The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will face off in a battle of AL Central division foes on Saturday night in Chicago. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Twins-White Sox prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Minnesota, with a 67-63 record, are in second place in the AL Central, just one game behind Cleveland for the division crown, and four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. In a tight division, every game is important, especially when the teams have so many games left against each other.
Chicago has limped to a 66-66 record, with a three-game winning streak currently. The team will be without veteran manager Tony La Russa, whose expertise will be missed down the stretch. Chicago sits just three games out of the division lead, the closest a third place team is to the division crown.
Here are the Twins-White Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-White Sox Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-188)
Chicago White Sox: -1.5 (+155)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Tyler Mahle, a key trade deadline acquisition, will make his fourth start for Minnesota tonight. Mahle has not pitched in about three weeks, but has impressed in his first three starts with his new club. Mahle has pitched to a 2.51 ERA in 14.1 innings (4.17 overall for the season), holding batters to a .167 batting average. Mahle has struck out 25.6% of batters he has faced, and the underlying numbers suggest he is due for a string of better luck, with his expected ERA sitting at 3.35. Mahle throws a fastball over half the time, and batters have hit just .193 against those fastballs, with 87 of Mahle’s 126 strikeouts coming on fastballs. Minnesota’s bullpen is pretty average, ranking 14th with a 3.75 ERA. Rookie Jhoan Duran has impressed on the back of his triple-digit fastball, with a 1.87 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 57.2 innings pitched. Duran averages an absurd 100.7 mph on his fastball, while his 33% strikeout rate ranks in the 94th percentile. Jovani Moran has also provided solid relief, with a 2.05 ERA in his 26.1 innings, striking out 36 batters.
Minnesota’s offense has been solid all season, ranking 11th with 153 home runs, and tenth with a .249 batting average. In Byron Buxton’s absence, Jorge Polanco has stepped up, with 16 home runs and 16 doubles, with a .346 on-base percentage. Shortstop Carlos Correa has hit .269 with 15 home runs in his first year with the club. Correa has been stellar when digging deeper into the numbers, with an above-average walk rate of 11.3%, and a below-average strikeout rate of 20.3%. Correa’s maximum exit velocity of 114.6 mph ranks in the 96th percentile in the league. Correa has bashed fastballs this season, with a .282 batting average and eight home runs coming against that pitch. Rookie Jose Miranda has hit .275 with 15 home runs in 93 games, adding 17 doubles. Catcher Gary Sanchez has impressed in his new digs, with 13 home runs and a remarkable improvement on defense.
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago sends Dylan Cease, a bonafide ace, to combat a strong Minnesota lineup. Cease has pitched to a 2.27 ERA with 190 strikeouts in 147 innings, going 12-6 on the season. Cease’s incredible slider has held batters to a .121 batting average, with 113 of his strikeouts coming on the pitch. Cease has struck out 31.7% of batters he has faced this season. This strong of a season has Cease firmly in the discussion for the AL Cy Young award. A so-so bullpen is the kryptonite of this pitching staff. Setup man Kendall Graveman has been a great off-season pickup, with a 2.60 ERA in his 55.1 innings. Reynaldo Lopez has a 2.92 ERA and 56 strikeouts in his 52.1 innings. Lopez has only walked 4.3% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the 95th percentile in the league. Closer Liam Hendriks has pitched to a 3.26 ERA with 67 strikeouts and 29 saves in 47 innings. Batters are hitting just .226 against the Australians.
Chicago’s offense has been bolstered by recent returns. Andrew Vaughn has been consistent all season, leading the team with 15 home runs and 63 RBI in his 108 games. Jose Abreu has been the most consistent player for Chicago this season, with a team-leading .309 batting average and 30 doubles, hitting 14 home runs. Luis Robert, who has battled injuries this season, has hit 12 home runs and stolen 11 bases in his 90 games this season. AJ Pollock is third on the team with 21 doubles, adding 10 home runs and a triple. Gavin Sheets has added 15 home runs while hitting .255 in some extended playing time this season.
Final Twins-White Sox Prediction & Pick
Dylan Cease is a pretty easy bet in this one.
Final Twins-White Sox Prediction & Pick: Chicago -1.5 (+158), under 7.5 (-115)