CHICAGO — To recoup time lost from its owners’ lockout this winter, Major League Baseball reduced the number of off days during the postseason, prompting thoughts of pitching and travel nightmares. The new setup for the division and championship series may push thin bullpens and pitching staffs to the brink.
Verlander is part of a six-man starting rotation that, as of Monday afternoon, led the American League with a 3.13 ERA. Three of its four leverage relievers possess WHIPs at or under 1.00, anchoring a bullpen that boasts baseball’s lowest ERA and batting average against.
Entering Monday’s games, no team had gotten more innings from its starting pitchers than Houston. As a result, Astros relievers have thrown fewer innings than any bullpen in the sport. The trend bodes well before any postseason, but perhaps more so for this condensed sprint.
At least one of Houston’s starters will join the bullpen in the postseason with an ability to provide substantial length, be it from Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia or José Urquidy. Nothing may be more valuable given the new schedule construction.
The American League Division Series could finish with four games in five days. The American League Championship Series may have five straight days without an off day. Conventional reliever usage is often ignored in the playoffs — pitchers throw three or four days in a row if needed — but the Astros could be in a position where it isn’t.
Other teams may not be as fortunate, relying on a group of leverage relievers at an unsustainable pace. This year, there is a day off between Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS, another between Game 2 and 3 and none afterwards. In previous years, the days off came between Games 2 and 3 and, if necessary, Games 4 and 5. There are no off days after Game 3 of the ALCS. There had previously been a day off between Games 5 and 6, if the series went that far.
Houston entered Monday’s game against the White Sox with the American League’s best record. Barring an epic collapse, the team will receive one of the two byes to the ALDS and await a winner from one of the two wild card series. The Astros play their final regular-season game on Oct. 5 against the Phillies. Game 1 of the ALDS is scheduled for Oct. 11.
Houston Chronicle sports columnist Brian T. Smith discusses the criticism of the Astros’ lineup decisions, particularly the lack of playing time for newcomer Trey Mancini. Video: Houston Chronicle
Those five off days will allow the Astros to align their rotation however they please, but Verlander seems all but guaranteed to start Game 1 of the ALDS. Houston could also have him on full rest with the series — or its season — on the line.
Because there is now an off day between Game 1 and Game 2 in addition to one between Game 2 and Game 3, the Game 1 starter (in this case, Verlander) would be able to throw Game 4 on a full four days of rest.
In the past, managers had to weigh whether to bring their Game 1 starter back on three days of rest in a similar situation. Teams no longer have such an issue. Those with a bona fide, Game 1 ace like Verlander would, on paper, benefit the most. Houston has gone to a fourth game during each of its last three ALDS appearances.
Should the Astros need five games to dispatch their ALDS opponent, the strategy becomes more muddled. Taking away the off day between Game 4 and 5 means teams could not bring their Game 2 starter back on normal rest as has been possible in the past.
The Astros benefited from the setup in 2019, when Gerrit Cole struck out 10 across eight innings of one-run ball during a winner-take-all Game 5 against Tampa Bay at Minute Maid Park. The chance only arrived because Verlander did not deliver on short rest in Game 4 — a conundrum no longer in play.
The ALCS will begin on Oct. 19 and has just one off day on Oct. 21. Should the series go seven games, the final five will be played consecutively.
It could create travel hell if, for instance, the Astros play the Seattle Mariners or Toronto Blue Jays. An overnight international or cross-country flight before a game the next day is intimidating. Pitcher usage is one component, but consider the general stamina at this point. The possibility of Houston having fresh starters to deploy out of the bullpen is an advantage.
The condensed chaos could not prevent the inevitable. Game 7 of the World Series is scheduled for Nov. 5 and, if it occurs, will be the latest a Fall Classic game has ever been played.