The Minnesota Timberwolves (13-13) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (14-12) on Monday. Action tips off at 10:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Timberwolves-Blazers prediction and pick.
Minnesota has won two of their last three games but still sits in tenth place in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are 10-16 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone under. Portland has won three of their last four games to propel them to sixth in the West. The Trail Blazers are 17-9 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. Portland took the first game on Saturday: 124-118.
Here are the Timberwolves-Blazers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Blazers Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +4 (-110)
Portland Trail Blazers: -4 (-110)
Over: 230 (-110)
Under: 230 (-110)
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota has had an up-and-down season but has largely underperformed after high preseason expectations. The Wolves have been solid on offense, ranking ninth in scoring and 17th in offensive rating. They struggle somewhat on defense, however, as they rank 23rd in points allowed and 15th in defensive rating. Their biggest weakness lies on the glass where they rank 22nd in rebound differential and 24th in rebound rate.
With Karl-Anthony Towns injured, the Wolves had to rely on wing Anthony Edwards to carry the load offensively. Edwards hasn’t taken the leap many expected him to before the season, but he’s been stellar nonetheless. For the season, Edwards averages 22.9 PPG and 5.7 RPG while shooting 46% from the field. He’s continued to develop as a playmaker, averaging 4.0 APG. Edwards is still developing as an outside shooter but takes enough of them that he keeps opposing defenses honest (2.5 3PM on 35%). Despite their loss to Portland on Saturday, Edwards shined. He scored 26 points, dished out seven assists, and pulled down six rebounds. His strong play of late and ability to take over games is worth keeping in mind before making a Timberwolves-Blazers prediction.
While Edwards has been the focal point with KAT out, point guard D’Angelo Russell has slowly rounded into form especially lately. Over his last nine games, Russell has averaged 21.2 PPG and 6.4 APG while shooting 53% from the field. He’s scored 24 points in each of his last four games – including a 24-point performance against the Trail Blazers in which he made four of five threes. The Blazers already proved they don’t have an answer for him but he’ll need to continue his recent strong play if the Timberwolves want to cover.
Why The Trail Blazers Could Cover The Spread
Portland has cooled off since its blazing start, but they remain firmly in the playoff picture. Portland is a strong two-way team that excels on offense. The Trail Blazers rank 19th in scoring and 11th in offensive rating. They’re solid on defense, ranking 11th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive rating. The Blazers excel on the glass as they rank ninth in rebound differential and 11th in rebound rate. Notably, wing Josh Hart is probable for tonight’s matchup while Gary Payton II remains out.
The Trail Blazers have continued to defy preseason expectations thanks to their “big three” of Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, and Jerami Grant. Lillard leads the team in scoring, averaging 27.6 PPG. He continues to be an underrated playmaker with a team-high 7.4 APG. While Dame hasn’t shot particularly well this season (43% from the field and 36% from three) he’s a dangerous scorer who more than keeps opposing defenses honest from deep. Lillard torched the Timberwolves in their matchup on Saturday – scoring 36 points and dishing eight assists. His recent success against Minnesota is something to keep in mind when making a Timberwolves-Blazers prediction.
While Lillard is the top dog, Simons and Grant have been quietly putting up All-Star caliber numbers in their own right. Simons ranks second on the team in scoring with 24.2 PPG. Grant is right behind him averaging 22.5 PPG. Simons contributes as a playmaker (4.4 APG) while Grant chips in on the glass (4.2 RPG). Both players have been efficient, shooting over 44% from the field, but it is their efficiency from beyond the arc which really supports Portland’s coverage tonight. Simons averages over four threes per game while shooting 39% from three. Those are great numbers, for sure, but Grant’s shooting is what’s really impressive. The forward is shooting 45% from beyond the arc while averaging 2.8 made threes per game. The two combined for 48 points in their win on Saturday and project to have another strong showing tonight.
Final Timberwolves-Blazers Prediction & Pick
Portland dispatched Minnesota at home on Saturday and I don’t see much changing tonight. The Wolves just don’t have the personnel to slow down the Blazers’ scorching offense.
Final Timberwolves-Blazers Prediction & Pick: Portland Trail Blazers -4 (-110)
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