Lately, the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award has not seen many challengers. Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo have won two trophies apiece over the past four seasons, and Joel Embiid has been the runner-up in back-to-back years.
Still, with so many high-level superstars in the league currently, many could challenge the usual suspects at the top. We’re highlighting our three best bets to take home the award at the end of the regular season.
Favorite Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+650)
Antetokounmpo is as sure a bet as anyone to finish near the top of the MVP leaderboard. Since winning the award back-to-back times in 2019 and 2020, the Greek Freak has finished fourth and third in the last two seasons.
After missing a handful of games last year and seeing the Bucks drop a few places in the Eastern Conference standings, Antetokounmpo should be back strong. He’s averaged at least 27 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game in each of the last five years and has done so on a Milwaukee team that was a top-three seed in all but one of those campaigns.
Simply put, Antetokounmpo is a sure thing in a list of front-runner candidates that raise questions. Luka Doncic is the odds-on favorite but has never finished higher than fifth in voting. Embiid didn’t win last year despite leading the league in scoring. Jokic is unlikely to win the award for a rare third straight time, especially with the Nuggets getting reinforcements. When placing a bet on a favorite, siding with Antetokounmpo is the most logical pick.
Value Bet: Kawhi Leonard (+2200)
Despite never winning the league’s top individual award, Leonard has finished in the top five three separate times. One of those instances was two seasons ago – his first with the Clippers – and a similar-type campaign could be in order.
His first two seasons in Los Angeles marked the two best offensive campaigns of his career. He averaged a personal-best 27.1 points per game in his first go-around, and he shot 51.2% from the field in his second, his best mark as a lead option. Leonard also averaged at least 6.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists in those seasons.
The biggest drawback against Leonard is his injury status after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. However, he’s come back from a near full-season absence before and still missed 15 games the last time he was in the MVP race. Should he return to his old self and push the championship-contending Clippers to a high seed after a 42-40 record last year, Leonard will be in the award conversation, and he has only the ninth-best odds.
Longshot Bet: Donovan Mitchell (+7500)
MVP candidates don’t usually come out of nowhere, and even though Mitchell has been an All-Star the last three seasons, he’s never been in the top 10 of MVP voting. Despite this, Mitchell’s new situation with the Cavaliers may finally allow him to break through.
While Mitchell joins young stars Darius Garland and Evan Mobley on the Cavaliers, neither are effective as high-volume scorers. Garland’s elite point guard skills and Mobley’s top-tier defense should allow Mitchell to focus on being a scorer as well as a secondary playmaker. As a result, Mitchell’s offensive output should match or surpass the 25.9 points per game he averaged last season, good for ninth-best in the league.
In addition to that, Mitchell will look to be the key piece in the Cavaliers completing a two-year journey from rebuilding to the playoffs. While Cleveland finished with a decent 44 wins last season, a vault into the 50s would look favorable on Mitchell. While he shouldn’t be seen as a top contender for the award, at his super-low price tag, it could be worth throwing a small wager on “Spida.”