The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros will conclude their three-game series in Houston on Sunday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes an Orioles-Astros prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Baltimore has won three games in a row, bringing their record to 67-59, just one and a half games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. The team’s Cinderella run has continued and is showing no signs of slowing down. The baseball world is waiting with bated breath to see how the team will fare over the last few weeks.
Houston is securely in first place in the AL West, going 81-47 so far, with an 11.5-game lead over the second-place Seattle Mariners. With about six weeks to go in the regular season, a playoff spot is all but guaranteed for Houston, which has been the case for the better part of a decade.
Here are the Orioles-Astros MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Astros Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-118)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 6.5 (-120)
Under: 6.5 (-102)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore is getting a lot done with less this season. For an overachieving club, that is usually the case. Entering the season with little to no expectations, Baltimore has gotten production from unexpected sources, and players are playing above their previous levels. Sunday’s starting pitcher, Austin Voth, is one of those providing unexpected success.
Voth was vultured off the waiver wire from Washington. In his 11 starts with Baltimore, Voth has pitched to a 2.81 ERA in 48 innings, with a 1.17 WHIP. Voth has only walked 6.9% of the batters he has faced.
Baltimore’s bullpen is outstanding, ranking fourth in bullpen ERA with a 3.17 ERA. Cionel Perez, another waiver claim, has pitched to a brilliant 1.64 in 52 appearances, while Joey Krehbiel has pitched to a 2.91 ERA in his 45 appearances. Closer Felix Bautista has pitched to a 1.58 ERA in 57 innings, striking out 76 batters. Bautista is in the top half of almost all the Baseball Savant leaderboards.
Baltimore’s offense is quietly enjoying a good season, tied for seventh with 225 doubles and 10th with 76 stolen bases. Anthony Santander has hit 23 home runs and 73 RBI, both totals that lead the team. Ryan Mountcastle has hit 18 home runs, driving in 65 runs, both totals that rank second on the team. Rookie catching sensation Adley Rutschman has taken the baseball world by storm, hitting 26 doubles in his 78 games played. Austin Hays paces the team with 29 doubles, adding 15 home runs with a .256 batting average. Jorge Mateo has belted 11 home runs while stealing 28 bases and providing spectacular defense at shortstop. Cedric Mullins has also hit 11 home runs, stealing 27 bases and matching Hays for the team lead with 29 doubles while also leading the team with a .267 batting average.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston is sending its absolute best to the mound in Justin Verlander. Verlander has turned back the clock again, turning in one of his best seasons ever. Verlander has walked just 4.4% of the batters he has faced, en route to a 16-3 record with a 1.87 ERA in 149 innings across 23 starts. On all four of Verlander’s pitches, batters have hit below .200, with 71 of his 148 strikeouts coming on his slider. Verlander’s last seven games have been even better, with a 1.58 ERA and 50 strikeouts in those 45.2 innings.
Houston’s bullpen has the lowest ERA in baseball, boasting a 2.99 mark. The group has struck out 429 batters in their 385.1 innings pitched. Rafael Montero has pitched to a 2.56 ERA in his 55 appearances. Hard-throwing righty Bryan Abreu has pitched to a 2.17 ERA in his 40 appearances, striking out 67 batters in 45.2 innings. Ryne Stanek has been the best of the group, with a 1.28 ERA in his 46 appearances.
Offensively, Houston is led by Yordan Alvarez. The slugging lefty has belted 31 home runs, leading the team, with 80 RBI and a .294/.398/.597 slash line. Kyle Tucker leads the team with 82 RBI and 19 stolen bases, and he is second to Alvarez with 22 home runs. Alex Bregman leads the team with 34 doubles, hitting 19 home runs and adding 75 RBI while walking more than he has struck out. Jose Altuve has a .285 batting average, with 50 combined extra-base hits, adding 12 stolen bases. Yuli Gurriel has struggled some this season but is tied for the team lead with 34 doubles. Houston is fourth with 170 home runs and has struck out just 947 times, the third-lowest in the league. The offense has long been adept at hitting for power without sacrificing much in the way of contact.
Final Orioles-Astros Prediction & Pick
Let’s give Baltimore the nod here and keep the magic alive, even against Justin Verlander.
Final Orioles-Astros Prediction & Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (-118), under 6.5 (-102)
