By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
Class is back in session!
I’m sure many of you are watching the New York Yankees carefully as they try to avoid a complete collapse to end the regular season. So for today’s lesson, let’s examine the biggest factor behind the loss of their stranglehold on the top seed in the American League.
Injuries.
All-Star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t played since the end of July with left Achilles tendinitis, while third baseman Josh Donaldson is out with a stomach bug.
Starting pitcher Luis Severino may return next month, but Albert Abreu was just placed on the 15-day injured list.
Every team goes through injuries, but let’s dive into how we can use them to our advantage before making futures bets.
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When placing futures wagers, it may seem overwhelming to keep up with almost every team’s injury news. Fortunately, there are resources to help you.
The first is from Spotrac, which features a cumulative injured list by team. This resource adds up the number of players who have spent time on the IL, how many days they’ve been unavailable and how much money the ball club spent on players who couldn’t play. One key point is that it’s not necessarily the total amount spent that is important, but the percentage of payroll affected by injuries.
For instance, the Nationals and Dodgers rank third and fourth, respectively, in total dollars, but because Los Angeles has a much larger payroll, it’s a much smaller piece of their pie.
As of right now, the teams that have lost the biggest proportion of their payroll to injuries are the Nationals (31.9%), Red Sox (25.1%) and Rays (22.43%). The healthiest ball clubs are the Guardians (2.87%), Rangers (6.5%) and Brewers (7.19%).
Baseball Prospectus’ Injured List Ledger, is another great tool to dig into when it comes to injuries. This resource breaks down exactly who has been injured, the nature of the injury and when it occurred. However, unlike Spotrac, this list also measures how much value was lost in Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) due to injury. Note that you will need a subscription to access this tool.
Knowing injury history is useful, but what matters more is predicting future health, especially come postseason time. Many data scientists have attempted this challenge by isolating key factors, such as age, injury history and playing style (eg how fast pitchers throw) for improving predictions. While there’s a lot of variance in these predictions — and in our case another month-and-a-half remaining in the regular season where anything can happen — what we can do is estimate which competitive squads are in the best positions to be healthy.
First, let’s look at a team I’d wait for a better price on, aka hold.
New York Yankees (+450 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
The Yankees have the oldest offense in the bigs (more than 30 years old) and pitching staff in the middle of the pack (29.2 years). Perhaps we should have expected some injuries at this point in the season.
While more of the injuries have affected pitchers lately, the offense has had recent struggles outside of Aaron Judge. Looking at current active rosters, since the All-Star Break, the Yankees rank 17th in on-base percentage (.316) and 16th in weighted on-base average (.316).
Next, here is the club you want to fade.
Tampa Bay Rays (+3300 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Unfortunately for the Rays, they’ll be without outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, catcher Mike Zunino and probably pitcher Tyler Glasnow for the rest of the season. Not to mention, shortstop Wander Franco was pulled from his rehab assignment. When your payroll is smaller than almost everyone else’s, health matters that much more.
Finally, here are the teams worth betting on. Aka buy now!
Philadelphia Phillies (+2500 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
While the Phils have eight players on the IL, the one player grabbing the most attention is defending MVP Bryce Harper. He had thumb surgery nearly two months ago and his rehab assignment is scheduled for this week. Assuming that goes well, he should return in plenty of time to have enough big league action to be a force for the postseason. Even in limited action, Harper has an expected batting average of .320 and an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, both among the best in MLB. If he comes back healthy, this is a good price for the Phillies.
Cleveland Guardians (+5000 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
With all of their youth, Cleveland has spent the fewest dollars on IL stints. That’s a great combination.
Baseball-Reference compiles average hitting and pitching ages and lists the Guardians as the youngest hitting ball club and the youngest pitching team. One of their top hitters in Andres Gimenez is just 23 years old and the second-most accomplished starting pitcher in Triston McKenzie is only 24. To have that much youth be that successful is a great sign of health going forward.
Correctly anticipating a team’s health can be a significant advantage when betting futures. It’s easier said than done, but the key indicators are available to us: overall age and experience of star players, which pitchers overexert themselves and which stars have lengthy injury histories.
Applying that information is good news for backers of Philadelphia and Cleveland. Having nearly everyone available for both teams right now is a convincing reason for me to bet on them to make the postseason (and for Cleveland, to win the division at +155).
At the other end of the spectrum, while the Yankees should overcome their problems and still be dangerous in October, I would not bet on the Rays to continue their postseason streak. In other words, I am not ready to back, say, the Astros to win the pennant just because of New York’s injury history (in fact there’s value in taking them to win the AL at +200), but as I’ve mentioned beforeI have more reason to believe Tampa Bay will miss the postseason.
Class dismissed!
PICK: Phillies to win World Series (+2500 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $260 total)
PICK: Guardians to win World Series (+5000 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $510 total)
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Ttweet @EdWithSports.
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