A lot of attention is paid to all of the big signings and trades made during Hot Stove season, but the moves that aren’t made can be equally important.
Last offseason, the Astros didn’t bring in an outside replacement after losing Carlos Correa to the Twins in free agency, opting instead to give rookie Jeremy Peña the opportunity to seize the starting shortstop job. Peña went on to produce 4.8 wins above replacement in the regular season, then earned both the ALCS and World Series MVP Awards as the Astros won it all.
Similarly, the spotlight is now on the eight players below heading into 2023, given the holes that weren’t addressed by their clubs before all of the elite free agents came off the board. Although the trade market could still shake up the landscape, these eight are currently positioned to be pivotal players for teams with serious postseason aspirations in 2023.
Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals
While St. Louis added catcher Willson Contreras to an offense that already included 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and third-place finisher Nolan Arenado, the team’s rotation looks awfully similar to last season’s iteration, minus José Quintana. As a result, the Cards are counting on Flaherty to not only stay healthy but also recapture the ace form he showed in 2019. After finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young Award race that year, Flaherty has recorded a 102 ERA+ and 4.36 FIP over the past three seasons, missing considerable time due to injuries in each of the last two.
Vaughn Grissom, SS, Braves
The Braves have a hole at shortstop with Dansby Swanson joining the Cubs, and unless they sign free agent Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias, the job could be Grissom’s to lose. Grissom, who will turn 22 next month, recorded a 121 OPS+ over 156 plate appearances as a rookie in 2022, but he limped to the finish line with a .613 OPS in his final 27 games after putting up a 1.123 OPS in his first 14 games. There are also concerns about Grissom’s ability to handle shortstop defensively, although Braves third-base coach and infield guru Ron Washington told The Athletic (subscription required) earlier this offseason that he saw “big-time” improvement from Grissom while working one-on- one with the youngster in New Orleans.
Gavin Lux, SS, Dodgers
For the second straight offseason, the Dodgers have to replace a departed free-agent shortstop. But unlike 2022, when they had the luxury of replacing Corey Seager with another All-Star in Trea Turner, their solution isn’t obvious heading into 2023. Lux could be the guy if he fulfills the promise he showed while ascending the ranks to become MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect. The 25-year-old made strides at the plate last season, recording a career-high 105 OPS+, but he also hit just six homers and slugged .399 (including .354 vs. left-handed pitchers) over 471 plate appearances.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels
The Angels improved their depth with the additions of Tyler Anderson, Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Carlos Estévez, but as currently constructed, they look like the fourth-best team in the AL West. To make the most of Mike Trout’s age-31 season and what could be Shohei Ohtani’s final year with the club, the Angels need Rendon to be the player they thought they were getting when they signed him to a seven-year, $245 million deal after 2019. Through the first three years of that deal, Rendon has provided the Halos with 20 homers, a .779 OPS and 3.3 bWAR in 157 games.
Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles
After posting a surprising 83-79 record in 2022, this was supposed to be the offseason when the Orioles dipped their toe back into the free-agent pool. However, their biggest additions to date are right-hander Kyle Gibson and second baseman Adam Frazier. Baltimore has a strong crop of young position players led by budding star catcher Adley Rutschman, but the team’s rotation has a number of question marks. If the O’s are going to make a leap into contention in 2023, they’re likely going to need Rodríguez, MLB’s No. 4 prospect, to hit the ground running once he makes his big league debut. The flamethrower was on the cusp of joining Baltimore last season, but his ascent was stalled by a right lat strain.
Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox
Boston’s decision to sign Story to a six-year, $140 million contract last March was as much about the future as it was about 2022. The Red Sox knew Xander Bogaerts was likely to exercise his opt-out clause to become a free agent this offseason , and Story represented an insurance policy in case Bogaerts did not re-sign. That insurance policy is about to be put into effect after Bogaerts signed an 11-year, $280 million deal with the Padres. Defensively, the two may be a wash, but the Red Sox need Story to do much more with the bat than he did in either of the past two seasons (102 OPS+ both years). Bogaerts notched a 133 OPS+ in his final five seasons in Beantown, best among shortstops (min. 1,500 plate appearances) in that span.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/DH, White Sox
With José Abreu departing as a free agent to sign with the Astros, the White Sox have a massive void to fill in both the clubhouse and batting order. Vaughn can help with the latter if he takes another step forward after showing promise last season. Vaughn’s numbers, including a .271 batting average, 17 homers and a 111 OPS+, don’t jump off the page, but the 24-year-old produced hard contact (batted balls with 95+ mph exit velocity) on 20.7% of his swings in 2022. That tied him with Juan Soto for fourth highest in MLB.
Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees
A crop of star shortstops hit the free-agent market in each of the past two offseasons, but the Yankees weren’t seriously involved in the bidding for any of them due to their faith in their young options at the position — Volpe (MLB’s No. 5 prospect) and Oswald Peraza (No. 50), both of whom are expected to compete for the starting job with the incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa this spring. After focusing their attention elsewhere on the free-agent market, the Yankees need one of their young shortstops to pop in 2023. Although Peraza is considered the better defender, Volpe is the higher ranked prospect of the two and the better bet to become a star on the level of some of the free-agent shortstops on whom the Yanks passed.
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