ESPN’s panel of baseball writers and broadcasters thinks the Red Sox might sign Xander Bogaerts and probably won’t sign any other big-name free agents.
ESPN’s baseball team of Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee, Kiley McDaniel, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield predicted where each of the top free agents would sign and what their contracts were likely to look like when they do.
The Red Sox by far and away outdistanced any specific individual team among the predictions. But comparing Red Sox to Non-Red Sox, it was just 4-3, which is unlikely to ease anyone’s concerns.
- Xander Bogaerts rumors: Red Sox have ‘made at least two offers since the season ended’ (report)
Here’s what they predicted for Bogaerts:
McDaniel: Boston Red Sox, six years, $168 million
Doolittle: Chicago Cubs, six years, $180 million
Schoenfield: Los Angeles Angels, six years, $184 million
Rogers: Giants (or Cubs), six years, $180 million
Lee: Red Sox, six years, $175 million
Olney: Red Sox, five years, $150 million
González: Red Sox, seven years, $196 million
Notable: None of the ESPN experts thought the Red Sox would sign a top-shelf shortstop other than Bogaerts. They each had Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson headed elsewhere.
In fact, the only major free agent that any member of ESPN’s panel had going to the Red Sox was Japanese righty Kodai Senga. Joon Lee wrote:
“Kodai Senga, Red Sox, five years, $85 million. Boston has been a destination for many Japanese players, and the Red Sox will need to improve their rotation, especially if Nathan Eovaldi leaves in free agency.”
- Red Sox rumors: Boston contacts Kodai Senga, free agent P from Japan (report)
The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Jim Bowden each projected possible contract terms for the top free agents.
Heyman, who is frequently a source of information for Scott Boras clients, had a loftier prediction for Bogaerts’ salary and term than his ESPN’s counterparts. He wrote:
“(Bogaerts) badly wanted to stay in Boston last time, but after getting a low offer in spring, that can’t be assumed anymore. Teams: Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers, Twins, Cardinals, Phillies, Giants. Expert: $225M, 8 years.”
Bowden was closer to the ESPN crew. He wrote:
“Best fits: Red Sox, Braves, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies, Twins, Orioles, Angels Contract prediction: 7 years, $196 million”
Unlike ESPN and Heyman, Bowden speculated on Red Sox free agent pitcher Nate Eovaldi as well:
“Best fits: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Angels, Mets, Cardinals, Giants – Contract prediction: 4 years, $90 million”