The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will finish their four-game series in the Bronx on Sunday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Blue Jays-Yankees prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Blue Jays won the first three games of this series, pushing their record to 65-54, still second place in the AL East. Toronto is seven games behind the Yankees but in the second AL Wild Card spot. This lineup is deep and talented, but the pitching needs to catch up for a playoff run.
New York has suffered through a brutal stretch for about six weeks now. Still, the Yankees’ record sits at 73-48, second-best in the American League. A 2-8 stretch in their last 10 games is indicative of the awful baseball they have been playing of late.
Here are the Blue Jays-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Yankees-Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (+172)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (-210)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Alek Manoah, Toronto’s best starting pitcher, will look to complete the sweep of division rival New York. Manoah has a 12-6 record with a 2.71 ERA in 23 starts. Manoah’s slider is the secret, holding batters to a .199 batting average, resulting in 47 strikeouts in 161 at-bats. In his career, Manoah has pitched to a 2.48 ERA in 29 career innings against the Yankees, striking out 30 batters.
Toronto’s bullpen ranks 13th with a 3.74 ERA, a solid group. David Phelps, Adam Cimber, and Yimi Garcia all have ERAs below 3.00 to help form a bridge to closer Jordan Romano. Romano has pitched to a 2.40 ERA with 26 saves in 45 appearances. Batters have hit just .189 against the hard-throwing righty.
Offensively, Toronto has bashed 150 home runs, the seventh-highest total in the league. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit 26 home runs to lead the team, while Matt Chapman has added 24 of his own. Guerrero makes some of the hardest contact in baseball, with his average exit velocity of 93.2 mph ranking in the 98th percentile. Nearly 53% of the batted balls off Guerrero’s bat are classified as hard-hit, also in the top 3% of the league. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has hit .304 with 12 home runs, walking more than he has struck out. Leadoff hitter George Springer has suffered a couple of injuries, but he has hit 18 home runs and stolen 10 bases in his 93 games this season.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
New York still has one of the best rosters in the league despite the recent down trend. Offensively, the team still has impressive power, leading the league with 196 home runs and 464 walks. Still, their record is just 4-14 in the month of August. But as long as MVP candidate Aaron Judge is in the lineup, there is a chance to win the game. Judge has launched 46 home runs and driven in 102 runs, both totals that lead the league. Anthony Rizzo has belted 28 home runs, with a .336 on-base percentage and stellar defense at first base. DJ Lemahieu has hit .278 with 12 home runs and 18 doubles, walking 61 times while striking out just 63 times. Recently, when the offense is going right, the pitching is going wrong, and vice versa. When things start to click again, this team can be unstoppable like they were for the majority of the season.
Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees in this one, bringing with him his own personal mustachioed fan club. Cortes has pitched to a 2.74 ERA in 22 starts this season, striking out 128 in 125 innings. Cortes has thrown his fastball and cutter nearly 75% of the time, holding batters to below a .200 batting average on both offerings.
New York’s bullpen is one of the most impressive groups in the league, with a 3.01 ERA that ranks second. Rookie sensation Ron Marinaccio has been a revelation, with a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings pitched. Marinaccio’s changeup has baffled batters to a .050 batting average against it, with 18 of the 40 at-bats ending in a strikeout. Closer has been a bit of an issue of late, with Clay Holmes on the Injured List and Aroldis Chapman being shaky at best. Newly acquired Scott Effross has been solid, pitching to a 3.24 ERA in his eight appearances with the team. Effross throws nearly 41% sliders, and for good reason, with batters hitting just .156 against the frisbee offering. Pitching has not been the issue of late for the club.
Final Blue Jays-Yankees Prediction & Pick
There is just no way that the Yankees will continue playing as poorly as they have been and get swept in four games at home.
Final Blue Jays-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-210), under 7.5 (-110)
