It’s roughly the one-third point of the NBA season, and it’s never too early to start looking at the playoff picture. Almost half of the league, arguably, is on the playoff bubble — PointsBet has 14 teams with between +500 and -500 odds to make it to the final eight of their respective conference.
A lot can change, but there’s value to be had. Here’s a look at a few of our favorite NBA playoff picks.
NBA playoff picture picks and predictions
Atlanta Hawks to miss the playoffs (+300, PointsBet)
The Hawks have star power, but they haven’t played like the likely-playoff team the oddsmakers have them as. Atlanta is 14-15, sitting in the 9th spot of the Eastern Conference, and they’re lucky to be hovering around .500. They sit at 23rd in Net Rating (-1.8) and the bottom half of the league in both Offensive and Defensive Rating.
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They’ve played even worse of late. Like one of the worst teams in the NBA, in fact. The Hawks rank 27th in the league in terms of Net Rating over their last 15 games — ahead of only the Magic, Hornets, and Spurs — teams far out of the playoff picture. It won’t get any easier anytime soon, too, as DeJounte Murray is out for at least two weeks with an ankle injury.
The drama surrounding the team, perhaps, has something to do with their misfortune on the court recently. Head coach Nate McMillan and star point guard Trae Young reportedly had an exchange that resulted in Young not playing and not showing up at State Farm Arena for the Hawks’ game against the Denver Nuggets on Dec. 2, leading to questions about McMillan’s job security and Young’s leadership skills.
At least two teams out of the Knicks, Pacers, Raptors, Heat, and Hawks are likely to miss the playoffs. I’ll be betting on the team at 3/1 odds, with question marks surrounding the locker room.
Utah Jazz to make the playoffs (+215, PointsBet)
Vegas still doesn’t believe in the Utah Jazz, but we do. Coming into the year, Utah was expected to be a part of the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.
They’ve borderline already played themselves out of it.
The Jazz have rocketed out to a 16-14 start despite trading away All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert before the season. They rank 8th in the NBA in Net Rating, largely thanks to a high-powered offense. The Jazz are a top-ten team in terms of Effective Field Goal percentage, True Shooting percentage, three-point percentage, assist rate, and offensive efficiency. They look for real.
They are a team of professionals, led by players like Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, and Collin Sexton. But the emergence of Lauri Markkanen, who is an All-Star and most improved player candidate, has taken them to the next level. The 25-year-old is averaging 22.1 points and 8.6 rebounds on 52.7 percent shooting so far this season.
Oh, and they also have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the West, according to Tankathon.com. As long as Danny Ainge and the Jazz front office don’t decide to sell off, this team will stay in the crowded playoff hunt. At +215, they are as good a bet as anyone to sneak in at the bottom of the West.
Minnesota Timberwolves to miss the playoffs (-160, PointsBet)
The Wolves are a complete mess, making this a must-bet even at negative odds.
After making it through the play-in round and taking the Memphis Grizzlies to six games during the first round last season, and trading for three-time defensive player of the year award winner Rudy Gobert during the offseason, Minnesota had high expectations coming into the year.
It hasn’t gone according to plan. The Wolves are 13-14 and wouldn’t even make the play-in tournament if the season ended today. Somehow, their defensive rating is actually worse this season (112.1) compared to last season (111.0) despite adding one of the best defenders of all time in Gobert. Injuries haven’t helped, either. Karl-Anthony Towns has been out since late November with a calf strain and is expected to miss two to four more weeks.
There are just better playoff-caliber teams in the Western Conference this season. The aforementioned Jazz and Kings have been surprisingly competitive. The Trailblazers retooled and are right in the race. Even the Lakers, who are just 1.5 games behind the Wolves, have shown signs of life of late. This team just isn’t meshing, and time is running out if they want to make a run.
Betting on the NBA?
New York Knicks to make the playoffs (+165, PointsBet)
I was surprised to see the Knicks at this high of odds, given the state of the Eastern Conference. As mentioned, five teams are battling for the final three spots in the East at the moment, barring a Chicago Bulls resurgence (doubtful).
Despite an up-and-down start, the Knicks appear to be at the top of that group. Currently, on a five-game winning streak, New York ranks 13th in Net Rating (1.0) thanks to a slightly above-average offense and defense. They are alone as the sixth seed in the East thanks to a current five-game winning streak.
Jalen Brunson looks like every bit of the player he showed himself to be during the Mavericks’ postseason run last year. The point guard is averaging career-highs in both points (20.4) and assists (6.3) as the main driver of the team’s offense. The Knicks are also enjoying a rebound campaign from Julius Randle, who is averaging more points and shooting at a higher rate this year while handing over distributing duties to Brunson.
The Knicks are about as average of a team as it gets, but average will get you into the playoffs in an Eastern Conference that lacks firepower in its middle-class teams.
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