The Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres will wrap up their series on Sunday afternoon in San Diego. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Nationals-Padres prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Washington is the worst team in the league with a 41-81 record. Most of the core from the 2019 championship team is either playing for other teams or are injured. This late in the season, it is time to see what the future of the Nationals will look like.
San Diego is one of the teams that pillaged the Nationals, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the team. With a 67-56 record, San Diego holds the final NL Wild Card spot. Playing in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers basically regulates the other teams to the Wild Card race.
Here are the Nationals-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Padres Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+115)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-138)
Over: 8.5 (-112)
Under: 8.5 (-108)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington will send veteran Patrick Corbin to the mound, easily the team’s most expensive and worst player at the same time. Corbin is 4-16 with a 6.96 (!!!!) ERA in his 24 starts, the third season of a steady decline for Corbin. Batters have hit an astounding .328 against Corbin, hitting 22 home runs. Looking at Corbin’s Baseball Savant page is not for the faint of heart, as almost every category is in the blue, ranking in the bottom half of the league.
Washington’s bullpen ranks 23rd in the league with a 4.19 ERA. Still, there are some strong components to this bullpen. Veteran Steve Cishek has pitched to a 2.57 ERA in his last 15 games, and a 3.78 ERA overall. Carl Edwards, who has been largely ineffective since 2018, has pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 41 appearances. Erasmo Ramirez and Kyle Finnegan are the other two main relievers who have an ERA below 4.00.
Juan Soto and Josh Bell leave gaping holes in the lineup. No way around it, the two were the best hitters on this club. Now, Lane Thomas and Nelson Cruz are the best hitters on this club, with 12 and nine home runs respectively. Cruz leads the team with 59 RBI and 44 walks. Cesar Hernandez leads the team with a .245 batting average and 25 doubles. There is not much to write home about with this offense, but top prospect CJ Abrams, acquired from these Padres, will see a ton of playing time down the stretch, which should excite the fan base.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego now has one of the deeper lineups in the game, combining the forces of Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Manny Machado. The trio was supposed to be joined by Fernando Tatis Jr. recently, but even the best-laid plans go awry. Still, the trio is fearsome in their own right. Soto has slashed an impressive .305/.461/.492 in his 17 games with the club. Bell has not yet enjoyed the same level of success, but he combined with Soto to power the Padres past Washington last night. Manny Machado leads the team with 22 home runs, 31 doubles, and a .302 batting average. San Diego is second in the league with 447 walks, and are ninth with 213 doubles.
Sean Manaea is Sunday afternoon’s starter, with a 4.83 ERA in his 22 starts, striking out 128 batters in 123 innings. Manaea actually has been slightly better than his numbers have suggested, as his expected ERA is just a 4.04. Manaea’s velocity is down about a tick, which could explain some of the issues with his numbers.
San Diego’s bullpen is a solid group, ranking 11th with a 3.72 ERA. Nick Martinez, who has spent time in the rotation as well, has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in his 20 relief appearances. San Diego needs newly minted Josh Hader to start pitching like his old self. The bridge going to Hader does not have any issues, but Hader has been awful since joining the club, with a 16.20 ERA in his five appearances. Low slot lefty Tim Hill has one of the most unique releases in the league, and his deception has helped in his 3.09 ERA despite just 18 strikeouts in 35 innings. Hill has surrendered just five earned runs in his last 30 appearances, totaling 29 innings. Nabil Crismatt owns a sparkling 2.98 ERA in his 41 relief appearances, often spanning more than an inning at a time. Crismatt may be called upon for multiple outs if Manaea struggles in this one.
Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick
Uh, this one should be pretty self explanatory for those at home.
Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick: San Diego -1.5 (-138), over 8.5 (-112)
