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Minnesota Twins
2022 Record: 78-84
Third place, AL Central
Team ERA: 3.98 (19th)
Team OPS: .718 (11th)
What Went Right
For a large portion of the season, quite a bit. Minnesota was able to hold onto first place for the majority of the first half and a good deal of the second half of the season until, well, we’ll talk about it in a second. Carlos Correa’s first — and likely only — season with the Twins was a success, as the former Houston star hit .291 with an OPS+ of 140 and 22 homers. Luis Arraez was able to take home a “batting title” by hitting .316 in his 144 games, and looks like he’ll be a major contender for that honor as long as he’s able to get regular playing time. Byron Buxton was once again unable to play 100 games, but he hit 28 homers in that timeframe in his 92 games and 382 plate appearances. Jorge Polanco, Gio Urshela and Jose Miranda (more on him later) along with Correa formed one of the better infields in the American League, and one of the deeper overall lineups. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran was spectacular in relief with a 1.86 ERA and 89/16 K/BB ratio in just under 70 innings, and when they were able to take the mound (more on that later), Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan both had solid starting campaigns for Minnesota.
What Went Wrong
A week before the trade deadline, the Twins were 52-44, sitting in first place, and Minnesota made several moves to make the club better at the August 2 deadline. From that point on, the club went 26-40, and a September that saw them go 11-18 took them out of playoff contention. Some of the blame can go to the offense slowing down, but much of the collapse is due to the lack of health in the rotation. Not one Minnesota starter threw more than 147 innings, as injuries to pitchers like Ryan, Gray, Bailey Ober and deadline-acquisition Tyler Mahle saw the Twins starting some players you typically don’t see contenders have on the bump. Duran was brilliant, but the rest of the bullpen was mediocre at best, and Jorge Lopez wasn’t close to the same pitcher he was in Baltimore with the Twins as seen in a 4.37 ERA after being dealt compared to a 1.68 ERA with the Orioles . There were some disappointments on offense as well. Gary Sanchez continued his unfortunate demise with a .205 average and 136/40 K/BB ratio in 18 games, and Max Kepler dealt with injuries and also registered just a .666 OPS with only 9 homers in 446 plate appearances.
Fantasy Slants
**Royce Lewis was able to make his MLB debut in 2022, which is good. He hit .300 with an .867 OPS in his 41 plate appearances along with two homers, which is very good. Unfortunately, his season was limited to just those 41 plate appearances because Lewis tore his ACL making a spectacular play in the outfield; the same ACL that he tore a year earlier. There are obvious injury risks associated with the former first-overall pick, but with that risk comes an awful lot of reward. If healthy, he should get a chance to be an everyday player for Minnesota, and his upside competes with any prospect in baseball.
**Alex Kirilloff is a former top prospect himself, but he also dealt with injuries again in 2022, and unlike Lewis, he didn’t impress when he was able to take the field with a .250/.290/.361 slash in 45 games. He was considered a breakout candidate based on his pedigree and some flashes during his rookie campaign in 2021, but he’s dealt with issues throughout his professional career in terms of being able to stay on the field on top of so-so results. His talent will make him an intriguing late-round selection in some leagues, but there’s certainly reason for pessimism with Kirilloff going into 2023.
**Miranda got off to a disastrous start after being promoted to Minnesota; going 5-for-53 in his first 14 games. From that point on, the 24-year-old hit .292 with 14 homers and an .807 OPS while looking like one of the better rookies of the 2022 class. The concern here is that his approach at the plate leaves a bit to be desired and he was well below average in barreling the baseball, but he was also above average in several categories that measure his ability to make hard contact. He may not be a star, but it’s not hard to see Miranda becoming a fantasy stalwart going forward.
**Ryan’s numbers were solid in his rookie campaign with a 3.55 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 151/47 K/BB ratio over 147 innings. The advanced stats suggest that he was deserving of the numbers, but also create a smidgen of cause for concern. He was excellent at avoiding hard contact and was in the 65th percentile in K percentage, but he also struggled with command as seen in a well below-average barrel percentage along with a fastball that not only ranks closer to the bottom than the top in velocity , but also spin. Long story short, Ryan should be a usable fantasy option in 2023, but there’s a good chance that what you see is what you get.
**This article has focused on rookies so far, but let’s age things up with a 26-year-old who completed his second season. Nick Gordon got a chance to be a regular thanks in large part to the injuries in the Minnesota lineup, but also because he took advantage of his playing time with a .272 average, .743 OPS (113 on the OPS+) and nine homers with six stolen bases in his 136 contests. The fifth pick of the 2014 draft showed very little patience at the plate with a chase rate and walk rate that both ranked near the very bottom of the league, but he also made loads of hard contact — 74th percentile in hard-hit percentage – – and 86th in expected slugging percentage. Gordon should at least be a utility player for Minnesota, but the metrics suggest he has a chance for fantasy success if given a chance to play as a regular.
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Key Free Agents: Carlos Correa ($35.1 million player option), Sonny Gray (12.7 million club option), Miguel Sano ($14.25 million club option), Chris Archer, Gary Sanchez, Dylan Bundy ($11 million club option).
Team Needs: Some better health luck would help, that’s for sure. But Minnesota is going to have to address the starting rotation even if those arms listed above stay healthy, and they also should be in the market for a backstop and some depth in the outfield. As poorly as things ended for the Twins in 2022, there’s a foundation here that suggests this team can be a contender — depending on if Minnesota is willing to open the pocketbooks again over the winter.