It is a rematch of last year’s World Series as the Houston Astros head to the Deep South to take on the team that eliminated them, the Atlanta Braves. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Braves prediction and pick.
These teams met in an exciting World Series last season where most people thought the Astros would destroy the Braves. Instead, the Braves won the series 4-2, including two of three in Houston, and a deciding Game 6 shutout win in front of a stunned attendance at Minute Maid Park. Now, these teams will meet for the first time since that epic series, with the Astros looking to prove they are behind it.
The Astros are 7-3 over 10 games and just drubbed the Chicago White Sox 21-5. Also, they currently have the best record in the AL and are in a position to have home-field advantage throughout most of the playoffs (the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best overall record in baseball). The Braves are 8-2 over 10 games, having taken two of three from the New York Mets. Likewise, they are setting themselves up for a nice playoff run.
Lance McCullers Jr. will start for the Astros. McCullers is 1-0 with an 0.00 ERA. Recently, he made his 2022 debut, tossing six scoreless innings while allowing two hits with five strikeouts and four walks. McCullers did not pitch in last year’s World Series due to an injury.
Kyle Wright makes the start for the Braves. Wright is 14-5 with a 3.14 ERA. Recently, he tossed six innings while allowing one earned run on six hits with five strikeouts. Wright is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA over two starts in August. Significantly, he made two appearances in last year’s Fall Classic, going 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA over 5 2/3 innings of relief.
This will be a World Series rematch, and possibly a preview for Round 2. Ultimately, both teams are hitting their stride at the right moment with the playoffs a few weeks away.
Here are the Astros-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Braves Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-192)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
The Astros have plenty of weapons but Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are among the best they can showcase. Altuve is batting .279 with 20 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 68 runs. Likewise, he is batting .340 (18 for 53) with one home run, seven RBIs, and nine runs over 13 regular season games against the Braves. Altuve produced an average of .222 (6 for 27) with two home runs, two RBIs, and six runs in the World Series against Atlanta.
Bregman is hitting .264 with 18 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 70 runs over 115 games. Additionally, he is batting .313 (5 for 16) with two RBIs and four runs over four career regular-season games against Atlanta. Bregman performed poorly in the Fall Classic, hitting .095 (2 for 21) with two RBIs and two runs.
The Astros will cover the spread if McCullers can deliver another top-notch outing. Moreover, Houston needs Altuve, Bregman, and the rest of the Houston lineup to produce in ways they did not last season. The Astros must jump on Atlanta’s pitching and hold serve.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
World Series hero Freddie Freeman is gone, but the Braves still have weapons like Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Dansby Swanson. Riley is batting .289 with 30 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 69 runs over 118 games. Last year, Riley produced a .320 batting average (8 for 25) with three RBIs, and one run during the World Series.
Acuna Jr. is batting .272 with 10 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 52 runs in 2022. However, he did not play in last year’s Fall Classic and will look to make an impact. Swanson is batting .292 with 16 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 76 runs. Last season, Swanson became a hero in Game 4 of the World Series with a crucial home run. He produced a stat line of .200 (4 for 20) with two home runs, three RBIs, and three runs during the Fall Classic.
The Braves have endured plenty this season, and remain a contender due to great pitching and timely hitting. Thus, they hope to continue the trend today.
The Braves will cover the spread if Wright pitches well, and can limit the damage the Astros may inflict. Likewise, they need their hitters to cover all angles and spray the ball to all sides of the outfield.
Final Astros-Braves Prediction & Pick
These two teams are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs. Now, the world gets to see which team can maintain its momentum. As for this game, McCullers is great. But it is difficult to see him keeping runners off the basepaths for too long. The Braves are a lot more patient than most and will make McCullers pay if he issues four walks again. Expect the Braves to cover the spread, by a small margin.
Final Astros-Braves Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+158)
