Major League Baseball used to get back to business on Thursday after the All-Star Game. In recent years MLB added another day to the break, which meant another dry day for the sports calendar.
However, it gives us an extra day to set the table for the second half of the MLB season from a betting perspective.
Here is a look at the key points from the first half of the season, with odds from BetMGM:
The Reds and Orioles have been remarkably profitable: If you were regularly betting on the Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles in the first half of the season, well done. You have a good bankroll for the second half of the season.
The Reds and Orioles have easily the two most profitable teams for bettors this season. If someone bet $100 on the moneyline in every game, they’d be up $1,790 on the Reds and $1,582 on the Orioles according to Covers.com. Those two teams are comfortably over .500 — and in contention to win their respective divisions at the all-star break — often winning as significant underdogs. The odds on those two upstarts will shift, making it harder to profit on them the rest of the season, but they’re still worth keeping an eye on early in the second half.
No surprise for least profitable teams: The Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals have been by far the least profitable teams for bettors. That hypothetical $100 bettor would be down $2,203 on the A’s and an astonishing $2,548 on the Royals. It hasn’t mattered that the odds have ballooned for the favorites facing those two teams, the Royals and A’s can’t win enough to make it matter. The A’s are 25-76 and the Royals are 26-65. It won’t get better in the second half when each team trades whatever it can at the deadline. BetMGM offers season win totals during the MLB season, and under 52.5 on the Royals seems wise (the number is 49.5 for Oakland).
World Series narrowing favorites: There are just five teams with shorter than 15-to-1 odds to win the World Series:
Atlanta Braves +350
Tampa Bay Rays +500
Los Angeles Dodgers +550
Houston Astros +800
Texas Rangers +1000
That could open up value for a team that isn’t in the mix now but has talent and decent underlying stats. Philadelphia Phillies (+2500), San Diego Padres (+4000) or Seattle Mariners (+5000) might be good tickets to have if you don’t like the heavy favourites.
Awards watch: There are huge MVP favorites. Shohei Ohtani is -750 in the AL, which is down from -1400 in late June. Ronald Acuna Jr. the -350 in the NL. Only injuries (or an Ohtani trade to the NL?) can stop them.
Both Cy Young races are wide open, as is the AL Rookie of the Year. NL Rookie of the Year is dominated by Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks, a -300 favorite. Elly De La Cruz is the only other contender at +275. Everyone else is +4000 or longer.
Who to watch in the second half?: We already mentioned two teams that might be worth backing after the break.
The Phillies have suddenly gotten hot. Since June 1 the Braves have the best record in MLB, but the Phillies are right behind. They’re 23-11 since June 1 according to StatMuse. There could still be some value betting them as long as they stay hot.
The Padres are a strange team. They are under .500 but their run differential of +39 is by far the best among losing teams. It’s better than six of 12 teams who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. The talent on the Padres is undeniable. They’re persistent underachievers, but perhaps that turns in the second half. The Padres are 6-2 in July, and perhaps they can keep that going.
On the other end, it’s obviously important to keep an eye on the sellers at the trading deadline. Baseball betting in August and September features a lot of massive favorites, as some teams declare they are playing out the string the rest of the season.
Here’s a first look at the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Another slow day in sports
There isn’t much going on, but that’s normal for the all-star break. The Scottish Open starts with a strong field. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +700 and Rory McIlroy isn’t far back at +900.
The WNBA and MLS had full schedules on Wednesday and are quiet on Thursday. There’s some international soccer and other random events, but you won’t find much.
What’s the best bet?
I’ll pass on golf, and go for a long shot MLB future. The Padres are 30-to-1 to win the NL West. They’re 8.5 games back but they are better than their 43-47 record. It will be tough to catch the Dodgers, but that’s why they’re +3000. Of all the huge divisional underdogs, the Padres have the best chance to at least make it interesting.