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MLB odds: Mariners-Guardians prediction, odds and pick

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The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians will match up for a potential playoff preview on Saturday night in Cleveland. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Mariners-Guardians prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Seattle is an impressive 74-58 on the season, second in both the AL West and AL Wild Card races. While there is no shot for Seattle to overtake Houston, a Wild Card berth is within reach. A playoff berth would be the team’s first since 2001 and would snap the longest active playoff drought in the sport.

Cleveland is part of a tightly contested AL Central, going 68-62, good for first place in the division. Cleveland still holds a one-game lead over Minnesota despite a recent three-game losing streak. The team’s pitching is the story, but now they will have to deal with injuries to two of their key guys down the stretch.

Here are the Mariners-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

MLB Odds: Mariners-Guardians Odds

Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+100)

Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-120)

Over: 7.5 (-115)

Under: 7.5 (-105)

Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread

It may go under the radar a bit due to Houston’s dominance, but Seattle has been one of the better teams in the American League this season. Robbie Ray, tonight’s starting pitcher, is a big reason for that success. Ray has gone 11-8 with a 3.58 ERA and a team-leading 180 strikeouts in 155.2 innings. Ray has struck out 28.6% of the batters he has faced, aided by a brilliant slider. The slider has held batters to a measly .185 batting average, with 89 of Ray’s 180 strikeouts coming on the pitch. Combining the fastball and slider, 160 of Ray’s 180 strikeouts have come on those two pitches. Batters have hit a combined .197 against those two pitches. Overall, opponents have managed just a .218 batting average against Ray.

Seattle’s bullpen is filthy, ranking eighth with a 3.34 ERA on the season. Andres Munoz pitched sparingly in parts of two seasons before 2022 but has pitched to a 2.89 ERA in his 53 innings, striking out 84 batters. Munoz averages 100.1 mph on his fastball, but it’s the slider that has given batters fits. Munoz throws 62% sliders, and batters have hit .123 against the offering, striking out 66 times. Overall, Munoz has struck out 41% of batters faced, ranking in the 100th percentile across the league. Closer Paul Sewald has pitched to a 2.52 ERA with 17 saves in 53.2 innings. No discussion of the bullpen would be complete without mentioning Erik Swanson. Very quietly, Swanson has pitched to a 0.84 ERA with 54 strikeouts and just seven walks in 43 innings. Those are not even video game numbers, but somehow are better.

Seattle’s offense is led by electric rookie Julio Rodriguez. Rodriguez has hit .266 with 22 home runs and 23 stolen bases, easily putting himself in the lead for AL Rookie of the Year honors. Rodriguez has made consistent hard contact, averaging 92 mph exit velocity, ranking in the 93rd percentile. It is not all about the bat, as Rodriguez ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed, and is worth seven outs above average in center field. Eugenio Suarez has slugged a team-leading 25 home runs and 22 doubles. Ty France leads the team with a .352 on-base percentage, adding 17 home runs and 20 doubles. Seattle is tenth in the league with 154 home runs.

Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread

Cleveland’s pitching has been depleted by recent injuries, and the team will turn to rookie Xzavion Curry to make his second career big league start tonight. Curry went five innings in his debut, allowing three earned runs while striking out three batters. He has been solid in the minors, with a 4.00 ERA in 21 appearances between Double-A and Triple-A this season, striking out 116 batters in 108 innings. Curry averages 93 mph on his fastball and also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. Cleveland’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, ranking fifth with a 3.16 ERA.

Trevor Stephan has pitched to a 2.32 ERA with 65 strikeouts in his 50.1 innings. Sidearm reliever Nick Sandlin has a 2.06 ERA in 36 appearances. James Karinchak has come back from his injury and pitched to a 1.17 ERA with 41 strikeouts in his 23 innings. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been dominant, with a 1.15 ERA and 30 saves in 58 appearances.

Cleveland’s offense is led by Jose Ramirez, who paces the club with 26 home runs, 106 RBI, and 39 doubles, with a .282/.352/.541 slash line. Ramirez has once again turned in a remarkable season, but this year, he has some different faces helping him out. Josh Naylor is second on the team with 16 home runs, with a .450 slugging percentage. Andres Gimenez leads the team with a .302 batting average, adding 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Rookie Steven Kwan has impressed all season, with a .293 batting average, 21 doubles, and 12 stolen bases. Cleveland has the least amount of strikeouts on the season, with 901, one of just four teams to stay below 1,000 on the season.

Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick

Robbie Ray is tough for any team to overcome.

Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Seattle -1.5 (+100), over 7.5 (-115)

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