The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros will play the middle game of their three-game series on Saturday night in Houston. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes an Orioles-Astros prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Baltimore has continued to surprise teams this season, with a 66-59 record, just two and a half games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. Even after trading away key players at the trade deadline, the team has remained in playoff contention.
Houston owns the best record in the American League, going 81-46. The team is comfortably in first place in the AL West, 11.5 games ahead of Seattle. Houston is dominant at home, going 42-19 in Houston. The team has one of the best rosters in the league, easily winning the AL West yet again.
Here are the Orioles-Astros MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Astros Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-140)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore will send Dean Kremer to the mound in this one. Kremer has a bit of a breakout season in 2022, going 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 75.2 innings across his 14 starts. That is a far cry from the 2021 season where Kremer’s ERA was at an elevated 7.55. Now, there are clearly a few different reasons for Kremer’s newfound success. One peek at his stat line shows a dramatic decrease in home runs, as Kremer has given up just 7 long balls this season, compared to 17 in 13 starts in 2021. Kremer’s velocity is largely average, but it is impeccable control that allows him to get outs, as he has walked just 5.8% of batters he has faced. Almost all of Kremer’s pitches have above-average movement aspects.
The batted ball statistics against Kremer have improved remarkably from 2021. Baltimore’s bullpen is one of the best groups in the league, with a 3.18 ERA that ranks fourth in the league. Newly minted closer Felix Bautista has pitched to a 1.62 ERA with nine saves in 55.2 innings. Bautista has struck out 73 batters on the season. Cionel Perez has been impressive, with a 1.64 ERA and 7-1 record in his 44 games.
Baltimore’s lineup has weathered the loss of Trey Mancini, ranking seventh in the league with 224 doubles. Anthony Santander has taken over as the leader of the lineup, with 22 home runs and 71 RBI to lead the team in both categories. Rookie sensation Adley Rutschman has only played in 77 games but has 25 doubles and 8 home runs. Jorge Mateo has sent 11 baseballs over the wall and leads the team with 28 stolen bases, Cedric Mullins has also belted 11 home runs, adding 26 steals of his own. Austin Hays leads the team with 29 doubles, adding 14 home runs and a .254 batting average. Ryan Mountcastle is second on the team with 18 home runs, adding 24 doubles. This lineup may be young, but it is performing and helping to keep them in contention.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston has tabbed Jose Urquidy as tonight’s starting pitcher. Urquidy owns a 12-4 record in 23 starts, with a 3.63 ERA across 134 innings. Since he debuted in 2019, Urquidy has provided roughly the same level of production as he has in 2022. Already, Urquidy has set a career-high in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts. Across his last seven starts, Urquidy has pitched to a lowly 2.76 ERA, going 4-1 in that span. Urquidy does not throw particularly hard, averaging 93.6 mph on his fastball, but batters are still hitting just .241 against it. Urquidy has walked just 5.1% of the hitters he has faced, which ranks in the 89th percentile across the league. Still, the expected statistics off Urquidy suggest he is due for a regression, as his expected ERA sits at 4.41, and the expected OPS against Urquidy is .070 higher than the actual number.
Houston’s bullpen, one of the deepest groups in the league, is led by hard-throwing Ryne Stanek. Stanek has pitched to a minuscule 1.28 ERA in 46 appearances. Closer Ryan Pressley has impressed in his 39 appearances but is currently on the Injured List. Still, there are more than enough options to alleviate the loss of Pressley.
Yordan Alvarez paces the offense with 31 home runs and a .294 batting average. Alvarez is a hulking slugger and a real problem for opposing pitching. Fellow outfielder Kyle Tucker leads the team with 82 RBI, belting 22 home runs and stealing 19 bases as well. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have turned in vintage seasons, combining for 40 home runs and 62 doubles. Rookie Jeremy Pena has proved a stellar replacement for Carlos Correa, hitting 33 extra-base hits and adding seven stolen bases.
Final Orioles-Astros Prediction & Pick
Let’s have some fun here and keep believing in Baltimore.
Final Orioles-Astros Prediction & Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (-140), over 8 (-120)
