to success.
The Heat’s Erik Spoelstra is a staple in Coach of the Year voting and has Miami perennially in the chase for Eastern Conference supremacy. Jason Kidd is entering Year 2 alongside Doncic as the Mavericks look to take the next step. Willie Green, meanwhile, is hoping to oversee a much-improved season in New Orleans thanks to the return of Zion Williamson and a full season with the addition of CJ McCollum at the trade deadline.
1. Ime Udoka, Boston Celtics: 50 points (38.9% of first-place votes)
2. Tyronn Lue, LA Clippers: 32 points (27.8%)
3. Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat: 16 points (11.1%)
4. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks: 13 points (5.6%)
5. Willie Green, New Orleans Pelicans: 12 points
6. Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves: 10 points (5.6%)
7. Michael Malone, Denver Nuggets: 6 points (5.6%)
T-8. Darvin Ham, Los Angeles Lakers: 5 points (5.6%)
T-8. Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies: 5 points
T-8. Doc Rivers, Philadelphia 76ers: 5 points
Others receiving votes: Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors; Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee Bucks; Monty Williams, Phoenix Suns; Nate McMillan, Atlanta Hawks.
Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?
Gobert, the Timberwolves’ new defensive anchor, is looking to join Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo as the only four-time winners in NBA history.
According to our panel, he’s got the best chance in 2022-23.
Our experts are also predicting that last season — during which Boston’s Marcus Smart became the first guard since Gary Payton in 1996 to win — was a brief respite from the bigs’ traditional stranglehold on the award.
1. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 43 points (27.8% first-place votes)
2. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat: 29 points (27.8%)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 21 points (5.6%)
4. Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns: 19 points (16.7%)
5. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors: 10 points (5.6%)
T-6. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics: 9 points (5.6%)
T-6. Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics: 9 points
8. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: 8 points (5.6%)
9. Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets: 6 points (5.6%)
10. Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks: 4 points
Others receiving votes: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers; Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers.
Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?
OK, this might be a little unfair.
Jordan Poole started 51 games last season for the champion Warriors, but with Klay Thompson ready for opening night after not making his 2021-22 debut until Jan. 9, Poole becomes a full-time supersub for one of the deepest teams in the league.
In the East, Boston’s offseason trade for Malcolm Brogdon added some intrigue to his year’s race. Brogdon slides in as the first guard off the bench for a team expected to contend for the conference’s top seed.
Tyler Herro, meanwhile, checks in fourth on this list, as our panel doesn’t like his chances for a repeat performance.
1. Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors: 77 points (77.8% of first-place votes)
2. Malcolm Brogdon, Boston Celtics: 22 points (16.7%)
3. John Wall, LA Clippers: 15 points (5.6%)
4. Tyler Herro, Miami Heat: 13 points
5. Cam Johnson, Phoenix Suns: 9 points
6. Spencer Dinwiddie, Dallas Mavericks: 6 points
7. Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks: 5 points
8. Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls: 4 points
T-9. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers: 3 points
T-9. Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies: 3 points
Others receiving votes: Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz; Bones Hyland, Denver Nuggets; Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers.
Who will win Most Improved Player?
Budding actor? Check.
Fearless dunker? Absolutely.
Most Improved Player? He’s got our vote.
Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards leads a group of young players looking to take the leap in 2022-23.
1. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 32 points (22.2% of first-place votes)
2. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers: 24 points (22.2%)
3. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks: 22 points (16.7%)
4. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets: 20 points (11.1%)
5. Kevin Porter Jr., Houston Rockets: 15 points (5.6%)
T-6. LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets: 9 points (5.6%)
T-6. Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks: 9 points (5.6%)
8. Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers: 8 points
T-9. RJ Barrett, New York Knicks: 6 points (5.6%)
T-9. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers: 6 points (5.6%)
T-9. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 6 points
Others receiving votes: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons.
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