We’re just a few days away from September, which means it’s truly Scoreboard Watch season. And while every game technically counts the same at the end of the season, each one can also feel magnified as time starts to run out for teams who’ve taken too long to find their groove this summer.
This week, I’m covering the five teams my power rankings partner Nick Selbe and I have yet to expand upon since we started going in-depth on a quintet of squads after the All-Star break rather than writing about all 30 every week. Then, next week, we start again.
It’s exceedingly likely that Juan Soto (3.9 bWAR with Washington) and Josh Bell (3.5 bWAR) end up as Washington’s two most productive players of the season despite being dealt at the trade deadline. The closest player to them is a 24-year-old catcher Keibert Ruizwho would need to account for more than double his 1.3 bWAR season total in one month to prevent that oddity from happening.
While it’s far too early to draw any conclusions about the Soto trade, let’s go ahead and talk about CJ Abrams, the only piece in the return on the big-league roster at the moment (MacKenzie Gore is currently recovering from elbow inflammation but is expected to return by season’s end). It’s worth noting that Abrams is 6-for-44 with zero extra-base hits or walks since he was recalled from Triple A on Aug. 15. He’s been the second-worst hitter by wRC+ in the majors since making his Nationals debut—the only hitter who’s graded out worse is fellow rookie shortstop and Reds top prospect Jose Barrero—and it sure seems like he could use some more minor league seasoning.
Veteran lefthander Patrick Corbin, who’s in contention to record one of the worst seasons ever by a starting pitcher, gave the Nationals something to celebrate Sunday when he ended Washington’s MLB-record 43-game streak without a win recorded by a starting pitcher. The bad news is that it was just his fifth win against an MLB-high 17 losses, and that the Nationals are still in danger of completing August without having won a series. Fortunately, their last chance comes in a home series against the team directly after them in these rankings—and, oddly, their last series win came on the road between in late July against our top-ranked team.
LHP Patrick Corbin has posted a 6.56 ERA and a 5-17 record across 26 games and 127.2 innings pitched this season.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
Last week was nothing short of disastrous for Chicago’s playoff hopes. According to Fangraphs, as of last Sunday, the White Sox had a 42.8% chance of making their third consecutive playoff appearance—a feat that has yet to be accomplished by the franchise. However, after Chicago was swept at home by the Diamondbacks over the weekend to fall to two games under .500 (which followed losing three of four road contests against Kansas City and Baltimore), those odds have crashed to a season-low 13.3% with 35 games remaining.
After Chicago lost 7–2 to Arizona at home, fans booed the team and manager Tony La Russa, who said they have “every right to be upset.”
Kamil Krzaczynski/USA Today network
In our midseason predictions conducted at the All-Star break, I still held out hope that the Pale Hose could recover from their season-long malaise. But pretty much everything about this team screams mediocrity, whether it’s the pitching staff (4.04 ERA, 20th in MLB), the offense (4.16 runs per game, 21st in MLB), the negative run differential (-43), the 27–37 record against winning teams or the 27–27 record against the soft AL Central. Chicago also lost two more key contributors to the injured list last week after starting pitcher Michael Kopech (knee strain) and third baseman Yoán Moncada (hamstring strain) joined a cavalcade of sidelined Sox. Even if you think Moncada’s .197/.269/.313 slash line means the Sox may be better off without him for the time being, it sounds like the alternative is going to be light-hitting Leury Garcia taking his spot in the lineup. Catcher Yasmani Grandal is set to return from the injured list sometime this week, but he’s also been a liability at the plate with three home runs in 251 plate appearances to go along with his typically unsightly batting average.
The lack of urgency from the front office both at the trade deadline and over the offseason to capitalize on competing in such a winnable division continues to look foolish. Even Chicago’s lone deadline addition, a reliever Jake Diekman, has been a letdown so far, handing out eight walks with 12 strikeouts in 8⅓ innings with a 5.40 ERA. Other than preseason expectations, there’s really nothing about the White Sox to suggest a September turnaround is forthcoming.
Much like the teams ranked below them this week, the Diamondbacks have practically been eliminated from playoff contention barring a world-beating September. But at 19–15 since the All-Star break, they’re one of only two teams under .500 on the season with a winning record over that span (the other being the Cubs). And they do have hope arriving in the form of MLB’s newly crowned consensus No. 1 prospect Corbin Carroll, who is reportedly being called up to the big show Monday.
It’s been a meteoric rise for the outfielder, Arizona’s first-round pick out of in 2019, considering the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor league season and a shoulder injury limited him to seven games in High-A ball last year. Nevertheless, Carroll hit .287/.408/.535 in 33 games at Triple A this season after starting out at Double A with an even stronger showing (.313/.430/.643) in 58 games. That means the 22-year-old is on the verge of debuting in the majors with just 142 games beyond high school under his belt and 100 over the last three seasons.
That doesn’t sound like enough game experience to be prepared for the top level of professional baseball, but Carroll is a legitimate five-tool talent. No D-back has ever ranked higher on MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings since the first edition in 2004, according to MLB.com reporter Sam Dykstra, meaning he has a claim as being the franchise’s most complete product ever. The left-handed hitting Carroll has the blazing speed to play center field and the arm for either corner outfield spot, one of which he’ll likely occupy for the time being with Alek Thomas doing well in center. But it’s the power surge he’s shown this year that really caused his stock to rise, as his 5’10” frame made scouts more doubtful about that part of his game.
Corbin Carroll, 22, was the No. 16 pick in the 2019 MLB draft but has quickly risen up the prospects rankings ever since.
Michael Chow-Arizona Republic Baseball Diamondbacks Select Minor League Camp
Seattle, where Carroll was born and raised, has had a banner few weeks in the professional sports world with Sue Bird saying goodbye and Julio Rodriguez committing his future to the city. Perhaps Carroll will give Mariners fans a team to root for in the NL.
Toronto’s recent road trip saw the Jays win three of four from the AL East-leading Yankees before sweeping the Red Sox to the outskirts of playoff contention at Fenway Park. Then the Blue Jays traveled back home, only to have the lowly Angels (who came into the weekend on a six-game losing streak) outscore them 22-3 in a three-game shellacking that included two shutouts. It was a fitting continuation of Toronto’s vaguely disappointing season so far, which has been good enough to keep the Jays in a playoff spot but not good enough to keep Charlie Montoyo in the dugout.
The early returns on the roster additions made before the trade deadline have likewise been mixed. Whit Merrifield and Jackie Bradley Jr. have yet to reverse their season-long slumps north of the border, as they’ve both accounted for -0.3 bWAR in their short time in Toronto. And Mitch White, who’s effectively replaced Yusei Kikuchi in the rotation in the time since he was acquired from the Dodgers, he has been so-so in four relatively short starts for his new team. (Neither of them performed well in their new roles Friday against the Angels, as White gave up seven runs in five innings and Kikuchi allowed three runs in three innings.) New bullpen arms Anthony Bass and Zach Pop, both acquired from the Marlins, have in the meantime been exactly what the Jays needed for a bullpen that’s short on dominant strikeout machines but is now quite deep in reliable relievers.
Two things to watch out for over the next five-plus weeks: One, despite possessing the personnel to deploy an entirely right-handed lineup, the Jays own the worst record in games against left-handed starting pitchers (10–16) among all contending teams.
Two, Toronto has won only three of its nine games this year against Baltimore (who now trails the Jays by just 1.5 games in the wild-card race) and the two teams have 10 more games remaining against each other. Fangraphs‘ playoff odds, which takes roster strength into account, gives Toronto a 90.9% chance of qualifying for the playoffs against just 8.7% for Baltimore. But that gap feels too wide considering how crowded the middle of the AL East has felt the last couple of months. It’s not a stretch to say how they perform against each other will decide which of them, if any, qualify for the postseason.
The extension between the Mariners and star Julio Rodriguez will guarantee him $210 million but has the potential to be much, much bigger.
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The Mets and Braves continue to keep it close near the top of both the NL East and our power rankings. New York owns the third-best record since the All-Star break at 24–12 … and Atlanta has the fourth-best record at 23–12 (Dodgers and Cardinals have the best and second-best winning percentages, respectively). The divisional race—which has a first-round bye on the line—looks like it’ll come down to the final week, if not the final day, as the two clubs face off in their only remaining series against each other during the final weekend of the regular season.
Before that, the Mets host the Dodgers for a marquee midweek series starting Tuesday night. Unfortunately Max Scherzer won’t be pitching against his former teammates this week, but Jacob deGrom will take the mound Wednesday and Clayton Kershaw could make his return from the injured list for Los Angeles on Thursday. I suggest catching those clashes for a potential NLCS preview.
Francisco Lindor has helped lead the Mets to the top of the NL East this season, the first of his 10-year, $341 million contract with the team.
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Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor have been the most valuable players at their respective positions since the All-Star break as they rank 10th and 11th in fWAR among position players over that span, respectively. But the Mets have been getting little to no offensive production at catcher, which is why some fans are clamoring for top prospect Francisco Álvarez to be called up. I’m usually all for being aggressive with promoting your top prospects to the majors, but assimilating a catcher with a pitching staff in the middle of the season is a different sort of animal—and the 20-year-old Álvarez isn’t even hitting well in Triple-A (.180/.340/.378, six homers in 32 games). After their shopping sprees under Steve Cohen over the past couple of offseasons, they should feel confident that the depth they’ve stockpiled across the diamond should help make up for their relative weak spot behind the plate.
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