Which team is being slept on? Which team will take the biggest leap? And which team will take the biggest slide? The full results from an anonymous survey of 21 NBA team general managers, scouts and coaches.
The NBA season tips off Tuesday after an off-season of drama, and from the looks of it, that drama may spill over into the regular season itself.
In our pre-season survey of 21 GMs, scouts and coaches about the upcoming year, a few players and teams at the center of those off-season headlines clearly remain front of mind. From Kevin Durant potentially re-upping his currently-rescinded trade request to the Lakers melting down around a highly combustible group, the NBA is bracing for waves.
But beyond those fireworks, we asked about sleepers, the best all-around player in the league, rookies to watch and who will win it all. Take a look at the results.
Which team is being slept on entering the year?
1. Pelicans, Nets, Raptors, Nuggets (3 votes each)
5. Clippers, Kings (2 votes each)
Others receiving one vote each: 76ers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Rockets.
There was no consensus on which team was being overlooked the most, with four teams splitting the top vote. The Pelicans, who also appear as a boom-or-bust team on this list, have people intrigued with a not-so-secret weapon returning this season.
“Zion [Williamson] will be a top-10 player in the league this year,” said a Western Conference assistant coach.
The Raptors, NBA champions just three years ago but still working their way back, also have people taking note.
“Toronto is always consistently better than expected and Scottie Barnes is going to be a factor,” a Western Conference scout said.
The Clippers were just outside the top-four, but one Western Conference head coach is bullish on them.
“I don’t think people are talking about them enough. They haven’t had their whole team together and still went pretty far in the playoffs,” he said. “They are deep, versatile, can shoot and have a coach who has championship experience. You go across the board and they have everything you need — if they stay healthy.”
Which team has the biggest boom-or-bust potential?
1. Nets (9 votes)
2. Lakers (4 votes)
3. Pelicans, Clippers (2 votes each)
Others receiving one vote each: Blazers, Grizzlies, Heat
The drama-laden Nets are, as always, turning heads, garnering the most votes.
“They are loaded,” an Eastern Conference coach said. “Their whole thing is chemistry.”
The similarly drama-laden Lakers came in second.
“Russell Westbrook, [Patrick Beverley] and Dennis Schröder together is oil and vinegar and oil,” an Eastern Conference scout said. “Poor Darwin [Ham, the team’s coach]. He’s got to walk in, cater to LeBron, pump up [Anthony Davis] and get him to play when he doesn’t feel good, all on a team that isn’t very deep.”
Which team will make the biggest leap?
1. Clippers, Pelicans (5 votes each)
3. Cavaliers (4 votes)
4. Rockets (2 votes)
Others receiving one vote each: Timberwolves, Kings, Hawks, Thunder
The Clippers and Pelicans are clearly expected to take a leap, with Kawhi Leonard and Zion Williamson returning, respectively. But the Thunder, who lost no. 2 pick Chet Holmgren for the season before it started?
“I don’t think they want to, but they’re pretty good,” a Western Conference executive said. “If they want to lose games, they’re going to have to sit a lot of players.”
Which team will take the biggest slide?
1. Jazz (14 votes)
2. Bulls (4 votes)
Others receiving one vote each: Suns, Grizzlies
After trading away Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in the off-season, most people expected the Utah Jazz — who finished as the No. 5 seed in the west last season — to nosedive in the standings. But the Jazz aren’t the only top-five seed from last season that lost key players.
“Utah will make the biggest slide, of course, but of the teams that are trying to compete, I actually think it could be Memphis,” an Eastern Conference executive said. ”They were great last year, and they added more young talent, but I think trading De’Anthony Melton and losing Kyle Anderson in free agency could hurt them more than people think. Plus, I do believe they overachieved a little last season and health is a big question mark especially with Jaren Jackson Jr.”
Then there are the players that arguably would have served their teams better on another team like DeAndre Ayton, who returned to the Suns after signing an offer with the Indiana Pacers in restricted free agency.
“What DeAndre said about not having talked to any of the coaches since the end of the season was clearly a shot at Monty, and Monty coming back at him by saying he hadn’t talked to any of his players during the off-season is not the Spurs’ way, which is the model he’s always used,” a Western Conference executive said. “The Spurs’ way is not to let anything out or say anything. And Jae Crowder wants to be traded? Things just don’t seem to be right there.”
Who is your NBA Finals matchup, and who wins it?
1. Clippers-Bucks (8 votes, with six of those voters picking the Clippers to win it all)
2. GSW-Bucks (4 votes, with three of those voters picking the Bucks to win it all)
Others receiving one vote each: Clippers-Nets (Clippers win), Bucks-Mavs (Bucks win), GSW-Celtics (GSW wins), Raptors-Ws (Raps win), Celtics-Clippers (Clippers win), Heat-GSW ( GSW wins), 76ers-Clippers (Clippers win), Suns-Nets (Nets win)
Thirteen of the 21 voters had the Bucks making the Finals, with six of them believing they’d take back their title. The reason is fairly clear.
“It’s hard to ever bet against Giannis,” an Eastern Conference scout said. “Still the best player in the league by a decent margin. I’m not a huge [coach Mike Budenholzer] guy, and I don’t think the rest of their roster is that great, but they’re going to have a real chance as long as Giannis is on the team.”
Eleven voters, on the other hand, have the Clippers making their first Finals trip after years of similar predictions. Nine believe they’ll win it, too.
“They have depth, versatility, continuity and they’ve faced their share of adversity,” a Western Conference general manager said. “Most teams don’t win right away. They have to go through some hard times and the Clippers have done that.”
Which star will demand a trade next?
1. Kevin Durant (5 votes)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4 votes)
3. Draymond Green (3 votes)
4. LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic (2 votes each)
Others receiving one vote each: Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving
Durant recommitted to Brooklyn, but many voters do not expect that peace to last. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander could tire of Oklahoma City’s long rebuild.
Who is the best all-around player in the NBA today?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (11 votes)
2. LeBron James (5 votes)
Others receiving one vote each: Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard
Who will be the best defensive player in the NBA this season?
1. Draymond Green (6 votes)
2. Jrue Holiday (4 votes)
3. Marcus Smart, Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, Giannis Antetokounmpo (2 votes each)
Others receiving one vote each: Herb Jones, Lou Dort
Despite being on the list of potential players who could push for a trade, Green came in as our top choice for defensive player of the year.
Which rookie isn’t being talked about enough?
1. Keegan Murray (8 votes)
2. Tari Eason (4 votes)
3. Shaedon Sharpe, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Williams (2 votes each)
Others receiving one vote each: Benedict Mathurin, Johnny Davis
Murray, the fourth overall pick for the Kings, is a trendy early rookie of the year choice. But Eason, a 21-year-old rookie for the Rockets taken with the 17th pick, might be worth getting to know.
“I didn’t like him based on what I saw on film before the draft, but he played really well,” an Eastern Conference assistant coach said. “I don’t know if Houston has the point guards to use him offensively, but he’s changed my mind as far as who he is as a player.”
Added an Eastern Conference scout: “He played great in summer league so there was a lot of talk about him then but he has the versatility to potentially play all five positions and could still exceed expectations this season.”
Which veteran player isn’t being talked about enough — either a comeback candidate or just a breakout candidate?
1. CJ McCollum (7 votes)
2. Damian Lillard (2 votes)
Others receiving one vote each: Klay Thompson, Nic Batum, Jrue Holiday, Caris Levert, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Paul George, PJ Tucker, DeJounte Murray, Zach LaVine, John Wall
McCollum and Lillard, ex-teammates, were the only players to garner multiple votes. But McCollum was the clear pick here.
“He saved a lot of careers with what he brought to that franchise,” an Eastern Conference assistant coach said. “What people questioned about him is if he was tough enough because he’s so articulate. There’s an edge to his game, but he can give a keynote speech at any conference in the world. Dame might be a better scorer, but CJ might be more skilled. Dame is shooting 3s or getting to the rim. CJ has a lot of ways to beat you.”
– Fox Sports US
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