The first-ever MLB draft lottery will be held Tuesday and the Red Sox — as a result of their poor play in 2022 — actually have a slight chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
To combat tanking, MLB’s latest collective bargaining agreement instituted a new draft lottery that will determine the top six picks in each year’s draft. Previously, the draft order was determined by the reverse order of standings. Now, the worst teams from the previous year have the best chances to earn top picks, but nothing’s guaranteed.
The last-place Red Sox had the 14th-worst record in baseball in 2022. Because all 18 teams who didn’t make the postseason are lottery-eligible, Boston qualified to be part of the process. The Red Sox have a 0.8% chance of landing the first overall pick when the results are announced live on MLB Network at 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday night.
Here’s how it works (via MLB.com):
“For the first time, the order of the top six Draft picks will be determined by lottery instead of simply being the reverse order of the previous year’s standings.
“The teams with the three worst records in 2022 — the Nationals, A’s and Pirates — have the best chance (16.5 percent each) to get the No. 1 overall pick via the lottery, although all 18 non-playoff teams will have the chance to land it. The other teams will have declining percentages in reverse order of their records, down to 0.23 percent for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage.
“Any team in the lottery that doesn’t land one of the top six picks will pick in reverse order of standings for picks 7-18. For example, if the Brewers don’t get one of the lottery picks, they will pick 18th overall.”
Here are the draft lottery odds:
1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5 pct
2. A’s (60-102), 16.5
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5
4. Reds (62-100), 13.2
5. Royals (65-97), 10.0
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.5
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.5
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.9
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.7
10. Angels (73-89), 1.8
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.4
12. Cubs (74-88), 1.11
3. Twins (78-84), 0.9
14. Red Sox (78-84), 0.8
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.6
16. Giants (81-81), 0.5
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.4
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.2